MyDD :: Nader's Death Spiral Continues

Nader's Death Spiral Continues

by Chris Bowers, Mon Aug 30, 2004 at 05:52:59 PM EST

Now that Nader is off the PA ballot, I recalculated the percentage of people who can and cannot vote for him. Considering the success of legal efforts either to have Nader removed from ballot or have his ballot petitions rejected, and the abject failure of legal challenges to have Nader placed on the ballot, Nader's ballot status looks bleak indeed. Unless he has actually been certified on a state ballot and no legal challenges remain, his status should be considered TBD. If his petition has been rejected, then he should be considered off the ballot.

		     Off     On    TBD
% of US pop over 18    48.25  5.83  45.92
% of 2000 Nader Vote   36.44  5.90  57.66
Electoral Votes        239	    37	262

Nader has been verified on the ballot in six states where there no longer remain legal hurdles for him to clear: AR, DE, IA, MT, NJ and SD. Nader is off the ballot in 14 states: AZ, CA, GA, ID, IN, IL, MD, MI, MO, OK, PA, NC, SC and TX. (source)

Quite a lot of territory remains to be determined, but so far Greens and Democrats have joined forces to rout Nader off the ballot. This is just one wing of a huge Democratic effort this year--an effort that seems to be dwarfing what took place in 2000--and I for one am enjoying watching it succeed. The state with the final ballot deadline is Minnesota, on 9/14. Much more will be known by then.

Incidentally, Badnarik will be on every single state ballot, with the possible exception of Oklahoma.

Tags: 3rd Parties (all tags)

Permalink :: 8 Comments :: Post a Comment

And in 2008? (5.00 / 1)

Nader won't go away soon, and even when he does, there will always be another Nader. Democrats have expended resources keeping him from being a spoiler this year; I'd rather not see those resources lost in the future.

Hopefully, Democratic legislatures, especially those in states where Nader made the ballot, like Maine, will keep this effort in mind next session and adopt voting systems - like Approval - where even if Nader makes the ballot, he won't be a spoiler.

Of course, you'd think that given 2000, they'd have done that at some point in the last four years.

by Drew on Mon Aug 30, 2004 at 06:52:05 PM EST

Don't worry about it (none / 0)

Honestly, at this rate it won't matter. He's hemorrhaging allies and turning into a self parody. The reason he's failing isn't this interference, it's that nobody wants to support him and that he's organizationally incompetent. He's going to tank this time out, and if he's still able to run in 4 years, when he's 70, he's likely to be weak. Others won't find his an encouraging example.

by Anonymous Citizen on Mon Aug 30, 2004 at 11:00:38 PM EST

nader not a fac tor (none / 0)

expept for IA, are ny of these even a factor?

by Anonymous Citizen on Mon Aug 30, 2004 at 11:39:54 PM EST

Re: nader not a fac tor (none / 0)

Arkansas has become a marginal swing state, but not a crucial one. If Kerry is close enough in Arkansas that Nader is a factor, he'll already be at 270+.

However, Race2004.net keeps an up-to-date list of Nader's status at the bottom of their front page, and they have him still active in swing states Florida, Ohio, Tennessee (probably a more pro-Kerry state than AR), Nevada, Iowa, Maine, New Hampshire, and Colorado, as well as long-shots South Carolina, West Virginia. In many of those he still has legal challenges left or has not had to submit signatures yet.

Nader can still be a factor. Based on the last 3 weeks polls, the real swing states right now have to be FL, OH, NV, CO, MO, and TN. Nader is still fighting in all of them except MO.

by Silent E on Tue Aug 31, 2004 at 09:35:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: nader not a factor (none / 0)

Your link is messed up. Try this: http://www.race2004.net

If you're always playing the fear card, it's a pretty good sign you're not playing with a full deck!

by Mathwiz on Tue Aug 31, 2004 at 03:05:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Nader is cooked (none / 0)

He is burning through his money at a record pace to fund these legal challenges. Even if he manages to hold on to the states he is certified on, and add a few more, he has little money to campaign on. And I believe after the Repug Convention Kerry will start to pull away, leaving Nader less and less in a position to spoil the election. Nader, being no longer worth funding by the Republicans, will fall further and further behind and finally suspend campaigning by 9/30.

Nader is 70 this year. He won't be back except as a crank-and with even dimmer (if that's possible) prospects in 08.

by Anonymous Citizen on Tue Aug 31, 2004 at 01:15:25 PM EST

Nader is 70 this year. He won't be back except as a crank-and with even dimmer (if that's possible) prospects in 08.

by Anonymous Citizen on Tue Aug 31, 2004 at 01:15:38 PM EST

And in four years (none / 0)

If Kerry wins, the grass-roots work of Dean will be working busily on several issues of political reform, and the other groups will be working to support Kerry's re-election and their own agendas. And the Greens will be busy building their party. What can Nader say then that's relevant?

by CarolDuhart on Tue Aug 31, 2004 at 01:47:26 PM EST

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