Ruy Teixeira has definitely won me over when it comes to determining the most accurate most important trial heat models. For me, it is all about the two-way, registered voter trial heats:

ABC
940 RV, 7/30-8/1, MoE 3 (7/22-25 results)
Kerry 52 (48)
Bush  45 (49)

ARG
776 RV, 7/30-8/1, MoE 3.5 (7/1-7/3 results)
Kerry 49 (49)
Bush  46 (45)

CBS
991 RV, 7/30-8/1, MoE 3 (7/11-7/15 results)
Kerry 49 (49)
Bush  43 (44)

CNN
1,366 RV, 7/30-8/1, MoE 3 (7/19-7/21 results)
Kerry 48 (49)
Bush  48 (45)

Newsweek
1,010 RV, 7/29-7/30, MoE 3 (7/8-7/9 results)
Kerry 52 (51)
Bush  44 (45)

With the exception of ABC news, it would appear that so far there has been no real bounce. But hey, so what? Kerry's still in a pretty damn good position, especially when you consider all of the discussion here over the weekend about how undecideds break in elections with incumbents. Kerry's lowest score is 49, and Bush's highest is 47. Numbers like these on Election Day would almost certainly spell Bush's doom. While I would like to see Kerry up by another three or four points, I'm still pretty happy when I look at these numbers.