Rasmussen poll swings for Kerry in FL & PA

by Jerome Armstrong, Sun Sep 19, 2004 at 09:11:19 AM EST

The latest by Rasmussen shows Kerry with the upswing in Florida and Pennsylvania. In Rasmussen's 7-day tracking poll, against Bush, Kerry jumped from down 50-46 and 49-44 in FL & PA on Friday, to even at 48-48 and 46-46 on Saturday. That's swing of 4% in FL and 5% in PA, in a 7-day tracking poll, represents a huge one-day shift for Kerry.

In other states, Kerry leads 50-44 in Michigan; and Bush leads 56-39 in North Carolina and 48-45 in Ohio. The choice of Edwards doesn't look like it has coattails much in NC, though among independents, where Kerry leads in all polls, Edwards probably is helping among that group.

globecanvas has an entry here with a graphic illustration of exactly what MOE=3.1% means:

Bush's national 4% lead over Kerry in Rasmussen will likely drop quite a bit in the 3-day tracking results by Monday; and Kerry will likely take the lead in Florida and Pennsylvania.




Tags: General 2008 (all tags)

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Edwards (none / 0)

For the last week, I thought that there had been an outcry for more visability of Edwards - but I still haven't seen him on TV.  It is understandable if Kerry is tired - why doesn't he turn over some of the heavy duty to Edwards?
The guy is a winner - The spot at the convention after Edward's speech when he brought out his family (while the band played Stevie Wonder's "Sir Duke") was one of elation.
Kerry got his biggest boost in the polls when he chose Edwards as VP.
by Dorothy Ligon on Sun Sep 19, 2004 at 09:32:24 AM EST

Re: Edwards (none / 0)

Anyone out there starting to get a sinking feeling that John Edwards is pulling Joe Lieberman? Senator Edwards seems to want to stay above the fray and promote his own long term political viability at the expense of the Kerry/Edwards ticket. This is not a four way primary race like Iowa where two candidates can derive benefits watching two other candidates go negative.

This election calls for both vice-presidential candidates to serve as attack dogs; Dick Cheney certainly has assumed that role while, at the same time, gaining on Edwards in their own head-to-head preference polls. Edwards is failing to perform obvious duties as a candidate in this election and the blame lies with him, not John Kerry.  

by CMike on Sun Sep 19, 2004 at 11:52:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Edwards (none / 0)

There was an interesting article I read somewhere yesterday (NYT?) suggesting that the normal P/VP campaign role has been reversed for Kerry/Edwards:  Kerry serves the redder meat in solid Dem-leaning areas, while Edwards projects a more moderate appeal in swing areas ("areas" at the county and district level).  Edwards appearances tend to be in Cental Ohio, rural Wisconsin, etc.  Kerry is in Portland, Cleveland, Philadelphia.

As such Edwards' role is less to bring states like NC or SC over to the blue column, but instead to narrow the Kerry disadvantage in red areas of swing states.

by globecanvas on Sun Sep 19, 2004 at 12:08:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Edwards (none / 0)

Well, you can't ignore that Kerry is kicking ass over Bush among the Independents, and that is part of Edwards strategy.  So, I think Edwards is doing just fine, and that it's Kerry that needs to up the Democratic enthusiasm. I bet when they get back to barnstorming together, during the last week, that the energy of Kerry kicks it up a notch.
by Jerome Armstrong on Sun Sep 19, 2004 at 12:11:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Edwards (none / 0)

Well, from what I hear he's traveling around the swing stakes, making well-received speeches to packed venues.  Can he help it if the SCLM chooses not to televise them nationally?  Try C-SPAN, they might have some of his events.
Later,
Alex
Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama for President! Beat McCain!
by Alex on Sun Sep 19, 2004 at 04:05:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Exactly (none / 0)

Edwards is out there; he's just not on TV (except for local media where he's at).

If Edwards doesn't become Vice President, his political future is basically over.  He's not running for re-election in the senate (and would have a hard time even if he was).  I'd say it's the exact opposite of what was stated-he is risking it all on this run.

by Geotpf on Sun Sep 19, 2004 at 04:45:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rasmussen poll swings for Kerry in FL & PA (none / 0)

If you look at the leaners, the news is even better.  We then lead in PA by 3% and in FL by 1`%, and are down only 1% in OH! And you're right, Bush's huge national polling day 3 days ago is about to drop out of Rasmussen's 3-day average.
The next big news is the next batch of ARG polls, and the Zogby interactive due next week.  
Things are moving our way.
by DaveG on Sun Sep 19, 2004 at 09:36:33 AM EST

Re: Rasmussen poll swings for Kerry in FL & PA (none / 0)

Florida, I just thought of something. The huge bump for Kerry could have been due to the news on Friday that Nader will be on the ballot again in Florida. And given that the republicans did some stupid partisan moves, probably thinking that the Florida Supreme Court wouldn't put him on, made it look like a Republican move for Nader. That's gotta piss off Dems in Florida.
by Jerome Armstrong on Sun Sep 19, 2004 at 09:48:16 AM EST

2 requests for Jerome & Chris (none / 0)

Hi guys ... sorry about the public request, I'd rather email this, but I can't find your email addresses anywhere.
  1.  That's my graph -- globecanvas, not monster.
  2.  I don't mind hosting an image for my own diary entry, but if it's gonna be on the front page, would you mind hosting it at mydd?  (The graph image you embedded is currently hosted at panix by me.)
Thanks for the great work guys.
by globecanvas on Sun Sep 19, 2004 at 09:59:20 AM EST

also, fine to delete the request comment (none / 0)

once you've read it, seeing as how it's not relevant to the content.  
by globecanvas on Sun Sep 19, 2004 at 10:00:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 2 requests for Jerome & Chris (none / 0)

OK, will do, sorry about that one.
by Jerome Armstrong on Sun Sep 19, 2004 at 10:07:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 2 requests for Jerome & Chris (none / 0)

ah, I must have been thinking "monster" move, lol.
by Jerome Armstrong on Sun Sep 19, 2004 at 10:12:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rasmussen poll swings for Kerry in FL & PA (none / 0)

Can't post a graph, but this thing is really winging all over the place ... 1-day Rasmussen N=1000 results:

        Bush    Kerry
9/18    47.0    47.7
9/17    50.6    41.7
9/16    45.8    48.9
9/15    51.8    43.8
9/14    50.0    42.9
9/13    46.1    47.4
9/12    45.8    48.9
9/11    49.4    43.2
9/10    46.4    47.1
9/9    49.1    45.3
9/8    47.0    45.9
9/7    47.3    47.4
9/6    48.2    47.1
9/5    49.1    45.0
9/4    44.6    49.8

by globecanvas on Sun Sep 19, 2004 at 12:10:38 PM EST

Re: Rasmussen poll swings for Kerry in FL & PA (none / 0)

Back down to a 1.7% 3-day lead for Bush.
by Jerome Armstrong on Sun Sep 19, 2004 at 12:14:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Rosh Hashanah (none / 0)

Throw out 9/15's numbers-Jews didn't answer the phone that day, and they are vote Dem over Rep 4:1.  Same goes with the nationwide Rasmussen tracking poll-today's numbers show a much closer race, now that the 9/15 numbers have dropped out of the mix.

by Geotpf on Sun Sep 19, 2004 at 04:47:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rasmussen poll swings for Kerry in FL & PA (none / 0)

I seem to recall that people here (I don't remember who) were suggesting that this "volatility" might reflect a change in the way the polls are taken, and that the reality may be that people feel more compelled to choose (fewer "undecided"), and therefore they are choosing less firmly.  So maybe a true reading would be something like 40/40/20 (B/K/U).  Obviously, I don't know anything about who is winning, but maybe undecideds are really closer to 20% than 5%?
by paul orwin on Sun Sep 19, 2004 at 04:17:59 PM EST

Again...we have to stop talking about these polls (none / 0)

like they actually measure the real thing

From everything I've heard from people working (not volunteers) on the ground in NC, is that poll is way off. NC is close and will remain close...it will come down to Triangle and Charlotte turnout...

Basically, at this point, we should maybe (maybe!!) look at polls to find out what people care about...asking them to decide now who they will vote for, tell a stranger (some people still view it as personal), and then use this to predict an entire state or country...is absurd at this point

by PHDinNYC4Kerry on Sun Sep 19, 2004 at 04:31:33 PM EST

Edwards (none / 0)

Edwards gave an excellent speech in Reno early last week.  Received local coverage but nothin at the national level. I wonder if the major news outlets have anyone assigned to cover him?  Seems unlikely.  Elizabeth Edwards was in Reno the week before and gave a great talk exhibiting intelligence and warmth.  No appearances yet by Kerry yet in northern Nevada but maybe his time is better spent in Ohio et al.

Edwards seems out there slugging away not being covered by the corporate media.  He's very effective.  I think they are afraid of his impact.  This may work in his favor in the debates as his style and message will be fresh.

On the other hand, given the mentality of this undecided electorate, a repetitive, simplistic message seems most effective and Kerry/Edwards has yet to master and control the public debate.

by ranee on Sun Sep 19, 2004 at 06:14:18 PM EST


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