Key State Legislatures

Post-census redistricting battles are still seven years away, but in order to cement what by then better be a Democratic majority in the House of Representatives they are at least worth a glance right now. Eight republican controlled states hold the key:
Congressional Delegations
	Current      Possible
Arizona     2	       5
Colorado    2	       4
Florida     7	      15
Michigan    6	       9
Ohio	   6	      11
Penn.	   7	      12
Texas	  12*	      17
Virginia    3	       6
Total	  45	      79
*Although the current Texas congressional delegation was elected under an old-Democratic produced map, the new map could cause a shift of up to five seats in the congressional delegation.

Better maps in these eight states could result in a shift of thirty-four seats, enough to cement a congressional majority won during our current decade throughout the entire next decade. While we certainly can win a significant amount of them back without better maps, all of them would become easier if we drew the lines. Here are the compositions of these eights assemblies / legislatures, along with the party that controls the Governorship (in 2000, Governors in all eight states were Republicans):

Republican Advantage 
	 House	  Senate   Governor
Arizona   39-20-1    17-13	     D
Colorado  37-28      18-17	     R
Florida   81-39      26-14	     R
Michigan  63-46      22-16	     D
Ohio	 62-36	   22-11      R
Penn.	112-94	   29-21      D
Texas	 88-61	   19-12      R   
Virginia  61-37-2    24-16	     D
I am not certain what houses in each state control the Congressional map, so maybe readers can fill me in on that one. Still, no matter what the laws are, at least forcing a compromise map is essential in every single state. In most cases, this would require taking back the governorship and/or Senate, all of which are possible. (Actually, now that I think about it, do Governors have any say in the maps at all?)

I do not like gerrymandering, but until more states pass redistricting laws such as Iowa has done, we need to use every tool available to us. The current Republican majority is supported in large measure by the series of maps Republican controlled states drew following the 2000 census. If we can do the same, the next generation will grow up under progressive governance. After all, the House Democratic caucus is one of the few areas of the national party solidly controlled by our progressive wing.



Display:


Texas (none / 0)

Texas' Congressional delegation is 16-16 (it was 17-15 before Ralph "I was a DINO before Zell Miller could spell DINO" Hall switched sides). Even under the 2001 map, Charlie Stenholm and Chet Edwards had narrow wins. Both of those districts would have gone GOP if either incumbent had stepped down. An 18-14 GOP split would not have been unrealistic or particularly unreasonable under that map.

That said, there's no way that a 21-11 GOP split (if all five endangered incumbents lose) is fair or representative. Getting to 17 Dems requires holding all five redistricted seats (Lloyd Doggett is safe) plus a pickup. Much as I want to see that, I'm lowering my expectations and hoping to be surprised.

The Texas House is really 88-62. Ron Wilson was ousted in the March primaries and resigned his seat last week, so for now it's technically 88-61. However, Wilson was a key ally of Speaker Tom Craddick and the most disliked Democrat in the state, so his early departure is a good thing. His replacement, Alma Allen, faces no GOP challenger, so that seat will stay Democratic.

by kuff on Mon Aug 09, 2004 at 01:30:44 PM EST

Re: Texas (none / 0)

The count in Texas is even worse  
than you report.

In the March Democratic primary,
the real Democrat incumbent, Ciro
Rodriguez, was upset by Cuellar,
a challenger who had held a high
appointment in the administration
of Gov. George W. Bush.

Despite an amply funded campaign
(ask Nadir where to get support for
a race against a real Democrat),
Bush's friend Cuellar lost the election.

Then Cuellar "won" the re-count when
a few hundred "uncounted" ballots
materialized in his home county.
But allegations of widespread fraud
were dismissed by Texas judges.
(Take it to the Supreme Court ! ! !
Or, on second thought, maybe not.)

It wouldn't take a "Louisiana Purchase"
to get Cuellar to caucus with Republicans
in January if the House is narrowly split.

In fact, if Bush wins, I'll be surprised if
Cuellar finishes his term as a Democrat.

The next election -- 2006 -- will probably
see the then-incumbent Cuellar (R)
challenged by former Cong. Rodriguez (D).

Until then -- we wuz robbed.

by Woody on Mon Aug 09, 2004 at 05:12:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

State house & senate (none / 0)

Among those states you've listed (AZ, CO, FL, MI, OH, PN, TX, VI), during the 2000 redistricting, I don't recall any of them being anything other than Republican trifectas, except for a Dem Senate (by 1 vote, iirc) in Colorado (and you can see the beneficial effect that had).

All these states have different rules, so this isn't a given. But I think you are right, with at least a Dem governor in 4 of those states currently, if that remains the case in 2010, redistricting would likely advance a Dem majority.

by Jerome Armstrong on Mon Aug 09, 2004 at 01:43:12 PM EST

Re: Key State Legislatures (none / 0)

(Actually, now that I think about it, do Governors have any say in the maps at all?)

NCEC, funded in part by the DCCC, has the state by state redistricting process.

by Jerome Armstrong on Mon Aug 09, 2004 at 01:45:23 PM EST

Re: Key State Legislatures (none / 0)

Governors can usually veto maps, which is why Massachusetts and California had somewhat fairly drawn maps in the 1990s.
by Anonymous Citizen on Mon Aug 09, 2004 at 05:23:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Arizona has an Independent Redistricting (none / 0)

Commission that draws all maps. It was modeled after Iowa's Independent Redistricting but as is usual in Arizona was corrupted by Republican influence. The five member panel has two Dems two Repubs and an "Independent" who used to be a Repub and votes with them on how the lines are drawn. Democrats and Hispanics won a law suit to have the lines redrawn and have more competitive districts but an appeals court issued a stay so the IRC didnt have to redraw the lines (Legislative not Congressional) before this election. New lines might be in play in 2006 and the IRC may be eliminated by 2010 as it is. It has not served any useful purpose.
by Anonymous Citizen on Mon Aug 09, 2004 at 03:21:19 PM EST

Michigan (none / 0)

In Michigan, the state Senate draws the map.
by Anonymous Citizen on Mon Aug 09, 2004 at 03:56:26 PM EST

Re: Michigan (none / 0)

See, so it's places like that, that the national Dems should get involved.
by Jerome Armstrong on Mon Aug 09, 2004 at 04:02:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

NCEC site (none / 0)

The NCEC site has out-of-date information. Redistricting from the 2000 census is not included, for example, and subsequently the congressional maps are wrong. Also, commentary on which party controls the state houses or governorships wrt the redistricting process is also stale.
by Anonymous Citizen on Mon Aug 09, 2004 at 04:33:21 PM EST

Re: NCEC site (none / 0)

Right, but I doubt the state process that it describes is incorrect.
by Jerome Armstrong on Mon Aug 09, 2004 at 07:13:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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