MyDD :: Polls in NY, WA, NV, KY, and updated House 2004 Outlook

Polls in NY, WA, NV, KY, and updated House 2004 Outlook

by Jerome Armstrong, Wed Sep 22, 2004 at 03:27:28 PM EST

I just updated the House 2004 Outlook. Take a look and tell me what you think. From what I can tell, the chances for gaining seats look very positive for the Democrats in the House; the only question is, how many can they take away? Dems have 6 seats as toss-ups, while Republicans have 18 they could lose, and maybe more.

There are a number of interesting late-breaking contests that I have added, particularly in Nebraska (1st & 2nd), Virginia (10th & 2nd) Kansas (2nd), and Iowa (2nd), where the Democratic candidates are coming out of the woodwork. Chuck Todd today started wondering about Bean (8th) and Renner (11th) in Illinois pulling off victories alongside a Democratic wave in the state. In CO (3rd) a takeaway looks assurred. And if anyone can point out a vulnerable Democrat incumbent in 2004, please do. Here's some favorable poll numbers on a few of those races (From NJ):

NY 27th, Cooper & Secrest (D)
Higgens(D)    48%
Naples(R)     43%
Undecided      9%

WA 8th, Lauer Research (D)
Ross(D)       45%
Reichert(R)   43%
Undecided     12%

NV 3rd, Garin Hart Yang (D)
Porter(R)     47%
Gallagher(D)  44%
Undecided      9%

KY 3rd, Courier-Journal Bluegrass
Northup(R)    47%
Miller(D)     40%
Dick(L)        2%
Undecided     12%

And here's a plug our favorite candidate, Ginny Schrader. We are at $1450, with just $550 left to reach the $2k goal.
Help Ginny out with a donation.

Tags: House 2006 (all tags)

Permalink :: 33 Comments :: Post a Comment

Texas 17th (none / 0)

This one could possibly be leaning Democratic. Edwards has been massacring Wohlgemuth on cutting CHIP, taking lots of kids off health care. Wohlgemuth has been getting lots of bad press. He's leading her big time in money. Wohlgemuth has started putting Bush/Cheney on her signs to try and ride that wave (Bush will win the district with minimum 60% of the vote). That's her best hope. TX 17th isn't that dissimilar from the Oklahoma senate race, with a moderate (though Edwards is less conservative than Carson) Dem running against a totally insane opponent in an area that Bush will take handily.

by demomatt on Wed Sep 22, 2004 at 05:07:48 PM EST

How about a map or graph? (none / 0)

At the risk of sounding lazy, it is hard for me to tally up all those different races and try to get some sort of sense as to what the Dem/Rep ratio might be in the House post November 2. I would love some kind of map or graphic like the one you have for electoral votes -- either one that just makes predictions based on your outlook, or one that also includes a way to "toggle" different races to see how they might affect the totals.

So in your spare time if you could work on that ... ;-)

by citygirl on Wed Sep 22, 2004 at 05:20:39 PM EST

Matheson in Utah (none / 0)

Jim Matheson barely won in 2002. He's facing the same opponent this year (Jim Swallow), but this time with an anti-gay amendment on the Utah ballot, and a Presidential and gubernatorial election which will drive GOP turnout very high. He isn't taking this race lightly, which some claim he did 2 years ago, but he may be in some trouble.

It's difficult for me to get excited about all these D polls, because they basically mean that the Republican is leading, or at the very worst tied, in independent polls.

Someone at OurCongress was worried about Brad Miller in NC-13. His opponent is well-funded and very strong.

by James on Wed Sep 22, 2004 at 06:13:28 PM EST

Re: Matheson in Utah (none / 0)

Good call. I hear the Republicans are pulling out all of the stops to take him out because they can't stand the thought of any Democrat in Congress from Utah. With Alexander switching parties, doesn't Matheson have the most Republican district of any Democratic incumbent?

by Colorado Luis on Wed Sep 22, 2004 at 10:13:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Matheson in Utah (none / 0)

No. Even before Tom DeLay's power grab, Charlie Stenholm held that distinction, sitting in a district that was 72% for Bush. It's probably around 74%-75% now that it's been reconfigured.

Matheson's district was 67% for Bush; this ranked below not only Stenholm's district but former Democrat Ralph Hall's (70%) and was tied with Chet Edwards's (67%.) After redistricting Edwards has probably passed Matheson, and maybe Sandlin (whose district was 64% for Bush.)

by Tom on Thu Sep 23, 2004 at 12:37:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]

What exactly did Chuck Todd say about Renner? (none / 0)

I guess there hasn't been any polling. Renner is running a strong campaign, along with Bean, but I'm surprised that Todd is now speculating that they may win. Maybe this will cause the IL Dems and the DCCC to toss them a few more dollars.

Have you heard anything about whether or not Teresa Daly is leading in MN-2, as someone here claimed?

Dave Thomas in CO seems to be running into some bad news.

by James on Wed Sep 22, 2004 at 06:18:02 PM EST

Re: What exactly did Chuck Todd say about Renner? (none / 0)

Most of the speculation surrounding Bean and Renner is not based on polls, but rather that Kerry's expected easy victory in Illinois and the impending Obama landslide will lead to abysmally low GOP turnout. That could be enough to push Bean and/or Renner over the top, and maybe even Christine Cegelis in IL-6 (thanks in part to Henry Hyde's reportedly poor health.)

by Tom on Thu Sep 23, 2004 at 12:40:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Bean vs. Crane in IL-8 (none / 0)

Everyone who should know in both parties seems to think that Crane is the most beatable Republican in IL. Both Obama and Dem Rep. Schakowsky are sending volunteer groups out to canvass to her, and the RNC has moved this race to their "most endangered" list.

by EvanstonDem on Tue Oct 05, 2004 at 12:59:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Dave Thomas and CD 7 (none / 0)

I think Dave Thomas is doing well. His numbers show he is a few points ahead of his opponent and that is probably why the DCCC has pulled their ads for now. I suspect the DCCC doesn't have the deep pockets of the RNC. Rothenburg previously rated his race as a lean GOP but now as a Toss Up. Polling shows Beauprez is in trouble and he is.

by Rususa1 on Wed Oct 06, 2004 at 11:18:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Tim Bishop (none / 0)

in Long Island. Sabato's crystal ball even has that as lean Republican. He got elected against an abysmal incumbent and now the is his first term reelection. He needs help.

by math geek on Wed Sep 22, 2004 at 11:30:30 PM EST

Dem incumbents I'm a little worried about... (none / 0)

Not SERIOUS worries here. Just worth watching.

AR-2 (Snyder): Worried mostly because his opponent has outraised him to date. Of course, Snyder is notorious for this, so perhaps we shouldn't be worried. But, he does have a serious opponent.

FL-2 (Boyd): Boyd at least has some strong competition. He's still favored in my book, but it's worth watching.

IN-9 (Hill): He has the same challenger as he did in 2002. He's survived tough races in the past, but with a conservative district, you just never know.

IA-3 (Boswell): Once again, same challenger as in '02. Republicans must really buy into Newt's "if you get above 40%, try again."

NY-1 (Bishop): See above.

NC-13 (Miller): I forget who it was, but somebody posted that they feared he might have a little trouble. His opponent has effectively taken the free trade issue off the table, from what I've heard.

ND-AL (Pomeroy): He always has close races, and you just never know when North Dakota decides it's had enough of an all-Dem Congressional delegation. (His opponent's been competitive in fundraising, too.)

Don't know if you agree with me on all these, but at the very least these are more competitive than some of the Republican-held seats you have listed, IMO.

by Tom on Thu Sep 23, 2004 at 12:56:07 AM EST

Doesn't Tim Bishop have a different opponent? (none / 0)

I thought his opponent this year was some guy named Manger. But yeah, he's still vulnerable.

So many people seem worried about Brad Miller -- how did this race stay under the radar for so long? Can't he tell people that her party supports free trade even if she doesn't? Is there anything he can do to stay in office?

Arkansas and North Dakota both have anti-gay amendments on the ballot, so that will probably drive up GOP turnout. Pomeroy's opponent is going around begging for money, saying people are destroying his yard signs, and other shameless tactics. He seems very strong. Although the state GOP in AR seem to be on the decline, Synder is very liberal for AR, and we should worry about him.

I also worry about Ed Case vs. the Asian and viciously anti-gay Mike Gabbard in HI, but polls have Case doing pretty well, for now.

How many seats do you guys think we'll lose? August and Septemebr have been very bad for Congressional races.

by James on Thu Sep 23, 2004 at 02:54:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Doesn't Tim Bishop have a different opponent? (none / 0)

When I said "see above," I was referring to the above post, not to anything above in my post.

Brad Miller isn't dead in the water. I've just heard that he could have a tougher race on his hands than was originally thought.

Pomeroy's opponent is Duane Sand, who ran a token campaign against Kent Conrad in 2000 but still got 38% of the vote. He's never held elective office, so he could very effectively run a campaign on being "non-political." More important than the anti-gay amendment, IMO, is the fact that Bush is on the ballot. Pomeroy has gotten 53% and 52% in his last two races.

The state GOP in Arkansas is NOT on the decline. (It's hard to be on the decline when you're outnumbered 27-8 in the state Senate and 70-30 in the state House, and your party does well in Presidential elections.) Hutchinson lost in 2002 and Huckabee came close to losing more because of their own blunders than because of the state GOP. Snyder has drawn a strong opponent in state Rep. Marvin Parks and, you're right, he's probably too liberal for Arkansas. And the indirect effect of term limits is that term-limited state legislators seem more likely to run for Congress.

As a pretty liberal estimate... I think we lose maybe two or three of the Texas Five (depending on if Frost can REALLY overcome his tough district) and a couple others... maybe Matheson, Pomeroy, Snyder. It's hard to tell at this point because most of the races have so little reliable polling.

by Tom on Thu Sep 23, 2004 at 09:58:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Doesn't Tim Bishop have a different opponent? (none / 0)

This might help, follow the money (from CQ):

Portman's PAC gave $5,000 apiece to seven Republicans challenging Democratic incumbents.

They are Brian Hamel, who is running against freshman Michael H. Michaud in Maine's 2nd District; Calder Clay in his rematch with freshman Rep. Jim Marshall of Georgia's 3rd; Mike Sodrel, rematched with three-term Democrat Baron P. Hill of Indiana's 9th; Goli Ameri, challenger to three-term Rep. David Wu of Oregon's 1st; Jim Zupancic, opposing four-termer Darlene Hooley of Oregon's 5th; Kevin Triplett, seeking to upset 11-term incumbent Rick Boucher in Virginia's 9th; and John Swallow, who has a rematch of his close 2002 race with Rep. Jim Matheson in Utah's 2nd.

The PAC also also cut checks to two candidates who are running for Democratic-held open seats -- Roy Ashburn in California's 20th, where seven-term Democrat Cal Dooley is retiring, and Charles Boustany in Louisiana's 7th, the seat left open by four-term Democrat Chris John for his Senate bid. Two recipients of Portman PAC largess are defending Republican-held open seats: Nancy Naples in New York's 27th District, left open by retiring six-term Rep. Jack Quinn, and Mike Fitzpatrick in Pennsylvania's 8th, where six-term GOP Rep. James C. Greenwood is not seeking re-election.

by Jerome Armstrong on Thu Sep 23, 2004 at 10:03:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Doesn't Tim Bishop have a different opponent? (none / 0)

And more (also from CQ), on RNC's expenditures:

Notable independent expenditures in support of Republican House candidates

Charles Boustany, Louisiana's 7th District: $28,841
Calder Clay, Georgia's 3rd District: $20,593
Nancy Naples, New York's 27th District: $20,000
Louis Gohmert, Texas' 1st District: $20,000
Rep. Max Burns, Georgia's 12th District: $20,000
Greg Walcher, Colorado's 3rd District: $20,000
Kris Kobach, Kansas' 3rd District: $19,500

by Jerome Armstrong on Thu Sep 23, 2004 at 10:04:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]

seats we'll lose (none / 0)

sad to say, but since we failed to challenge one new district in texas (now held by jim turner), and keeping what delay did down there in mind, i don't think we're going to have much a net gain this year.

we're going to lose five seats down here in texas, and keeping in mind we need a gain of 12 to take the majority, EVERYTHING will have to break our way (the bean race, the schrader race and other relative long-shots).

it would be nice if we could keep at least two texas democrats in office in spite of redistricting.

by fedupdem on Thu Sep 23, 2004 at 03:44:55 AM EST

it's about time! (none / 0)

It's about time that folks started paying attention to what's going on here in VA-10. We have an outstanding Democratic candidate who's going to give Rep. Wolf a run for his money. Check out www.socasforcongress.com for more info because we definitely have an opportunity for a pick-up.

by vivakatya on Thu Sep 23, 2004 at 09:19:26 AM EST

Re: Polls in NY, WA, NV, KY, and updated House 200 (none / 0)

Assuming the toss-up races split 50/50, it looks like a net gain of 6 for the Democrats, give or take a seat or two. Not enough to make Pelosi speaker, but it might make it a bit harder for the Rethugs to hold votes open and twist arms to get the results they want.

To get control, we'd have to hold the Texas Five and retake 11 of the 16 GOP-held toss-ups, as well as the likely pick-up in CO-3. Not likely, but there's an outside chance of it if Kerry ends up winning in a walk.

If you're always playing the fear card, it's a pretty good sign you're not playing with a full deck!

by Mathwiz on Thu Sep 23, 2004 at 02:51:53 PM EST

Re: Polls in NY, WA, NV, KY, and updated House 200 (none / 0)

Since that seems unlikely to happen, I think a better idea is to expand the playing field and score a couple of upsets over GOP incumbents. (Richard Romero? Nancy Boyda?)

I got an e-mail newsletter from Joanna Conti's campaign in CO-6 and they're talking upset. It seems Tom Tancredo is almost viewed as a pariah by many in the national GOP and with Kerry running exceptionally strong in Colorado, Tancredo may not get the Bush coattails he needs.

by Tom on Thu Sep 23, 2004 at 05:37:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Polls in NY, WA, NV, KY, and updated House 200 (none / 0)

I think Conti is a good bet. Been keeping an eye on the dkos 12 - so Stork is out huh? and Newberry just had a bunch of key people leave from his campaign. I can't believe it's almost October and we have just over a month before the big day. We really need to make sure we're throwing funds at places we actually have chances for success.

by Kris4Kerry on Fri Sep 24, 2004 at 03:29:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Polls in NY, WA, NV, KY, and updated House 200 (none / 0)

Stork is gone, and it's a shame. He really had a shot at winning that district for us.

Conti has outraised Tancredo for both of the past couple of cycles. My only concern is whether or not the district is too Republican for her to win, but I smell upset.

by Tom on Sat Sep 25, 2004 at 11:37:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Still very much in reach (none / 0)

I've steadfastly held on to the notion that THIS is the year in which we can pull off the demotion of DeLay and his cohorts to minority status. I know, I know, about all those safe seats out of reach, but especially with the polls still LOOKING so close, the Democratic turnout is liable to be phenomenal this year - and that will include people who've never voted or not voted in years. I will not be surprised if there aren't several shockers in our favor, where a 62-38 R winner in 2002 gets knocked off, and if I'm right about the turnout, it's not unreasonable to hope that fully 85-92% of the Toss-Ups go our way.

Here's what I wrote 4 months ago on the subject, and I wonder if others might agree.

If anybody knows of an election night get-together in Seattle or Kitsap County Washington among progressives especially interested in the race for the House, please let me know about it.

Walker

by slaaty on Fri Oct 08, 2004 at 07:10:52 PM EST

Re: Still very much in reach (none / 0)

If I'm right though, 2006 is gonna be a really tough slog, cuz there's no Pres race to bring our people out.

by slaaty on Fri Oct 08, 2004 at 07:13:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Tisa Blakes CAN WIN in 5th District of Louisiana (none / 0)

Those who were royally pissed and thoroughly enraged when Rodney Alexander switched parties 15 minutes before qualifying ended can now turn that rage to love by contributing to Zelma "Tisa" Blakes (http://www.blakesforcongress.com). Blakes was dismissed early on as a housewife and political newcomer. Well, now that she's climbing the polls, those people are eating their words. This terrific candidate is gathering huge support throughout the District, and she's been featured in the media ranging as widely as Louisiana Public Broadcasting to Jet magazine to the New York Times. Read about her success on the blakescampaign diary on http://www.dailykos.com. And PLEASE open your hearts and your wallets to send this dynamic young black woman to Washington.

by peggopgoz1 on Sat Oct 09, 2004 at 01:54:21 PM EST

OH-3 Update (none / 0)

Things are heating up here in OH-3. With over nearly 50,000 new voter registrations in OH-3's Montgomery County alone, most of them directly attributable to Dem efforts, the numbers tell a strong story. Remember, this district started with a 47.4 DPI, and that averages in Gore abandoning Ohio on Oct 4 in 2002, and the short, underfunded race for this seat last time. We're in the field polling now, for our baseline before TV starts next week.

For those who don't remember, I am also running against the only member of the US House to actually have worked for an outsourcing company. His former employer, Rajesh Soin, is still one of his biggest supporters. And no wonder, my opponent has a voting record of 100% support for outsourcing and offshore corporate headquarters.

The incumbent is a first-termer, with a dismal record. He votes 98% of the time with Delay, but occasionally moves to the right of the Republican majority (voting against additional funding to combat AIDS in Africa.) He's a sponsor of the Marriage Amendment, as well.

The RNCC has him on their "most vulnerable list" and his helping him with money.

Here in Ohio, Kerry is running TV spots focusing on outsourcing. It's a white-hot issue here, where we are still losing jobs. If I can let voters know this guy's history, no amount of RNCC money can overcome the reality of his record.

Thanks to all of you who spread the word!

Come to Ohio! Work in this critical swing district! (3 of my counties have changed Congressional party hands 4 times in 12 years... prompting one Harvard study to call them part of a "whiplash" district.)

Your support... with funds, volunteer hours, and encouragement... make all the difference. Visit us often at www.jane04.com.

Thank you.

Jane Mitakides Candidate for Congress

by jane04 on Sun Oct 10, 2004 at 06:59:08 PM EST

PA-6 in play: Lois Murphy poised to take it back (none / 0)

Recent polling shows a 16 point lead for Dems in this district, on a generic Congressional ballot asking whether voters would support a Dem in Congress or a Republican. Jim Gerlach is a first-termer with less than 20 percent name recognition. And enthusiasm on the ground here for Murphy is palpable.

If you have any cash at all to support a key race that can take back a seat for progressives, this is the one. Donate at www.loismurphy.org.

by Anandi in PA on Thu Oct 14, 2004 at 10:16:34 AM EST

Bean in IL - 8 (none / 0)

It's time to move this one into the tossup category. Bean's latest internal polling show Crane 46, Bean 44. She is still building name recognition and she's been endorsed by the conservative Chicago Tribune, which should wake up a lot of their Republican and independent readers.

by EvanstonDem on Sat Oct 16, 2004 at 01:47:05 PM EST

No One Knows Anything (none / 0)

What I want to know is, what will the ramifications be when on November 3rd, all the assumptions and preciousness of the DCCC and other advocacy groups will have been proved wrong? Will they still continue to ignore good races that deserved attention? Will those who faced the odds alone give the finger to the establishment and say, "Howz about THAT!" I sure as hell hope so. It's like the goddam mafia out there.

by Lemonsquare on Wed Oct 20, 2004 at 03:09:23 AM EST

CA-26 (none / 0)

The Cynthia Matthews vs. David Dreier race has heated up considerably. Even a lot of Republicans are angry at Dreier and planning on crossing over to vote for Matthews. (see www.firedreier.com)

Cynthia Matthews is a lesbian who is very "out", unlike Dreier who has consistently supported anti-gay legislation. The Advocate had an article on the race: http://advocate.com/html/stories/924/924_matthews.asp

Best thing is, she has a very good shot at winning!

Contribute to help rid Congress of David Dreier here: http://www.matthews4congress.com/help.html

Or here:
http://actblue.com/list/bluedog3#matthews

Or here:
http://actblue.com/list/bluedog2#matthews

by ACSR on Wed Oct 20, 2004 at 04:57:17 PM EST

Barend vs. Kuhl--NYS 29 (It's over) (none / 0)

Hate to say it, but this one is over. The revelation today that promising candidate Samara Barend's "campaign manager" is the one who rec'd the pilfered papers from her State Senator opponent(this has become a notorious issue, covered from "The Times" to "Newsday") is a final nail. Republican Randy Kuhl will win, 2-1. The only remote chance the Democrat has, I believe, would be to publicly--very publicly--dismiss her "Campaign Manager," publicly apologize to the Kuhl family, reiterate nonetheless that we run for office we do set ourselves open to scrutiny, andc pledge--and request--that the final 10 days be devoted to THE REAL issues affecting the Southern Tier and Monroe County. Still, I think you can write this one off. A shame...such a promising young candidate. Next time: Mark Assini, the admittedly conservative Republican fellow who lost the primary to Mr. Kuhl!

by Concerned Upstate NYer on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 12:30:10 AM EST

Trouble in Missouri 5th District (none / 0)

Karen McCarthy's district is in big trouble. Missouri's 5th District has long been a Dem stronghold, including the core of Kansas City, plus Independence and most of Jackson County - Harry Truman territory. While redistricting and suburban growth has added many Republicans to the district, it still the Dems to lose.

The Dem candidate is Rev. Emmanuel Cleaver, a popular former mayor of KC and revered leader of the black community. However, his Republican opponent is within striking distance.

Jeanne Patterson is the wife Cerner CEO Neal Patterson (Cerner is a big healthcare IT company based in KC). So far she has pumped $3 million of her own money into the campaign. A barrage of negative attack ads has made here very competitive in very Democratic district.

Coverage of the race is here...

http://blogkc.com/archives/category/politics/mo-5th-district/

by erogers on Mon Oct 25, 2004 at 01:12:42 PM EST

The "other" Meyer (none / 0)

There's a House race in California where the challenger has outspent a sitting four-term incumbent - Richard Meyer versus Mary Bono. He's spent over a quarter million dollars on his campaign. He's talked with 20,000 people personally and has sent over 150,000 newspapers out to his district. He has campaign signs, radio ads in Spanish, and TV ads all over the District. More importantly, Meyer has focused a lot of time and effort in the largest city in the district (Moreno Valley), where Bono had a district office and pulled it out of there. Meyer's taken full advantage of that.

This has flown under the radar, on purpose, but things might be closer than expected. It's a good year for Democrats in California and this race just might shock some people.

by MeyerIn45th on Thu Oct 28, 2004 at 03:27:06 PM EST

Every race on one web page (none / 0)

It may not be the best design, but because I couldn't find anything comparable, I cobbled together this tracking table which lists every 'race' in the country. The prognostication column is largely taken from ActBlue, but includes some more optimistic assessments from this site. Included are the percentage received by the incumbent party in 2002. Of course those are pretty meaningless in Texas.

Enjoy - and comment about any races at all.

by slaaty on Sat Oct 30, 2004 at 03:57:30 PM EST

You are not logged in.

In order to post a comment, you must be logged in. If you have a member account, please log in to comment.

If not, you can make an account right here. It's quick and free.