Newsweek Poll Horribly Weighted

by Chris Bowers, Sat Sep 04, 2004 at 03:48:42 PM EST

There have been three major studies on party identification within the past year, one released by Harris in late February, one conducted by Pew in June and July, and the other conducted by the National Annenberg Election Survey during the first three weeks of July. Combined, the three surveys interviewed nearly 30,000 people, with Pew coming in at 19,118, Harris weighing in at over 6,000 and NAES at 3,715 registered voters out of 4,275 interviews. All three surveys had very low margins for error and weighted their results to reflect national demographics. Their results were as follows: 
	DNC  RNC  IND  NA
Harris	33   28   24   15
Pew	33   29   --   38
NAES	34   32   24   10
The reliability and sheer size of these three polls make one thing pretty clear. Right now, Party ID in this country, when leaners are not pushed, is 33% Democrat, 29% Republican, and 38% independent / not aligned. Considering this, much of the bounce from the Newsweek poll is generated by poorly weighted Party ID numbers. 
	   Party ID  Bush Kerry    Und/Oth
Republican   38%       94    4	   2
Democrat     31%       14   82	   4
Independent  31%       45   40	  15
Total	    100%      52   41	   7
However, if the sample was properly weighted, here are what the results would look like: 
	   Party ID  Bush  Kerry   Und/Oth
Republican   29%      94      4	   2
Democrat     33%      14     82	   4
Independent  38%      45     40	  15
Total	    100%     49.0   43.4     7.6
The number one mistake a pollster can make is to conduct a survey from an unrepresentative sample population. That is exactly what Newsweek has done. Of course Bush is going to lead in a poll with a sample that is disproportionately made up of Republicans. In reality, in the Newsweek poll Kerry is only down by 5.6 in a three way trial heat, and thus is probably only down by 4 or 5 in a two way trial heat.

Five points is a lot less than eleven, especially when one considers that this is probably Bush's peak (almost every candidate reaches their peak immediately after their convention). Kerry is clearly in the game. Spread the word--this poll stinks.




Tags: General 2008 (all tags)

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Unfortunate (none / 0)

It's unfortunate that two major polls released just after the RNC appear to suffer from serious methodological problems.  The media all too easily jumps on the results from one poll as the Word of God.  Two polls, in their eyes, surely define reality itself.

We really won't know, until comprehensive polling done next week, the true state of this race.

by Anonymous Citizen on Sat Sep 04, 2004 at 03:53:14 PM EST

Re: Unfortunate (none / 0)

ABC did exactly the same thing after the DNC convention. They released a poll with 39-29 Dem to GOP ID, which is bogus. Not surprisingly, that poll showed a large lead for Kerry. In my more cynical moments I wonder if some firms do this intentionally just so that get more press by producing wild results.
by Chris Bowers on Sat Sep 04, 2004 at 04:03:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Unfortunate (none / 0)

It certainly wouldn't surprise me.  The media does love sensational headlines, after all.
by Anonymous Citizen on Sat Sep 04, 2004 at 04:23:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Unfortunate (none / 0)

They also love corporate tax cuts
by Anonymous Citizen on Sat Sep 04, 2004 at 05:54:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

What about the Time poll? (none / 0)

Either Zogby and Rasmussen (close to each other) are wrong, or Time and Newsweek (close to each other) are wrong. Did Time oversample Republicans too? (Not a rhetorical question-- please post breakdowns if you can find them.)

Someone who WANTED the Time results to be true would probably claim that a few dozen of the respondents "decided" that they were Republicans this week! (Same could be true of the LA Times poll from July which seemed to oversample Dems and put JFK up by 7.)

A DailyKos thread quoted a Scott Rasmussen memo (but no link) explaining why Scott R disagreed with Time and Newsweek. Anyone else seen it?

by Anonymous Citizen on Sat Sep 04, 2004 at 04:02:24 PM EST

Re: What about the Time poll? (none / 0)

Newsweek isn't wrong when their results are properly weighted. It is somewhat better for Bush than the others, but it was taken only on Thuirsday and Friday, unlike ARG or Zogby. They also pushed leaners harder than those other two. Supposedly Rasmussen himself has claimed that the same bogus weighting and pushing took place in the Time poll as took place here. I'll be on the lookout for internals to see if this is true.
by Chris Bowers on Sat Sep 04, 2004 at 04:07:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What about the Time poll? (none / 0)

Rasmussen did a similar re-weighting of party I.D. on the Time poll and comes up with a 3-4% lead for Bush.  He claims the poll is way off.  Who the hell knows what reality is.  Its clear Bush has a lead, though.  Time to work our asses off even harder.

by Anonymous Citizen on Sat Sep 04, 2004 at 10:15:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Sorry Newsweek is wrong... (none / 0)

There's no way that Bush will win the GOP voters by 94-4, Kerry lose one out of seven Democrats to Bush, and independents suddenly shift to Bush by 5%!

Nothing happened at the GOP convention to suddenly bring this political earthquake!  

Bush may have a slight lead - 2-4% - at max.  That's my opinion, and I have usually very good political instincts!

by Anonymous Citizen on Sat Sep 04, 2004 at 05:10:32 PM EST

Re: Sorry Newsweek is wrong... (none / 0)

I am rooting for your instincts, but the GOP smears are going to get worse, so our guy had better start fighting back.
by Anonymous Citizen on Sat Sep 04, 2004 at 05:47:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

This is a golden opportunity for Kerry (none / 0)

If Chris is right and the polls are showing an artifical boost for Bush, this is the time for Kerry to come out and say, "I don't care about the polls. I care about my principles, and they will never sway with the political breeze." He can then forcefully state his most important beliefs, assuming of course that he has decided what they are. This election is a referendum on Kerry's toughness. A majority of voters will throw Bush over the side if they are comfortable that Kerry is not weak. This period of adversity, exaggerated though it may be, provides Kerry with a chance to prove he has a backbone.
by Anonymous Citizen on Sat Sep 04, 2004 at 05:22:54 PM EST

Re: This is a golden opportunity for Kerry (none / 0)

Harry Truman would be the perfect Dem to oppose Bush, because what is needed here is a fighter who just keeps slugging away regardless of what anyone says. Alas, we have Hamlet at the top of the ticket. The only chance Kerry has is to employ a scorched earth policy, and I don't know that he has it in him. Then again, he killed dozens in Nam, so maybe there is a Bob Dole style dark side in Kerry just waiting to get out. Better not wait much longer.
by Anonymous Citizen on Sat Sep 04, 2004 at 05:41:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: This is a golden opportunity for Kerry (none / 0)

Clinton would kill Bush. Eat him up and spit him out. So would Bob Kennedy. I think Hillary would have beaten him, too.
by Anonymous Citizen on Sat Sep 04, 2004 at 05:50:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: This is a golden opportunity for Kerry (none / 0)

come on, all Bush would have to do is ask Clinton what steps he took following the first WTC attacks, the Beirut attack, the Kohl attack etc., and compare Clinton's "response" with those by Bush.  Game set match, Bush wins.
by Anonymous Citizen on Sat Sep 04, 2004 at 10:11:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: This is a golden opportunity for Kerry (none / 0)

Clinton took steps that resulted in the 1999 New Year's Eve attack on LAX being thwarted, and proposed $2 billion in airport security upgrades that would have prevented 9/11. Unfortunately, DeLay opposed greater spending on airport security as "socialism", and in 2000 Bush sided with DeLay. Clinton would pummel Bush.
by Anonymous Citizen on Sat Sep 04, 2004 at 11:27:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: This is a golden opportunity for Kerry (none / 0)

If Kerry's "great closer" rep is to believed, we may be in for a fight.

by Geotpf on Sat Sep 04, 2004 at 07:49:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Another Lost Opportunity (none / 0)

I've been a Democrat my whole life. More than just ideology it's the principles, the history, innate rightness of what the party represents that excites me and made me a Democrat. But it's increasingly we don't know how to win elections and are well on the way to being a 50-year minority party.  

In 2002, the economy was in terrible shape, Bush was rattling the swords for a war with a Iraq that most in the country did not support, and we let Republicans gain seats in both houses of congress.

This year, when Bush's approval numbers are negative, the economy has still not recovered, Bush will be the first president to have a net job loss since Hoover, there is no end in sight in Iraq as we approach 1,000 US dead, Al Queda is still active, our nominee will lose and lose handily.  

Face it: John Kerry has run an inept and amatuerish campaign. He's kept the Swift Boat attacks alive by making such an issue of them. Send Max Cleland to Bush's ranch, spending news cycle after news cyle calling on Bush to condemn them. John McCain gave him the perfect defense calling them "dishonest and dishonorable." It gave JFK the out to say "I agree with the Senator and I want to focus on the real issues of lost jobs, lost healthcare, and a dangerous foreign policy.

He's willing to fight back, but in such a delayed fashion that no one remembers the issue. Bush said last week that he didn't think the war on terror could be won. The response from Kerry-Edwards was non existant. They should have pummeled him. Surrogates should have been in front of every reporter mocking Bush as they mock Kerry for the "sensitive war on terror" comment. But, nothing.

During the Boston convention, the Republicans put out instant response to every speech, every issue. In New York, there was nothing. A half-hearted response to Zell Miller's angry, bitter, and dishonerable attack on John Kerry's patriotism.

The Time and Newsweek polls may be inflated, but I doubt by much. It's clear that Bush is in the lead and should now be considered the favorite to win. He has solid support in his base in the heartland and the south. Without a turn around, expect Kerry to lose Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Mexico, Pennsylvania and Washignton.

There's still time to turn things around, but it's grim for the Democratic ticket which means it's grim for the country. Maybe the campaign will get a clue, wake up from the dirt nap they're taking and save this election. I have a feeling, though, that we'll watch Terry McAuliffe predict a 320+ electoral landslide on November 2nd and then eat a hearty helping of crow on November 3rd.

 

by Anonymous Citizen on Sat Sep 04, 2004 at 05:32:48 PM EST

Re: Another Lost Opportunity (none / 0)

All true, but remember that Bush is totally inept. From business to government to the economy to the budget to national security, he has always been a failure. In 2000, he blew a 23 point lead against Gore and had to be dragged across the finish line by Scalia. Never misunderestimate the ability of Bush to fuck up. He is the master.
by Anonymous Citizen on Sat Sep 04, 2004 at 05:37:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Another Lost Opportunity (none / 0)

Look ...

The best thing you can do right now is volunteer for the local office of the Kerry/Edwards campaign, the local Democratic party, or ACT. Register people to vote, work on GOTV efforts, etc.

At this point we just have to hope that those at the top know WTF they are doing, if not we have to hope that our collective efforts are enough to put Kerry (and democrats in general) over the top.

As for Washington state I wouldn't worry too much, while it is tighter than say New York it is fairly unlikely Bush will win here.

Or to put it another way it is tight enough that I think people should stay here and help Kerry (and the other statewide races) rather than going to Oregon and Nevada but it isn't nearly as tight as either of those states.

by Anonymous Citizen on Sun Sep 05, 2004 at 06:28:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Another Lost Opportunity (none / 0)

If we REALLY want to get dirty, we need to get 1000s in swing states to volunteer for Bush/Cheney!!!

THey volunteer, then when they are on an assignment, they treat people rudely, start throwing hate out their etc.  Say stuff like "Vote Bush and lets end all rights for those F-ing homos";  Or if you believe in abortion, you are going to hell.  VOte Bush.  Infiltrate the campaign and work on taking it down from the inside.  

by Anonymous Citizen on Sun Sep 05, 2004 at 03:53:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The danger (none / 0)

for Kerry is that his supporters have never been passionate for him. He won the nomination when the frontrunners knocked each other off. He does not have that hard core base that Clinton had, and so he is vulnerable to having his supporters become discouraged by these polls. Being paranoid, I tend to think that fact was not lost on Time and Newsweek. In any event, Kerry needs to inspire the base with more red meat. Swing voters seem to dig ridicule, and on that front Bush is certainly an "asset rich target" as they say in the military, so go for the jugular, Johnny. You might start by mentioning that on 9/11 you did not cower in a Nebraska bunker, just as during the Vietnam War you were not lying face down in a series of Alabama saloons.
by Anonymous Citizen on Sat Sep 04, 2004 at 05:33:57 PM EST

Southern white (none / 0)

The poll also has a large number of southern whites.  Unless they include Texas, etc, this is also skewed.  What's up with the polls?????
by Anonymous Citizen on Sat Sep 04, 2004 at 05:39:18 PM EST

Rasmussen (none / 0)

Didn't Rasmussen have Bush up 9 points the day before the election in 2000? Aren't Time Warner/Time and the Washington Post Company/Newsweek both extremely pro-Bush? Kerry may be in trouble, but I am suspicious of these sources, just as I refuse to believe the Fox reporters on anything unless there is confirmation from actual human beings.
by Anonymous Citizen on Sat Sep 04, 2004 at 05:45:46 PM EST

Re: Rasmussen (none / 0)

The IBD/TIPP poll had Dubya up by ten right before the election and had him with 400 electoral votes, so these pollsters are guesstimators and their conclusions should be considered without necessarily being believed. Let's see some more evidence that Bush is far ahead.
by Anonymous Citizen on Sat Sep 04, 2004 at 05:53:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rasmussen (none / 0)

You are right. But, in 2000, state by state polls did indicate what was likely to happen. Wait for the state by state polls.
by Anonymous Citizen on Sun Sep 05, 2004 at 12:56:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rasmussen (none / 0)

None of the 2000 polls got it right. All of them skewed toward Bush. Don't get faked out by these liars. Kerry will win.
by Anonymous Citizen on Sun Sep 05, 2004 at 05:22:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Pew Poll (none / 0)

Go check out Pew's website and look at their most recent party identification poll.

http://people-press.org/commentary/display.php3?AnalysisID=95

Democratic: 33%
Republican: 29%

With leaners:

Democratic: 47%
Republican: 41%

by Anonymous Citizen on Sat Sep 04, 2004 at 06:16:52 PM EST

Re: Pew Poll (none / 0)

Thank you very much. Very useful.
by Chris Bowers on Sat Sep 04, 2004 at 07:33:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Polls (none / 0)

Is it just me or ,does anyone else find it a bit strange,that both the Time poll,and the Newsweek poll has the very same results.When was the last time anyone saw two polls the very same numbers...from so-called two different sources.Both have 52-41.I say Bush received a 3-6 point bounce at best.Anf I still predict that Kerry will win by no more than 2 points.Kerry...50.49..Bush...48.47..Kerry EV..285..Bush...253....I have been corect since 1972.Of course one could say that I am overdue for a miss...but I do not think so.

Zayin Cohen

by Anonymous Citizen on Sat Sep 04, 2004 at 06:20:33 PM EST

Re: Polls (5.00 / 1)

Pairs of polls agree all the time (see www.pollingreport.com). It may be that Time and Newsweek oversampled Republicans for the same reasons (classic one: who's home and chooses to answer the phone during the Republican convention? People who want to stay home to watch the Republican convention). It may also be that 5% of respondents decided to start calling themselves Republicans after watching the convention (or turning against Kerry), which would make Time and Newsweek both right, Rasmussen and Zogby both wrong. Either way we've got a pair of polls which agree with each other but not with another pair.
by Anonymous Citizen on Sun Sep 05, 2004 at 03:09:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Plus Hurricane Frances (none / 0)

I don't think that many residents of Florida's East Coast were answering phone polls on 9/2-3, and I have to believe that they skew Democratic.
by EvanstonDem on Sun Sep 05, 2004 at 03:51:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Typo (none / 0)

Sorry for the typo.Imeant and..not anf...

Zayin

by Anonymous Citizen on Sat Sep 04, 2004 at 06:21:48 PM EST

Polls (none / 0)

I would like to remind everyone of something here.I have been calling Elections every year since 1972.I have Yet to be incorrect.I will not disclose how I do it,but I will reveal this.It has nothing to do with poll Numbers.Now about polls.As we all know National Polls DO NOT show the EV.but the PV.Now to prove how wrong they can be. (and are).In 2000 Every National Poll showed Bush/Cheney..even Gallup...with a 1-4 point lead in the PV.Not one single poll was correct.Al Gore won the PV,by over 500,000 votes.And I think the Election,but that is another subject.Now I will admit that State polls do hold some value,but they are not craved in Stone either.So here are the nunbers that will be reality on 2 NOV 2004....EV...Kerry 285-295...Bush...243-253..PV..Kerry 50.49%..Bush 48.47% Other..1.04%...Senate 2005...49 Dems..51 Reps..50..1.Ind.Dems will pick up Co.AK,IL.Hold on to NC,FL,LA.but lose SC,AND GA....House..Dems..213...Reps..222

Zayin Cohen

by Anonymous Citizen on Sat Sep 04, 2004 at 07:19:52 PM EST

Re: Polls (none / 0)

Zayin, still think Nader is going to drop out?

(He's an astrologer-he was posting over at the Rep-leaning Election Projection site before the guy running that site shut down the comments.)

by Geotpf on Sat Sep 04, 2004 at 07:52:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Polls (none / 0)

zayin you claim to be an astrologer who declared that it was in the stars that kerry would win. so tell me what happened ? doesn`t look very plausable now.i guess astrology is just bunk. a curious thing though a website www.starlightnews.com also called for kerry to win.hey who know`s miracles can happen.
by EXBUSHVOTER on Sat Sep 04, 2004 at 08:52:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

There's a 100% accurate way to find out party ID (none / 0)

Data on which party somebody is registered to is public information in most, if not all, states.  Just look up the actual numbers-you don't have to poll anybody.

by Geotpf on Sat Sep 04, 2004 at 07:54:03 PM EST

Not in Missouri (none / 0)

In Missouri voters do not register by party. There is no party ID on the voter file.
543,895 votes
by Michael Bersin on Sun Sep 05, 2004 at 05:53:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Party Registration (none / 0)

And that is also not an accurate indication of real party ID. For instance, I am a registered Republican. Why? Because I live in Wyoming where you can register at the polls and, also, switch your registration. Because we are such a Repub-dominated state, many of the most interesting and significant races are in the Republican party. Last month, I switched over to vote against Barbara Cubin -- I'll take every opportunity they give me. They claimed not to have enough forms to allow me to switch back after I voted, but I suspect it was retaliation for my "Somewhere in TX a village is missing its idiot" t-shirt. So I will switch again but, in Wyoming, I know you could find a lot of people at different times who are registered in a party that they feel very little affinity for.
by kainah on Mon Sep 06, 2004 at 08:06:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

the polls (none / 0)

The only poll I'm following is Rasmussen.  They show Bush up 4.4%.  I expect this to grow to five or six, but not more.

They showed Kerry with a three point bounce after his convention  Bush has gone from -2 to about +5 after his convention, but I think this will tighten.

The key to this id for Kerry be down just a couple within two weeks.  This will make it harder for Jim Baker to get rid of a debate and it will cut Bush's margin in early voting.

Having said this, it may be that the war on terrorism gives the GOP a built in edge, just like they had during the Cold War.

Then it could be a long time out of power for the Dems.

by Anonymous Citizen on Sat Sep 04, 2004 at 07:57:42 PM EST

Re: the polls (none / 0)

Don't expect Rasmussen to grow at all. Tomorrow the Wednesday sample that was so good for Bush is being removed. The Bush lead should drop to around 3 points.
by Chris Bowers on Sat Sep 04, 2004 at 07:59:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: the polls (none / 0)

Having said this, it may be that the war on terrorism gives the GOP a built in edge, just like they had during the Cold War.

If this is true, the Democratic Party should just fold its tent. After all, who was in the White House on 9/11? Who claims to have realized that Clinton left America with its guard down and then proceeded to spend half of his first 8 months as president on vacation? The Dems are too inarticulate to explain that Bush failed to protect America and is still refusing to do so? Where are the speeches and ads explaining that Bush is spending more taxpayer money to protect the borders of Iraq than to protect our own borders. Shit, is this party officially brain dead or is it still just unofficial? What we need is a plain talking Ross Perot style presentation that lays it out nice and simple: Since 9/11, al Qaida has grown in numbers while Bush has been so busy with Iraq that he has neglected to plug the holes in our own homeland defense. He is a TOTAL FAILURE on terrorism, although a rousing success at conquering defenseless little countries. He should be running for president of Afghanistan or Iraq, but America needs someone to look out for us. Believe it or not, even then crazies on talk radio are pissed at Bush about not protecting the borders from terrorist entry. This is a slam dunk - Kerry should wrap himself in the flag and pledge to change policy by DEFENDING AMERICA FIRST. It should be his campaign slogan. If he convinces people he is tough, he wins. Sorry for the length.

by Anonymous Citizen on Sat Sep 04, 2004 at 08:45:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: the polls (none / 0)

Don't apologize for the length. This is a point well worth making. Kerry must seize the high ground on patriotism, which really shouldn't be that hard when running against a traitor.
by Anonymous Citizen on Sun Sep 05, 2004 at 05:20:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Why Democrats Shouldn't Be Scared Michael Moore (none / 0)

http://www.truthout.org/docs_04/090504F.shtml
by Anonymous Citizen on Sat Sep 04, 2004 at 07:59:01 PM EST

Polls (none / 0)

Yes,Nader will be History by Oct 30th.But even if not,(which he will be)...he does not play much  in this game anyway.And no Astrology is not Bunk.I know at this point,it does not look so good for Kerry.But things can and do change quickly,in life.Look at Clinton,one day fine,next day in the hospital.I still stand by my predictions.And believe me Sept will be up and down for Kerry.But in Oct Bush will be going downward.And there are just 19 more deaths in Iraq,before it hits 1,000 Great Americans Dead.This is vey sad,but it will hurt Bush.And Clinton's health,sad as it is,will help Kerry.Life is strange,but keep watching.I will admit that I do however wish,Kerry had more balls.I would crush Bush,like the Cockroach that he is.Oh one more fun fact..John Ashcroft's Birthday is the same month and day as Hitler.Now that is odd,is it not?

Zayin

by Anonymous Citizen on Sat Sep 04, 2004 at 11:43:47 PM EST

Re: Polls (none / 0)

Well -- Nader is very much alive right now -- unfortunately -- on the pages of tomorrow's Washington Post, blaming the Dems for preventing his access to state ballots and threatening Kerry with "a mini-Watergate type of scandal." Good timing too -- he must have really enjoyed their convention.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A60689-2004Sep3.html

by Anonymous Citizen on Sun Sep 05, 2004 at 02:09:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]

New Information on Electoral College Split (none / 0)

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/national/apelection_story.asp?category=1131&slug=Road%20to%20270
by Anonymous Citizen on Sun Sep 05, 2004 at 12:32:41 AM EST

Newsweek and Time Poll (none / 0)

If Bush and Kerry are indeed tied or Kerry slightly ahead in CA, which should be the case if Bush is ahead by 10, I will buy the Newsweek and Time argument. Otherwise I strongly believe that the two magazines were paid by Karl Rove and Swift Boat Vets for Truth to conduct this survey and distort the sample size.
by Anonymous Citizen on Sun Sep 05, 2004 at 12:35:31 AM EST

State by State Polls (none / 0)

Do not follow the national polls. Wait for the state by state polls.
by Anonymous Citizen on Sun Sep 05, 2004 at 12:42:53 AM EST

Newsweek poll: 42% of the households were military (5.00 / 0)

Nobody has mentioned what has been pointed out in a similar topic in www.dailykos.com: Of the 995 households sampled, 417 of them were military, 578 were non-military. I mean, 42% of the households were military households?

This is such obvious bias that the only conclusion is: the fix was in for this poll.

I'll bet the fix was in for the Time poll, too. How nice--each lends validity to the other and makes everyone think they're accurate.

by Anonymous Citizen on Sun Sep 05, 2004 at 02:52:23 AM EST

Re: Newsweek poll: 42% (none / 0)

I assume "military" for Newsweek means that the household includes at least one active-duty military, reserve, or veteran (rather than active-duty military alone). Does anyone know what percentage of US households actually fit that description?
by Anonymous Citizen on Sun Sep 05, 2004 at 03:12:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Newsweek poll: 42% (none / 0)

Does anyone know what percentage of US households actually fit that description? Offhand, I'd say ~12%
by Jerome Armstrong on Sun Sep 05, 2004 at 11:13:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 42% of the households were military (none / 0)

WOW! Unreal...
by Anonymous Citizen on Sun Sep 05, 2004 at 03:32:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Newsweek poll: 42% of the households were military (none / 0)

Good insight.

According to Military Demographics, The military represents 1.3% of U.S. households in 2002 (not the 42% Newsweek stacked the deck with in their biased poll).

http://www.mydd.com/story/2004/9/4/154842/1919#68

by Hanuman on Mon Sep 06, 2004 at 03:52:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: fix in on Newsweek poll (none / 0)

I absolutely believe the fix was in for this poll, especially after watching Gallup-CNN-USAToday perform precisely the same function for the bushies after the Dem convention. Their poll showing Kerry having lost ground to Bush came out at almost the same exact time in the cycle as this Newsweek poll. The script was written long ago on coverage of the conventions.

We have to begin focusing on the fact that the same is almost certainly true for the debates. How do we begin to counter that spin before it takes off?

What keeps me somewhat on an even keel is remembering how badly the press treated Gore -- and he still won!

by kainah on Mon Sep 06, 2004 at 07:51:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Polls (none / 0)

Whether the polls are right or wrong - whether they are skewed or not - Kerry should have been campaigning all along as if he were 20 points behind - instead he has been coasting.  
I'm in agreement with those who say he should be playing offense, instead of defense.  (Never mind trying to defend against the loser swift-boat vets) - Kerry should be hitting Bush with everthing in his arsenal - there's plenty of ammunition.  There's disagreement among us on whether that offense should be national defense or domestic - Kerry is limited as to him being able to hit Bush on national defense, because Kerry has already showed his policy would not be much different than Bush's - but there is plenty of domestic ammo to use against Bush.
One other thing - this term "mislead" has got to go - a "lie" is a "lie", and one who "lies" is a "liar".
by Anonymous Citizen on Sun Sep 05, 2004 at 08:40:01 AM EST

Re: Newsweek Poll (none / 0)

Also, keep in mind that Newsweek polled only 144 non-white voters (out of a total of 986). But that's only 14.6% of the total sample! The non-white population of the US (including hispanics) is around 30%, or perhaps slightly higher. And non-white voters, with the sole exception of Cuban-Americans, overwhelmingly vote Democrat in presidential elections. Honestly, I wouldn't lose a wink of sleep over this poll.
by Anonymous Citizen on Sun Sep 05, 2004 at 08:41:19 AM EST

Re: Newsweek Poll (none / 0)

But non-whites do vote at considerably lower rates than whites. They may still be undersampled in this survey, but not hugely.
by EvanstonDem on Sun Sep 05, 2004 at 03:53:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

polls (none / 0)

you are missing the point. it doesn`t matter if the polls are correct  or not it`s the perception that bush has an 11 point  lead that counts.
by EXBUSHVOTER on Sun Sep 05, 2004 at 09:01:45 AM EST

Rasmussen (none / 0)

Rasmussen Reports:

Bush's Lead Yesterday -- More than 4 percent
Bush's Lead Today -- 1.2

For today's poll 2/3 of respondents responded after Bush's supposedly transcendant speech.  

Bush's support is soft and his record sucks, it's still a race folks.

by Anonymous Citizen on Sun Sep 05, 2004 at 12:08:02 PM EST

Polls (none / 0)

Even if the polls skewered, I hope they serve as a wake-up call to Kerry.  
by Anonymous Citizen on Sun Sep 05, 2004 at 12:08:43 PM EST

Re: Polls (none / 0)

You advocate waking the dead. Kerry has been in the Senate for 19 years without waking.
by Anonymous Citizen on Sun Sep 05, 2004 at 02:01:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Warning: Dissenting Viewpoint (5.00 / 0)

I believe the race is essentially tied and that Kerry will ultimately win because a majority of voters are looking for an excuse to rid themselves of Bush. It will be similar to 1980 when Reagan pulled away after convincing voters during the debates that it was safe to vote Carter out.
by Anonymous Citizen on Sun Sep 05, 2004 at 02:05:22 PM EST

Re: Warning: Dissenting Viewpoint (none / 0)

Good point.

Kerry needs to convince America that it is safe to vote Bush out.

The debates are key.

by Geotpf on Sun Sep 05, 2004 at 09:33:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Newsweek Poll Horribly Weighted (none / 0)

what Bounce?

Bush 47.6%
Kerry 46.4%
Other 2.6%
Not Sure 3.4%
RasmussenReports

by Anonymous Citizen on Sun Sep 05, 2004 at 02:28:36 PM EST

WOW !! (none / 0)

 
 Posted on Sun, Sep. 05, 2004

Graham book: Inquiry into 9/11, Saudi ties blocked

By FRANK DAVIES

fdavies@herald.com

WASHINGTON - Two of the Sept. 11, 2001, hijackers had a support network in the United States that included agents of the Saudi government, and the Bush administration and FBI blocked a congressional investigation into that relationship, Sen. Bob Graham wrote in a book to be released Tuesday.

The discovery of the financial backing of the two hijackers ''would draw a direct line between the terrorists and the government of Saudi Arabia, and trigger an attempted coverup by the Bush administration,'' the Florida Democrat wrote.

And in Graham's book, Intelligence Matters, obtained by The Herald Saturday, he makes clear that some details of that financial support from Saudi Arabia were in the 27 pages of the congressional inquiry's final report that were blocked from release by the administration, despite the pleas of leaders of both parties on the House and Senate intelligence committees.

Graham also revealed that Gen. Tommy Franks told him on Feb. 19, 2002, just four months after the invasion of Afghanistan, that many important resources -- including the Predator drone aircraft crucial to the search for Osama bin Laden and al Qaeda leaders -- were being shifted to prepare for a war against Iraq.

Graham recalled this conversation at MacDill Air Force Base in Tampa with Franks, then head of Central Command, who was ``looking troubled'':

``Senator, we are not engaged in a war in Afghanistan.''

''Excuse me?'' I asked.

''Military and intelligence personnel are being redeployed to prepare for an action in Iraq,'' he continued.

Graham concluded: 'Gen. Franks' mission -- which, as a good soldier, he was loyally carrying out -- was being downgraded from a war to a manhunt.''

Graham, who was chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee from June 2001 through the buildup to the Iraq war, voted against the war resolution in October 2002 because he saw Iraq as a diversion that would hinder the fight against al Qaeda terrorism.

He oversaw the Sept. 11 investigation on Capitol Hill with Rep. Porter Goss, nominated last month to be the next CIA director. According to Graham, the FBI and the White House blocked efforts to investigate the extent of official Saudi connections to two hijackers.

Graham wrote that the staff of the congressional inquiry concluded that two Saudis in the San Diego area, Omar al-Bayoumi and Osama Bassan, who gave significant financial support to two hijackers, were working for the Saudi government.

Al-Bayoumi received a monthly allowance from a contractor for Saudi Civil Aviation that jumped from $465 to $3,700 in March 2000, after he helped Nawaf al-Hazmi and Khalid al-Mihdhdar -- two of the Sept. 11 hijackers -- find apartments and make contacts in San Diego, just before they began pilot training.

When the staff tried to conduct interviews in that investigation, and with an FBI informant, Abdussattar Shaikh, who also helped the eventual hijackers, they were blocked by the FBI and the administration, Graham wrote.

The administration and CIA also insisted that the details about the Saudi support network that benefited two hijackers be left out of the final congressional report, Graham complained.

Bush had concluded that ''a nation-state that had aided the terrorists should not be held publicly to account,'' Graham wrote. ``It was as if the president's loyalty lay more with Saudi Arabia than with America's safety.''

Saudi officials have vociferously denied any ties to the hijackers or al Qaeda plots to attack the United States.

Graham ran unsuccessfully for the Democratic presidential nomination and then decided not to seek reelection to the Senate this year. He has said he hopes his book will illuminate FBI and CIA failures in the war on terrorism and he also offers recommendations on ways to reform the intelligence community.

On Iraq, Graham said the administration and CIA consistently overplayed its estimates of Saddam Hussein's threat in its public statements and declassified reports, while its secret reports contained warnings that the intelligence on weapons of mass destruction was not conclusive.

In October 2002, Tenet told Graham that ''there were 550 sites where weapons of mass destruction were either produced or stored'' in Iraq.

''It was, in short, a vivid and terrifying case for war. The problem was it did not accurately represent the classified estimate we had received just days earlier,'' Graham wrote. ``It was two different messages, directed at two different audiences. I was outraged.''

In his book, Graham is especially critical of the FBI for its inability to track al Qaeda operatives in the United States and blasts the CIA for ``politicizing intelligence.''

He reserves his harshest criticism for Bush.

Graham found the president had ''an unforgivable level of intellectual -- and even common sense -- indifference'' toward analyzing the comparative threats posed by Iraq and al Qaeda and other terrorist groups.

When the weapons were not found, one year after the invasion of Iraq, Bush attended a black-tie dinner in Washington, Graham recalled. Bush gave a humorous speech with slides, showing him looking under White House furniture and joking, ``Nope, no WMDs there.''

Graham wrote: ``It was one of the most offensive things I have witnessed. Having recently attended the funeral of an American soldier killed in Iraq, who left behind a young wife and two preschool-age children, I found nothing funny about a deceitful justification for war.''

by Orsurgeon on Sun Sep 05, 2004 at 02:32:50 PM EST

Re: WOW !! (none / 0)

PLEASE DEAR GOD, who I love very much, let this make front page news like the CLarke book.  And please give John Kerry the strength of will to invoke his Darth Vader side and force choke the political career of George Bush the sequel.

Thank you god.  

by Anonymous Citizen on Sun Sep 05, 2004 at 04:04:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Polls (5.00 / 0)

From Reuters:

The polls for Time and Newsweek magazines were the first to show either candidate grabbing a distinctive edge since Kerry wrapped up the Democratic presidential nomination in March.

But pollsters, analysts and campaign aides on both sides predicted a battle down to the wire.

"It remains a very close and very competitive race," said pollster John Zogby, whose latest national survey during the convention showed Bush gaining 7 percentage points on Kerry to lead by two. "It's close nationwide and it's close in the key battleground states."

Zogby released his own set of 20 state-by-state polls on Sunday showing Kerry with narrow leads in 11 states, Bush ahead in eight and one state, Nevada, an exact dead heat.

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=topNews&storyID=6153658&pageNumber=1

by Anonymous Citizen on Sun Sep 05, 2004 at 05:05:28 PM EST

Re: Polls (none / 0)

What is wrong with Nevada? Bush wants to turn the state into a nuclear dump and half the voters still support him. Maybe they believe they can save on energy costs if they glow in the dark.
by Anonymous Citizen on Sun Sep 05, 2004 at 05:18:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

SOME ACTUAL POLL DATA (none / 0)

  This data is from the actual material posted by Newsweek. Without a doubt this poll is bias, and I beleive done so with intent as it ain't rocket science to know that the ratio in the overall population of Dems to Repu. is not 374/303.The other ratios in this sample are more absurd. On Sunday's A.M. shows I observed a lot of reservatation to talk about this poll and I do not recall any mention of the Time poll. Chris Wallace on Fox tried but no takers. The point many folks knew within hours  these polls were bogus, and making an issue of them was pointless  and likely harmful to Dems. The blowback will land on Bush; I think Kerry's push has begun. Those of you in areas with close races at any and all levels do work  more than you think you are able, it is important to say the least. In sum these polls,I believe, will prove a net plus for Kerry

     374  Republicans (plus or minus 6)
     303  Democrats (plus or minus 6)
     300  Independents (plus or minus 6)

     283  Southern White (plus or minus 7)
     559  Non-Southern White (plus or minus 5)
     144  Non-White (plus or minus 8)

     417  Military households (plus or minus 6)
     578  Non-military households (plus or minus

     310  Republican states (plus or minus 6)
     409  Swing states (plus or minus 6)
     289  Democratic states (plus or minus 7)

     541  Bush/Cheney supporters (plus or minus 5)
     403  Kerry/Edward supporters  (plus or minus

by Anonymous Citizen on Mon Sep 06, 2004 at 01:17:18 AM EST

Re: SOME ACTUAL POLL DATA: Military Demographics (none / 0)

Good job on catching the bias in the Newsweek poll.

FYI:

The military represents 1.3% of U.S. households and had 2.2% of U.S. babies in 2002  according to the Military Demographics web site.

http://www.militarycity.com/advertising/MTMilitaryDemo.pdf

by Hanuman on Mon Sep 06, 2004 at 03:44:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]

ALL OF THE STUFF (none / 0)

NEWSWEEK POLL: REPUBLICAN CONVENTION 2004

 Bush/Cheney Lead Kerry/Edwards 54 to 43 Percent; in a Three-Way Trial Heat,
                  Bush/Cheney Receive 13-Point Margin Bounce

 Bush Approval Rating Rises to 52 Percent; First Time Above 50 Since January;
      Majority (53%) Wants to See Him Re-Elected-Highest Since May 2003

  27 Percent of Registered Voters Think Bush/Cheney Campaign Is Behind Swift
                                   Boat Ads

    NEW YORK, Sept. 4 PRNewswire -- Immediately following the Republican
National Convention in New York, the latest Newsweek Poll shows that, in a
two-way presidential trial heat, the Bush/Cheney ticket would win over a
Kerry/Edwards ticket by 54 percent vs. 43 percent among registered voters.  In
a three-way trial heat, including Green Party Candidate Ralph Nader, the
Bush/Cheney ticket would still win 52 percent to 41 percent for Kerry/Edwards
and 3 percent for Nader/Camejo among registered voters.  That represents a
13-point margin bounce for Bush/Cheney since an August 5-10 poll conducted by
Princeton Survey Research Associates International for the Pew Research
Center.
    And even though more Americans (49%) say they are dissatisfied with the
way things are going in the U.S. at this time (43% are satisfied), President
George W. Bush's approval rating has gone up to 52 percent, a seven-point
increase since the last Newsweek Poll (July 29-30), and the first time it's
topped 50 percent since January. Also 53 percent of registered voters say the
would like to see President Bush re-elected to another term.  The last time a
majority of Americans wanted to see the president re-elected was May 2003.
    In comparing the two presidential candidates, more registered voters think
President Bush has strong leadership qualities than Kerry (65% vs. 47%), is
more honest and ethical (62% vs. 47%), says what he believes and not just what
people want to hear (66% vs. 42%), would trust him to make the right decisions
during an international crisis (57% vs. 44%), shares their values (54% vs.
42%), and is personally likeable (67% vs. 59%).  In addition, more registered
voters think President Bush would do a better job than Sen. Kerry on various
issues: terrorism and homeland security (60% vs. 32%), the situation in Iraq
(55% vs. 37%), foreign policy (54% vs. 38%), taxes (52% vs. 38%), economy (49%
vs. 43%), education (48% vs. 42%), and gay marriage (44% vs. 36%).  More
people say Sen. Kerry would do a better job than President Bush on healthcare,
including Medicare (45% vs. 43%) and the environment (50% vs. 36%).
    Two months before the election, more registered voters (28%) say terrorism
and homeland security is the most important issue in determining their vote.
Twenty-one percent say it's the economy, 13 percent say healthcare and only 11
percent say the situation in Iraq.  On that subject, a majority of registered
voters (55%) think that the U.S. did the right thing in talking military
action in Iraq, though 50 percent say the war has not made Americans safer
from terrorism (45% think it has).  And, among registered voters, 44 percent
think Saddam Hussein's regime was not directly involved in 9-11 (42% say it
was).
    Despite the four-day convention, a strong 60-percent majority of
registered voters say they saw none of (32%) or very little (28%) coverage of
the RNC on television last week.  Only 40 percent say they saw some of it
(24%) or a great deal (16%).  And only 36 percent say they now have a more
favorable opinion of the Republican Party, with 27 percent saying they have a
less favorable opinion.  Of Independents, 29 percent said they have a more
favorable opinion of the Republicans and 27 percent said less favorable.
Following the Democratic convention in July, 41 percent who said they had a
more favorable opinion of the Democrats.  Only 24 percent said they had a less
favorable opinion.  And of the 45 percent of registered voters who said they
watched all or part of the President's speech, 37 percent said they had a more
favorable opinion of him, while 18 percent said it was less favorable.
    As to the presidential candidates' military service, though 75 percent of
registered voters say what they've seen or heard about Bush's military service
will not have much effect on their vote, and 62 percent say the same about
Kerry's military service in Vietnam, 75 percent of registered voters have seen
or heard about the recent TV Ads sponsored by a veterans' group questioning
Kerry's military record.  And 21 percent say those ads are generally accurate.
Thirty-nine percent say they are misleading or distorted.  Only 25 percent are
not aware of those ads.  Twenty-seven percent of registered voters think the
Bush/Cheney campaign is behind the ads, while 38 percent think they were
produced independently.  (However, 26 percent of military households who have
seen or heard about John Kerry's military record say they are less likely to
vote for him).
    Looking ahead to the next presidential campaign, a majority of registered
voters (50%) said they would like to see former New York City Mayor Rudy
Giuliani run for president in 2008 (65% of Republicans), followed by Arizona
Sen. John McCain (48%, 47% of Republicans), and Arnold Schwarzenegger (22%,
30% of Republicans), if the Constitution were changed to allow foreign-born
U.S. citizens to run.
    This poll is part of the September 13 issue of Newsweek (on newsstands
Monday, September 6). For this Newsweek Poll, Princeton Survey Research
Associates International interviewed 1,008 adults aged 18 and older on Sept.
2-3, 2004.  The margin of error is plus or minus four percentage points.

    (Read Newsweek's news releases at http://www.Newsweek.com.  Click
"Pressroom" at the bottom of the page.)

     Newsweek Poll: Post-Republican Convention, Princeton Survey Research
                           Associates International

                            Final Topline Results
                                   (9/4/04)

     N = 1,008 Registered Voters, 18 and over
     Margin of error: plus or minus 4
     Interviewing dates: September 2-3, 2004

     SAMPLE SIZE/MARGIN OF ERROR FOR TOTAL ADULTS:
     1,188     Total adults (plus or minus 3)

     SAMPLE SIZE/MARGIN OF ERROR FOR REGISTERED VOTERS SUBGROUPS:
     1,008     Registered voters (plus or minus 4)

     505  Thursday interviews (plus or minus 5)
     503  Friday interviews  (plus or minus 5)

     374  Republicans (plus or minus 6)
     303  Democrats (plus or minus 6)
     300  Independents (plus or minus 6)

     476  Men (plus or minus 5)
     532  Women (plus or minus 5)

     112  18-29 (plus or minus 10)
     349  30-49 (plus or minus 6)
     516  50+ (plus or minus 5)

     283  Southern White (plus or minus 7)
     559  Non-Southern White (plus or minus 5)
     144  Non-White (plus or minus 8)

     417  Military households (plus or minus 6)
     578  Non-military households (plus or minus 5)

     310  Republican states (plus or minus 6)
     409  Swing states (plus or minus 6)
     289  Democratic states (plus or minus 7)

     541  Bush/Cheney supporters (plus or minus 5)
     403  Kerry/Edward supporters  (plus or minus 6)

     SAMPLE SIZE/MARGIN OF ERROR FOR SUBGROUPS OF REGISTERED VOTERS
     INTERVIEWED FRIDAY

     187  Republicans (plus or minus 8)
     139  Democrats (plus or minus 9)
     165  Independents (plus or minus 8)

     NOTE: An asterisk () indicates a value less than 1%.

     REGIONAL DEFINITIONS
     Republican states: AL, AK, CO, GA, ID, IN, KS, KY, LA, MS, MT, NE, NC,
     ND, OK, SC, SD, TX, UT, VA, WY
     Swing states:  AZ, AR, FL, IA, ME, MI, MN, MO, NV, NH, NM, OH, OR, PA,
     TN, WA, WV, WI
     Democratic states: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, MD, MA, NJ, NY, RI, VT

     Results for questions 1a/b and 2a/b include leaners.
     1a/b.     Suppose the election were being held TODAY and you had the
               following three choices for president and vice president...
               (INSERT CHOICES AND ROTATE) George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, the
               Republicans; John Kerry and John Edwards, the Democrats; and
               Ralph Nader and Peter Camejo, the Independent or third party
               candidates. Who would you vote for? [IF DO NOT SUPPORT
               BUSH/CHENEY, KERRY/EDWARDS, OR NADER/CAMEJO RESPONDENTS WERE
               ASKED] As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward...Bush and Cheney,
               the Republicans; Kerry and Edwards, the Democrats; or Nader and
               Camejo?

     BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS

    Three-Way Trial Heat
                          Total Bush  Total Kerry  Total Nader   Undec./
                           /Cheney     /Edwards     /Camejo      Other

    Current Total             52           41            3         4      =100

    Thursday interviews       49           43            3         5      =100
    Friday interviews         54           38            4         4      =100

    Republicans               94            4            1         1      =100
    Democrats                 14           82            1         3      =100
    Independents              45           40            9         6      =100

    Men                       54           39            4         3      =100
    Women                     50           43            2         5      =100

    18-29                     45           45            9         1      =100
    30-49                     56           37            3         4      =100
    50+                       50           44            1         5      =100

    Southern White            66           30            1         3      =100
    Non-Southern White        51           41            4         4      =100
    Non-White                 34           56            4         6      =100

    Military households       58           36            2         4      =100
    Non-military households   48           43            4         5      =100

    Republican states         56           37            2         5      =100
    Swing states              51           42            3         4      =100
    Democratic states         47           44            5         4      =100

    Trends
    (8/5-10/04)               45           47            2         6      =100
    (7/29-30/04)              42           49            3         6      =100
    (7/8-9/04)                44           47            3         6      =100
    (5/13-14/04)              42           43            5        10      =100
    (4/8-9/04)                42           46            4         8      =100
    (3/25-26/04)              45           43            5         7      =100
    (3/18-19/04)              45           43            5         7      =100

     Note:  August 5-10, 2004 trend from Pew Research Center.  July 29-30,
     2004 poll conducted during the week of the Democratic National Convention
     and should not be used to estimate Bush's post-convention bounce.  Trends
     before 7/8-9/04 based on slightly different question wording that did not
     include vice presidential candidates' names.

     1c.  Do you support (INSERT Q.1a CHOICE: Bush and Cheney/Kerry and
          Edwards/Nader and Camejo) STRONGLY or only moderately?

     BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS

    Candidate Preference/Strength of Support
    Total                8/5-10/04  7/29-30/04
7/8-9/04  5/13-14/04  4/8-9/04
           Bush/Cheney
            Voters
    39     Strong           32          30         31         24          28
    13     Not Strong       13          12         13         18          14

           Kerry/Edwards
            Voters
    25     Strong           28          31         25         22          21
    16     Not Strong       19          18         22         21          25

           Nader/Camejo
            Voters
     1     Strong            1           *          1          1           1
     2     Not Strong        1           3          2          4           2

     4     Undecided/Other   6           6          6         10           8
    100                    100         100        100        100         100

     Note: August 5-10, 2004 trend from Pew Research Center.  July 29-30, 2004
     poll conducted during the week of the Democratic National Convention and
     should not be used to estimate Bush's post-convention bounce.  Trends
     before 7/8-9/04 based on results that did not include vice presidential
     candidates.

    Strength of Support by
     Candidate Preference
                                       Bush/Cheney         Kerry/Edwards
                                        Supporters          Supporters
    Strength of Support
    Strong                                 74                   62
    Not Strong                             26                   38
                                          100                  100
    Number of Interviews                 (541)                (403)

     2a/b.     Suppose there were only two choices for president and vice
               president and you HAD TO CHOOSE between... (INSERT CHOICES AND
               ROTATE) George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, the Republicans, and
               John Kerry and John Edwards, the Democrats.  If the election
               were held TODAY, who would you vote for? [IF DO NOT SUPPORT
               BUSH/CHENEY OR KERRY/EDWARDS, RESPONDENTS WERE ASKED] As of
               TODAY, do you LEAN more toward...Bush and Cheney, the
               Republicans or Kerry and Edwards, the Democrats?

     BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS

    Two-Way Trial Heat
                           Total Bush     Total Kerry     Undecided/Other
                            /Cheney        /Edwards

    Current Total              54             43                 3        =100

    Thursday interviews        52             46                 2        =100
    Friday interviews          56             40                 4        =100

     3.   Next, please tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
          of the following people in politics.  If I mention someone you had
          never heard of before this interview, just tell me.  (First,) what
          about... (INSERT READ AND ROTATE ITEMS A & B FIRST; THEN READ AND
          ROTATE ITEMS C & D) (Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
          of him?)

     BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS

                        Favorable   Unfavorable   Never heard of   DK
    a. George W. Bush
    Current RVs            55           40                         5   =100
    Trends - RVs
    (7/29-30/04)           48           48              0           4   =100
    (7/8-9/04)             51           45              *           4   =100
    (5/13-14/04)           46           46              0           8   =100
    (4/8-9/04)             48           46              *           6   =100
    (3/25-26/04)           51           44              0           5   =100
    (3/18-19/04)           52           42              *           6   =100
    (2/19-20/04)           49           47              *           4   =100
    (2/24-25/00)           55           36              *           9   =100
    (1/17-19/00)           66           26              *           8   =100
    (10/21-24/99)          71           21              1           7   =100

    b. John Kerry
    Current RVs            45           46              *        9      =100
    Trends - RVs
    (7/29-30/04)           53           37              2        8      =100
    (7/8-9/04)             52           36              3        9      =100
    (5/13-14/04)           47           36              3       14      =100
    (4/8-9/04)             51           34              3       12      =100
    (3/25-26/04)           51           35              2       12      =100
    (3/18-19/04)           51           36              3       10      =100
    (2/19-20/04)           56           27              5       12      =100
    (1/29-30/04)           57           24              5       14      =100
    (1/22-23/04)           54           25              8       13      =100
    (12/11-12/03)          33           34             16       17      =100

    c. Dick Cheney
    Current RVs            50           40              1        9      =100
    Trend - RVs
    (7/29-30/04)           43           46              2        9      =100
    (7/8-9/04)             46           43              2        9      =100
    (2/19-20/04)           44           44              3        9      =100

    d. John Edwards
    Current RVs            46           33              5       16      =100
    Trends - RVs
    (7/29-30/04)           52           28              6       14      =100
    (7/8-9/04)             52           25              8       15      =100
    (2/19-20/04)           52           19             11       18      =100
    (1/29-30/04)           42           27             12       19      =100
    (1/22-23/04)           46           23             14       17      =100
    (12/11-12/03)          27           25             23       25      =100

     4.   Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in
          the United States at this time?

     BASED ON TOTAL ADULTS

                           Satisfied        Dissatisfied         DK
    Current Total              43                49               8      =100
    Trends
    (7/29-30/04)               36                58               6      =100
    (7/8-9/04)                 40                54               6      =100
    (5/13-14/04) Prisoner abuse
                  scandal      30                62               8      =100
    (4/8-9/04)                 36                59               5      =100
    (1/22-23/04)               43                52               5      =100
    (1/8-9/04)                 46                47               7      =100
    (12/18-19/03) Saddam's
                   capture     46                47               7      =100
    (10/9-10/03)               40                54               6      =100
    (4/03) Iraq War            50                41               9      =100
    (9/02)                     41                55               4      =100
    (7/02)                     46                46               8      =100
    (9/01) Terrorist attacks   57                34               9      =100
    (6/01)                     43                52               5      =100
    (3/01)                     47                45               8      =100
    (1/01)                     55                41               4      =100
    (6/00)                     47                45               8      =100
    (3/00)                     56                36               8      =100
    (8/99)                     56                39               5      =100
    (9/98)                     54                42               4      =100
    (1/97)                     38                58               4      =100
    (3/96)                     28                70               2      =100
    (6/95)                     25                73               2      =100
    (8/94)                     24                71               5      =100
    (6/92) Recession           14                84               2      =100
    (3/91) Gulf War Victory    66                31               3      =100
    (9/90)                     37                58               5      =100
    (9/88)                     56                40               4      =100
    (11/85)                    51                46               3      =100
    (12/81) Recession          27                67               6      =100
    (7/79)  Energy/Economic
             Crisis            12                84               4      =100

     Note:     Trends - 4/03, 9/02, 6/00-6/01 and 6/95-8/99 Pew Research
               Center; 7/79-6/92 Gallup.

     5.   Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling
          his job as president?

     BASED ON TOTAL ADULTS

                    Approve     Disapprove       DK
    Current Total      52           41            7        =100
    Trends
    (7/29-30/04)       45           49            6        =100
    (7/8-9/04)         48           46            6        =100
    (5/13-14/04)       42           52            6        =100
    (4/8-9/04)         49           45            6        =100
    (3/25-26/04)       49           45            6        =100
    (3/18-19/04)       48           44            8        =100
    (2/19-20/04)       48           44            8        =100
    (2/5-6/04)         48           45            7        =100
    (1/29-30/04)       49           44            7        =100
    (1/22-23/04)       50           44            6        =100
    (1/8-9/04)         54           41            5        =100
    (12/18-19/03)      54           38            8        =100
    (12/11-12/03)      51           42            7        =100
    (11/6-7/03)        52           40            8        =100
    (10/30-31/03)      51           39           10        =100
    (10/23-24/03)      51           40            9        =100
    (10/9-10/03)       51           42            7        =100
    (9/25-26/03)       52           40            8        =100
    (9/18-19/03)       51           42            7        =100
    (9/11-12/03)       52           39            9        =100
    (8/21-22/03)       53           36           11        =100
    (7/24-25/03)       57           34            9        =100
    (7/10-11/03)       55           37            8        =100
    (5/29-30/03)       61           28           11        =100
    (5/1-2/03)         65           26            9        =100
    (4/10-11/03)       71           23            6        =100
    (3/27-28/03)       68           26            6        =100
    (3/13-14/03)       53           37           10        =100
    (2/6-7/03)         61           31            8        =100
    (1/23-24/03)       55           38            7        =100
    (1/16-17/03)       56           33           11        =100
    (11/7-8/02)        60           30           10        =100
    (10/24-25/02)      61           29           10        =100
    (10/11-12/02)      61           29           10        =100
    (9/26-27/02)       65           27            8        =100
    (9/12-13/02)       70           23            7        =100
    (8/28-29/02)       61           30            9        =100
    (6/27-28/02)       70           19           11        =100
    (3/21-22/02)       74           16           10        =100
    (1/31-2/1/02)      83           12            5        =100
    (12/13-14/01)      81           11            8        =100
    (10/25-26/01)      85           10            5        =100
    (10/11-12/01)      88            8            4        =100
    (9/20-21/01)       86           10            4        =100
    (9/13-14/01)       82           11            7        =100
    (8/25-9/5/01)      51           34           15        =100
    (5/10-11/01)       50           31           19        =100
    (2/15-16/01)       56           21           23        =100

     Note: Full trendline from August 2002 to present; earlier trends
           selected. Bush approval figures for 8/25-9/5/01 from Pew Research
           Center.

     6.   In general, would you like to see George W. Bush re-elected to
          another term as president, or not?

     BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS

                      Yes           No           DK
    Current Total      53           43            4        =100

    Republican         93            5            2        =100
    Democrat           14           82            4        =100
    Independent        48           46            6        =100

    Trends
    (7/29-30/04)       43           53            4        =100
    (7/8-9/04)         43           52            5        =100
    (5/13-14/04)       41           51            8        =100
    (3/18-19/04)       46           50            4        =100
    (2/19-20/04)       43           52            5        =100
    (2/5-6/04)         45           50            5        =100
    (1/29-30/04)       45           49            6        =100
    (1/22-23/04)       44           52            4        =100
    (1/8-9/04)         48           46            6        =100
    (12/18-19/03)      46           46            8        =100
    (12/11-12/03)      45           50            5        =100
    (11/6-7/03)        44           50            6        =100
    (10/30-31/03)      45           46            9        =100
    (10/23-24/03)      46           47            7        =100
    (10/9-10/03)       44           50            6        =100
    (9/25-26/03)       46           47            7        =100
    (9/18-19/03)       44           50            6        =100
    (8/21-22/03)       44           49            7        =100
    (7/24-25/03)       49           43            8        =100
    (7/10-11/03)       47           46            7        =100
    (5/1-2/03)         51           38           11        =100
    (4/10-11/03)       52           38           10        =100
    (11/7-8/02)        49           42            9        =100

     7.   If you could vote separately for VICE PRESIDENT, would you be more
     likely to vote for ...  (ROTATE BY FORM) Dick Cheney, the Republican; or
     John Edwards, the Democrat?

     BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS

                           Cheney   Edwards   Neither/Other   DK
    Current Total            44        45           3          8        =100

    Trends
    (7/29-30/04)             36        55           3          6        =100
    (7/8-9/04)               41        52           2          5        =100

     Note: Neither/Other is a volunteered response category.

    Questions 8 and 9 were asked in random order; in each question series, the
order in which the items were read was rotated with item h in question 8 and
items h-i in question 9 always asked last.

     8.   Please tell me whether or not you think each of the following
     phrases describes GEORGE W. BUSH.  (First,) what about... (Does this
     describe Bush or not?)

     BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS

                                      Yes, describes  No, does not  DK
    a.Has strong leadership
      qualities
    Current Total                         65              33         2    =100
    Trends
    (7/29-30/04)                          60              38         2    =100
    (7/8-9/04)                            67              31         2    =100
    (1/22-23/04)                          65              33         2    =100
    (10/31-11/2/00)                       59              33         8    =100

    b.Is honest and ethical
    Current Total                         62              33         5    =100
    Trends
    (7/29-30/04)                          54              40         6    =100
    (7/8-9/04)                            54              40         6    =100
    (1/22-23/04)                          57              38         5    =100
    (10/31-11/2/00)                       58              31        11    =100

    c.Cares about people like you
    Current Total                         53              43         4    =100
    Trends
    (7/29-30/04)                          44              51         5    =100
    (7/8-9/04)                            49              46         5    =100
    (1/22-23/04)                          48              48         4    =100
    (10/31-11/2/00)                       51              41         8    =100

    d.Is personally likeable
    Current Total                         67              29         4    =100
    Trends
    (7/29-30/04)                          62              34         4    =100
    (7/8-9/04)                            69              29         4    =100
    (1/22-23/04)                          67              28         5    =100
    (10/31-11/2/00)                       70              23         7    =100

    e.Says what he believes, not
      just what people want to hear
    Current Total                         66              29         5    =100
    Trends
    (7/29-30/04)                          58              35         7    =100
    (7/8-9/04)                            62              32         6    =100
    (1/22-23/04)                          63              32         5    =100
    (10/31-11/2/00)                       52              37        11    =100

    f.Would trust him to make the
      right decisions during an
      international crisis
    Current Total                         57              40         3    =100
    Trends
    (7/29-30/04)                          48              49         3    =100
    (7/8-9/04)                            56              40         4    =100
    (1/22-23/04)                          56              41         3    =100

    g.Shares your values
    Current Total                         54              41         5    =100
    Trend
    (7/29-30/04)                          48              48         4    =100

    h.Is too conservative
    Current Total                         32              61         7    =100
    Trend
    (7/29-30/04)                          37              56         7    =100
    (7/8-9/04)                            34              60         6    =100

     9.   Please tell me whether or not you think each of the following
     phrases describes JOHN KERRY.  (First,) what about ... (Does this
     describe Kerry, or not?)

     BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS

                                      Yes, describes  No, does not  DK
    a.Has strong leadership qualities
    Current Total                           47           41         12   =100
    Trends
    (7/29-30/04)                            58           31         11   =100
    (7/8-9/04)                              55           27         18   =100
    (1/29-30/04)                            62           17         21   =100

    b.Is honest and ethical
    Current Total                           47           39         14   =100
    Trends
    (7/29-30/04)                            58           28         14   =100
    (7/8-9/04)                              53           29         18   =100
    (1/29-30/04)                            58           14         28   =100

    c.Cares about people like you
    Current Total

by Anonymous Citizen on Mon Sep 06, 2004 at 01:20:59 AM EST

Re: ALL OF THE STUFF (none / 0)

The one that jumps out is the finding that Bush has the edge in the category of "is honest and ethical". I believe Nixon also won this category in 1972. The American people, God Bless Them, do not excel when it comes to recognizing charlatans.
by Anonymous Citizen on Mon Sep 06, 2004 at 11:18:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]


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