However, winning back the House is not just about having better maps. Indeed, if we remain fifteen seats outside the majority, as we currently are, even new maps will not make taking back the House an easy task. Further, if we continue to leave 30-40 seats uncontested every two years, the party as a whole will suffer.
To win back the House, we need to attack everywhere. Here is my goal:
The order is by percentage of victory, from lowest to highest. Win% Outcome% 2002% 1. Indiana 9 Mike Sodrel 0.5% 49.5-49.0% 2. Pennsylvania 6 Jim Gerlach 2.0% 51.0-49.0% 51.4% 3. Washington 8 Dave Reichert 4.8% 51.5-46.7% 4. Connecticut 4 Chris Shays 4.8% 52.4-47.6% 64.4% 5. Colorado 4 Marilyn Musgrave 6.2% 51.0-44.8% 54.9% 6. Minnesota 6 Mark Kennedy 8.0% 54.0-46.0% 57.3% 7. Connecticut 2 Rob Simmons 8.4% 54.2-45.8% 54.1% 8. Indiana 8 John Hostettler 8.9% 53.4-44.5% 51.3% 9. New Mexico 1 Heather Wilson 8.9% 54.4-45.5% 55.3% 10. Indiana 2 Chris Chocola 9.7% 54.2-44.5% 50.5% 11. North Carolina 11 Charles Taylor 9.8% 54.9-45.1% 55.5% 12. New York 29 Randy Kuhl 9.9% 50.7-40.8% 13. Louisiana 7 Charles Boustany 10.0% 55.0-45.0% 14. Texas 32 Pete Sessions 10.3% 54.3-44.0% 15. Virginia 2 Thelma Drake 10.3% 55.1-44.8% 16. Kentucky 4 Geoff Davis 10.5% 54.4-43.9% 17. Florida 13 Katherine Harris 10.6% 55.3-44.7% 54.8% 18. California 26 David Drier 10.8% 53.6-42.8% 63.8% 19. North Carolina 8 Robin Hayes 11.0% 55.5-44.5% 53.6% 20. New York 26 Tom Reynolds 11.2% 55.6-44.4% 73.7% 21. Nebraska 1 Jeff Fortenberry 11.2% 54.2-43.0% 22. Illinois 6 Henry Hyde 11.6% 55.8-44.2% 65.1% 23. Colorado 7 Bob Beauprez 11.9% 54.7-42.8% 47.3% 24. Iowa 1 Jim Nussle 11.9% 55.2-43.3% 57.2% 25. Pennsylvania 8 Mike Fitzpatrick 12.0% 55.3-44.3% 26. Texas 2 Ted Poe 12.6% 55.5-42.9% 27. Wyoming Barbara Cubin 13.5% 55.3-41.8% 60.5% 28. Nevada 3 Jon Porter 14.0% 54.4-40.4% 56.1% 29. Texas 22 Tom Delay 14.1% 55.2-41.1% 63.2% 30. Georgia 11 Phil Gingrey 14.8% 57.4-42.6% 51.6% 31. Kansas 2 Jim Ryun 14.9% 56.1-41.2% 60.4% 32. New Jersey 7 Mike Ferguson 15.3% 57.0-41.7% 58.0% 33. Michigan 11 Thad McCotter 16.0% 57.0-41.0% 57.2% 34. Minnesota 2 John Kline 16.1% 56.4-40.3% 57.3% 35. WV 2 Shelley Capito 16.2% 57.5-41.3% 60.0% 36. New Jersey 5 Scott Garrett 16.5% 57.6-41.1% 59.5% 37. Ohio 4 Mike Oxley 16.8% 58.6-41.4% 67.5% 38. Illinois 11 Jerry Weller 17.4% 58.7-41.3% 64.3% 39. N. Carolina 5 Virginia Foxx 17.6% 58.8-41.2% 40. New York 13 Vito Fossella 18.0% 59.0-41.0% 69.5% 41. Texas 19 Randy Neugebauer 18.3% 58.4-40.1% 42. Pennsylvania 7 Curt Weldon 18.4% 58.8-40.4% 66.1% 43. Michigan 9 Joe Knollenberg 19.0% 58.5-39.5% 58.1% 44. Pennsylvania 15 Charlie Dent 19.2% 58.6-39.4% 45. Washington 5 Cathy McMorris 19.4% 59.7-40.3% 46. Ohio 1 Steve Chabot 19.7% 59.8-40.1% 64.8% 47. Iowa 2 Jim Leach 19.7% 58.9-39.2% 52.2%Forty-seven is a start, but we need to find at least thirty-three more. My first addition is the New York 25th, currently held by James Walsh, son of a Democratic congressmen from the same district. Despite nearly even voter registration in the district, despite the district voting for the Democratic candidate for President in four consecutive election cycles, despite it being the home of some prominent Democrats such as Terry McAullife and Michael Bragman (and it is where I grew up), and despite Walsh originally winning the seat by less than one hundred votes, the district did not have a Democratic challenger this time. This is a winnable seat, and we did not even try. This is unforgivable. I plan to not let it happen again.
Here are some more I would like to add:
Use the comments to list any Republican held seat that I did not list here that you believe Democrats could potentially win given a serious enough challenge. With every seat you list, provide an explanation for why you think a Democrat could win in that district. I will use the information to help my ongoing updates over at Our Congress. Our fight begins now.
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