North Carolina, as I noted in a previous post, is one techy-blog state. I asked Matthew Gross & Guy Cecil, from the Erskine Bowles campaign, about their use of the Internet with the campaign. They responded that they are looking at it in two ways, besides the usual broadcast of message platform; first, by being one of many vehicles that a tight race uses to target those scarce voters that haven't yet decided (the ones you have to find whereever-ther-are); and second, by involving supporters over the blog, and integrating field efforts, such as those on their upcoming college-tour, via their campaign website, ala DFA, where Matt and I worked for Dean. Matt mentioned Castor's campaign as one of the Senate campaigns that he thought was using the Internet effectively this cycle, and there are other Democratic campaigns doing it.

Mostly, it's agreed, the Republicans are waging a 1990's-2002 Internet strategy across the Senate campaigns, Burr included. Ed Cone (see Ed's writeup from the CC here), who was also on the conference call asked about voter registration over the Internet and mentioned that not a single Republican Senate candidate had a blog. Not that a blog alone changes everything, but it does take an integral step toward online involvement by the candidate and campaign.

Speaking polls, internal Bowles polls are about the same as the publicly known ones, and the voter's focus is on the trade issues. Bowles leads by 7-9%, but underneath the head-to-head, the gap is closing. Republicans are gathering around Burr. 15-20% of the voters are undecided, they don't have much knowledge about Burr, his name ID is low still, particularly among this group of undecided voters, which probably has more conservative and Republican votes for Burr than it does to Bowles.

High-water mark of 44% in 2002, polled at most, 42%. In 2004, 47-48% polling against Burr, the same as was Edwards. The favorable vs unfavorable ratings:

Favorable ratings:

		    Fav/Unfav
Bowles		    48%/ 34%
Burr		    44 / 37

In terms of money, Burr started by infusing his campaign with a $1.7M drop of his cash. And though Bowles has raised more, Bowles also went up on TV earlier, so, cash on had is the advantage of Burr, particularly with the NRSC about to flood upwards to $5M into the contest.

In 2002, Bowles lost 44-55 to Dole. In that campaign the high-water poll mark for Bowles was 42% against Dole; and so far, in 2004, the Bowles high-water poll mark is 48% against Burr, about the same mark that Edwards held against Burr, before dropping out. I asked about their lessons from '02, Guy replied, first, that having a real field operation would make a difference. Their being no primary, Bowles is able to get a bigger jumpstart, and the NC Dem party can coordinate their activities earlier; second, the late primary made the pivot for the general all the tougher for Bowles; and third, the candidate that Bowles is running against is very different--Burr is no Liddy Dole.

So, where is this going? Bowles right now is ahead, but Burrs has his name ID ads on the air. That'll likely continue through Labor Day, after that, the gloves are coming off. The NRSC probably already has the ads in the can that will be attacking Bowles. Just like Bush vs Kerry, there is not way that Burr can win with this being a positive-focused race, and by the middle of Sept, the GOP-led negative onslaught will begin. I've been assured that Bowles will be fighting back. With Edwards on the ballot with Kerry, NC is much more a part of the national election, and the Bowles vs Burr contest will likely turn pretty close with the Presidential race in North Carolina.