MyDD :: Pre-Debate Polling Roundup

Pre-Debate Polling Roundup

by Chris Bowers, Wed Sep 29, 2004 at 02:37:50 PM EST

Short Version: Kerry's down, but not by much, and less than he was down by three weeks ago.

Three recent polls, The Economist, Rasmussen and Zogby, conduct sample of weighting of the sort I have repeatedly argued in favor of. I have been able to track down the Party ID internals of seven other polls, ABC, CBS, Fox, Gallup, Marist, Pew and Time. I have re-weighted these polls according to what I estimate will be 2004 Party ID turnout: 40%D, 37%R, 23%I/O (note: this is actually more favorable to Republicans than either 1996 or 2000 turnout). Here are the results:

      Bush  Kerry
ABC    50    44
Rasm   49    45
CBS    47    43
Pew    46    42
Zogby  47    44
Marist 47    45
Fox    45    43
Gallup 48    47
Econ   46    46
Time   45    47

Just like MoveOn.org's advertisement claimed yesterday, the polling consensus is that Kerry is down by a little under three. This is not nearly as good as being up by three, which was Kerry's fairly consistent position in July and the first half of August, but it is certainly not a disaster. After all, there are three debates and five weeks left in the election, and undecideds typically break for the challenger. Further, being down slightly less than three is also an improvement from the immediate post-convention polling consensus, which showed Bush up four or five.

Importantly, Fox, Marist and ABC, when re-weighted, don't change at all. CBS and Pew only change slightly (two points for each candidate). Time sees a three-point shift for each candidate, while Gallup remains the huge Party ID outlier, as its results shift six points for each candidate. This shows the folly of the claim that there has been a major Party ID shift in the country. Eight out of ten polling firms, including those with the largest sample sizes, have not registered significant shifts in Party ID. Only Time and Gallup repeatedly show such a shift.

On the President 2004 page, I show Kerry only down by one. This is because I am allocating undecideds 66-34 in favor of Kerry, as per my research on the subject.

The President 2004 page also shows how almost every single site that project Electoral College standings shows the race close, with Kerry needing only to flip Florida in order to win the Electoral College.

Tags: General 2008 (all tags)

Permalink :: 19 Comments :: Post a Comment

Right Where We Want Him (none / 0)

Bush is three to five points ahead, right where we want him. And, Kerry is slightly behind, right where he needs to be.

Recent elections, and not just presidential elections or general elections, show that in the last month, pressure builds on the front-runner to maintain his lead.

When a candidate is out front, particularly a Democratic candidate, the entire corporate press/media sets their sights on tearing him down. The big story is knocking off the leader with an errant sound-bite, a "scandal," or some other manufactured or exaggerated story.

This mentality fueled the anti-Gore press/media in 2000 after the debates. If the press/media had not done the overwhelming anti-Gore coverage in the week after the first debate, Gore would have run away with the election.

Remember Dean in the first week of December 2003. Ted Koppel signaled that the press/media was going into "attack the leader" mode with his "Is Dean Electable?" question. And Ted Koppel is not exactly Fox News.

If Kerry had continued his lead during August & September, the entire press/media, both personally and institutionally, would have set its coverage to take Kerry down.

That they do not do this to Bush is not proof that I am wrong about this thesis. A large part, at least half, of the corporate press/media are confirmed Bush supporters. They will never do anything that would hurt Bush's campaign. But the rest of them? They are up for grabs.

Kerry can start the "Comeback Kid" theme right after his poll numbers jump after this debate.

by James Earl on Wed Sep 29, 2004 at 02:52:19 PM EST

Re: Right Where We Want Him (none / 0)

I remember the media attacking Bush for drunk driving 4 or 5 days before the election in 2000. Don't blame the media for a poor debate on Gore's part. He made major mistakes like, in an effort to make Bush get angry, Gore stood inches from Bush while he was speaking. I am not sure where you get the 50% Bush supporters in the media, but this isn't a debate on media bias.

No offese to Chris, but his "Fuzzy Math" doesn't help anyone except to make people feel better. It also energizes Bush supporters to vote. It is in the best interest of the Gallup organization to give accurate projections. They have a history of accuracy to protect. It just doesn't make sense to me that Gallup would try to distort their findings.

I must admit I am a political junkie that follows the polls on a daily basis, but the polls really aren't that important, especially before the debates.

Good Luck

by Patrick Henry on Wed Sep 29, 2004 at 05:44:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Right Where We Want Him (none / 0)

Gallup has a 20 year history of getting the numbers wrong, sometimes dramatically wrong, when polling for presidential elections. When looking at Gallup's history, you should always diffrentiate between before 1984 and since 1984.

by PonyFan on Wed Sep 29, 2004 at 08:32:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Right Where We Want Him (none / 0)

Patrick,

You're showing Gallup's numbers only from the eve of the election (where Likely Voter tallies are more accurate), than from 5 weeks out.

Zogby came closer in 2000, and they have Bush up within only the margin of error, currently. Come back with Gallup numbers from the first week in October 2000, and try and make the same argument.

And, yes the polls are important. They tell us who is energized enough to take the pollster's phone call, and what White middle America is thinking.

Last, Bush apologists do not dig deep enough in polling data, determined to make sure the carpet matches the drapes. They're happy with CNN's Wolf Blitzer's solemn word, that the CNN/USA Today/Gallup numbers are legit.

by thatcoloredfella on Thu Sep 30, 2004 at 05:38:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Right Where We Want Him (none / 0)

Here is the polling data from the 2000 election http://www.gallup.com/poll/content/?ci=1216

Again I will agree with you polling really doesn't matter until closer to the election, but it is stupid to adjust thier numbers to make a canidate look better as Chris did. The poll that matters in on November 2.

cya

by Patrick Henry on Sat Oct 02, 2004 at 11:15:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Right Where We Want Him (none / 0)

As a Badnarik supporter, I'm interested in how you folks see him impacting the election. The GOP is concerned he may throw a few states to Kerry.

by Mark Fulwiler on Wed Sep 29, 2004 at 06:33:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I think he's a wash (none / 0)

He may even help Bush-his anti-war stance may cause a few peaceniks to vote for him.

by Geotpf on Thu Sep 30, 2004 at 04:35:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I agree with this (none / 0)

Kerry wants to be down by about three points right now-which is exactly where he is. So, this is exactly where he wants to be-he's more of a Comeback Kid than Clinton is. In fact, I still say he intentionally engineered his fall in the polls to set up a rope-a-dope-which is over now-he's now climbing out of the hole.

He better be at least tied within a week or so after all the debates are over, however.

by Geotpf on Thu Sep 30, 2004 at 04:41:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Turnout (none / 0)

Chris,

What are you basing the turnout on? Historical pasts or guessing or somewhere in between? How do you arrive at your numbers. Thanks.

by Michael on Wed Sep 29, 2004 at 02:52:52 PM EST

My guestimation (none / 0)

I start with historcial turnout numbers, and adjust them based on trends I feel will impact this election.

Next, I am guessing that Indepdendent turnout will lag slightly this cycle, so both Demcorats and Republicans will increase.

Finally, I assume that Republicans will gain slightly on Demcorats from 2000, based on Party ID survey trends since 2000.

In the end, I come up with 40-37-23.

by Chris Bowers on Wed Sep 29, 2004 at 03:40:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I think you are being generous to the Thugs (none / 0)

I think any gains by them in the past for years in party ID are more than wiped out by increased registration by our side this time around.

by Geotpf on Thu Sep 30, 2004 at 04:43:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Pre-Debate Polling Roundup (none / 0)

'Voter modeling' & 'likely voter methodology' are two terms I'm interested in learning more about, specifically their metrics: what they are and how they work.

When polls are released do they show the questions asked? Who signs off for or authorizes the questions to be asked? Is there review of the standard review of questions before they're sent to respondents? These investigative questions are important to ask because the answers determine in part how questions are asked in polls, what's asked when, and why the public sees what it sees.

"Do you favor John Kerry or George Bush?" is a first tier question with a binary choice, either Kerry or Bush. Questions like: "Do you favor John Kerry or George Bush [while the economy has lost jobs], [while Iraq is worse off than it was when President Bush declared mission accomplished].. supplement the core question.

Journalists have reported or framed supplemented questions as core questions and nothing else: "When voters were asked what they thought of the presidential candidates.." but voters were actually asked about jobs and Iraq this misleads the context and is a transparency issue in polling and reporting that must be fixed by initiating more community based media projects with local production and authoring solutions.

Nick

by nickdw on Wed Sep 29, 2004 at 02:54:32 PM EST

polls (none / 0)

What confuses me is that Kerry's numbers did not really increase with all the increased energy and strength he displayed last week

by gail on Wed Sep 29, 2004 at 03:05:52 PM EST

Re: IBD? (none / 0)

What about the IBD Christian Science Monitor poll which shows Kerry one point ahead? Is there some reason not to count that?

by herodotus on Wed Sep 29, 2004 at 03:16:15 PM EST

Re: IBD? (none / 0)

Internals. I can't find the Party ID internals for the latest IBD poll, so I don't include it. I am still looking though--I found them for the last two IBD polls.

I have the same problem with the latest AP--can't find the internals. The NBC internals structure Party ID in a way that makes it impossible to ever include that poll.

by Chris Bowers on Wed Sep 29, 2004 at 03:37:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

2000 polls (none / 0)

Im curious as to the "polling consensus" that emerged after the first 2000 debate..I remember being shocked after seing the usa today tracking poll shortly thereafter, that showed the chimp surging ahead..I thought Gore won that debate rather convincingly..I furthermore seem to rember bush being comfortably ahead in most polls..Does anyone know of a site where i can look at some numbers from 2000?

by tommy on Wed Sep 29, 2004 at 03:22:51 PM EST

Re: 2000 polls (none / 0)

Gallop 2000 Trends: http://www.gallup.com/poll/content/?ci=1216

I know its Gallop, but I can't seem to find good graphs from the other pollsters or even a history of thier results, but here are some more links:
NCPP
CNN Poll Resources

by Patrick Henry on Wed Sep 29, 2004 at 06:27:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Not such a bad thing (none / 0)

Gore was down in the polls every week save as few weeks around memorial day. At some points, even fairly close to the elections, polls had him down by double digits.

My personal feeling is that Kerry is down, probably by 4 points. That's less of a bad thing than it might appear. Republicans are very prone to hubris. If they can make themselves believe Bush is 10 points ahead, they will. If they do, they will be much less likely to vote. Their faithful tend to fall for their own hype. All we have to do is keep our own people optimistic and our turn-out high.

by SoulTim on Wed Sep 29, 2004 at 03:47:17 PM EST

Re: Pre-Debate Polling Roundup (none / 0)

There is also a Harris poll out today that has Kerry down 2.

http://www.harrisinteractive.com/harris_poll/index.asp?PID=499

by Terp on Wed Sep 29, 2004 at 05:00:09 PM EST

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