In the last week, six polls have come out that measure Bush's favorables and unfavorables. For Bush, the news was not good:

	 Fav Unfav Margin
Marist:    51  47   (+4)
ABC:	  47  45   (+2)
CBS:	  40  43   (-3)
Gallup:    51  47   (+4)
Newsweek:  48  48  (even)
Zogby:	  52  47   (+5)

That comes to a central and simple mean of 46.2 unfavorable. On average, Bush is two points in the black. If another 3-4% of the country decides they do not like Bush, he is probably finished. Compare these numbers to Kerry's:

	Fav Unfav Margin
Marist:   56   38   (+18)
ABC:	 51   32   (+19)
CBS:	 39   33    (+6)
Gallup:   56   37   (+19)
Newsweek: 53   37   (+16)
Zogby:	 53   36   (+17)

That comes to a central mean of 36.2 unfavorable, and a simple mean of 35.5. On average, Kerry is 16 points in the black--14 ahead of Bush. Add this to the way undecideds rate Bush's job performance and the direction of the country, and it doesn't take a genius to figure that the Incumbent Rule (also here) will be in full force during this campaign. One poll can be considered an outlier. However, all six of these polls have remarkably similar results. Kerry is clearly viewed more favorably than Bush.

Two days ago I assumed that Bush changed the tone of his ad campaign because after $75M on negative ads alone (and around $25M on positive ads), Bush was still getting crushed in the unfavorables department. Kerry seemingly had withstood the barrage, and it was time to change a strategy that was not working. However, the primary reason behind the change may be that the campaign realizes how close Bush is to "doomed" territory (3-4 points away). If he doesn't improve his unfavorables, the campaign might be over in September.

This is all the more reason to contact your local media outlet about the firefighter story today on the Bush "blog."