MyDD :: Ginny Schrader for Congress, PA-08

Ginny Schrader for Congress, PA-08

by Chris Bowers, Thu Sep 09, 2004 at 03:00:43 PM EST

Here are the trial heat, benchmark and vulnerability poll results from PA-08, where Ginny Schrader is taking on Michael Fitzpatrick in an open, Republican held seat. All of this information comes to me through internal polls from Ginny Schrader's campaign, and thus there is no link. For starters, here are some outside factors:

Presidential Race
Kerry 48
Bush  44

Generic Congressional Ballot
Democrat   42
Republican 41

The Republican-led Congress receives a 52% negative job rating

Right now, Fitzpatrick leads in name recognition, which not surprisingly means that he leads in the trial heat:

While Republican Mike Fitzpatrick has higher name identification than Democrat Ginny Schrader, neither is known to a majority of voters. Fitzpatrick currently leads by a 46% to 30% margin with nearly one-quarter (24%) of all voters still undecided. Democrats have a natural advantage with undecided voters on the generic ballot by a 37% to 30% margin.

With that level of unknowns, clearly this is a highly volatile race, and Ginny's chances to rise are excellent. Further, here is the main benchmark result, which reveals Ginny's strength:

When voters are read the following biographical paragraph on the two candidates, Ginny Schrader takes a 48% to 45% lead over Mike Fitzpatrick.

Mike Fitzpatrick, a Republican from Middletown, is a Bucks County Commissioner and a lawyer. Fitzpatrick says that as a County Commissioner, he has worked to prevent domestic violence, secure flood relief for local families. and pass the county's land-conservation program. In Congress, he says he will fight for better jobs and economic development, and more help for local governments to preserve open space.

Ginny Schrader, a Democrat from Lower Makefield, is a former Vice President of a financial services company. Schrader says she understands the needs of working families because she has lived in their shoes. She was a single mother who went to college at night, and struggled to make ends meet before becoming a successful businesswoman. In Congress, she says she will fight to control healthcare costs, improve education, and create new jobs

Fitzpatrick's main vulnerability comes from his extreme anti-choice stance:

A majority (54%) of 8th district voters are pro-choice, with an additional 28% favoring exceptions like rape, incest and the life of the mother. Republican Mike Fitzpatrick is pro-life and opposes the right of a woman to have an abortion even in the case of rape and incest. Two-thirds of pro-choice voters say they would either "definitely" vote against (30%) or "probably" vote against a pro-life candidate. Fifty-nine percent (59%) of voters say they would be less likely to vote for Fitzpatrick when they hear about his extreme positions on abortion, including 43% of Fitzpatrick's current supporters.

So the situation here is really quite simple. If Ginny can raise her name recognition, get her message out and make Fitzpatrick's extreme anti-choice position clear, then she will win and Democrats will pick up a seat in the House. If her name recognition remains low, then she will probably lose the district. Thus, raising her name recognition and getting her message out are the keys to victory. We can do this through volunteering, publicity, and, of course, through donations.

I am asking readers of MyDD and Swing State Project to make donating to Ginny Schrader their number one Congressional donation priority. You can make donations either through the ActBlue account DavidNYC already set up for Ginny (where he has already raised over $900), or through the Dailykos Dozen, where Ginny's formal endorsement will be announced soon and where nearly $800 has already been raised.

We can make a difference in this race, a difference between picking up a seat for a real progressive or allowing it to backslide toward an archconservative. We helped bring this race to the fore--let's help close the deal as well. Our small donations of $25-$50 make a huge difference. Donate today.

Tags: House 2006 (all tags)