MyDD :: Economist Poll: Kerry up 7, Bush App. @ 39%

Economist Poll: Kerry up 7, Bush App. @ 39%

by Jonathan Singer, Thu Aug 19, 2004 at 07:37:23 PM EST

This week's Economist/You Gov poll has just come out and it contains a lot of good news for John Kerry. The poll was conducted August 16-18, with 1799 respondents ("Registered to vote": 1549, "Will definitely vote": 1417), and the MoE is +/- 2%.

Suppose the election for President were being held TODAY. Who would you vote for? George W. Bush, the Republican; John F Kerry, the Democrat; Ralph Nader, an independent candidate, or someone else?

Total; Def to vote (Last week)
George Bush 41% (43); 42% (45)
John Kerry 48% (48); 51% (49)
Ralph Nader 2% (1); 1% (1)
Someone else 2% 1%
Would not vote 1% 0%
Don't know 6% 4%

As of now, what do you think you are most likely to end up doing on November 2? (not allowing 'don't know')

(Total, Def to vote)
George W Bush 43% 44%
John F Kerry 51% 53%
Ralph Nader 2% 1%
Someone else 3% 2%
Not vote at all 2% 0%

In general, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States at this time?

(Total, Def to vote)
Satisfied 35% 38%
Dissatisfied 61% 60%
Don't know 4% 2%

Do you approve or disapprove of the way President George W. Bush is handling his job as president?

(Total, Def to vote)
Approve 39% 41%
Disapprove 55% 56%
Don't know 6% 3%

Overall, it looks like there has been a nice post-convention bounce for John Kerry and the Democrats as a whole. I think this really confirms most other polling showing similar results.

One of the most interesting things that comes out of this poll is that while Kerry's numbers have remained the same or slightly nudged up, Bush's are significantly down from last week. For instance, notice his overall approval rating at 39%!!!!!

I believe this drop for Bush comes from a number of issues, not the least of which the horrible ads coming from his supporters attacking John Kerry's war record. Most Americans will tolerate negative ads, but they abhore what they see as mean-spirited ads. As a result, it looks like this vicious attack as has backfired horribly for the campaign.

Additionally, I think another great part of this poll is that Kerry is actually doing better with "Likely" voters than "Registered" voters, which is rarely the case for a Democrat. I guess the only thing I can say is that "things are turning a corner" in this campaign!

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by Jonathan Singer on Thu Aug 19, 2004 at 07:38:00 PM EST

Attention whore! (none / 0)

(g)

by clawed on Thu Aug 26, 2004 at 10:33:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Wow... (none / 0)

...never seen Kerry ahead in Likely Voters over Registered Voters in the same poll before. This is good news indeed. Looks like the massive amounts of GOTV on our side is working.

by Geotpf on Thu Aug 19, 2004 at 07:46:11 PM EST

Re: Economist Poll: Kerry up 7, Bush App. @ 39% (none / 0)

This is poll-bouncing time, that's for sure, and it's only going to get more intense.

by Jerome Armstrong on Thu Aug 19, 2004 at 09:13:13 PM EST

Re: Economist Poll: Kerry up 7, Bush App. @ 39% (none / 0)

btw, in the EV count, MO flipped back to Bush, based on the latest SUSA polling. What I don't get is how National Journal can report on openly partisan poll outfits, and the writeoff SUSA and Rasmussen, simply because it's automated. As anyone who has followed their results, SUSA is just as accurate as any other polling outfit.

by Jerome Armstrong on Thu Aug 19, 2004 at 09:15:11 PM EST

Then again... (none / 0)

I'm questioning SUSA's California Poll that puts Bush well within the margin of error. Although SUSA has been great in the past, I think their methodology must be a little off in this instance.

Blogging here @ MyDD.com. Twittering @jonathanhsinger.

by Jonathan Singer on Thu Aug 19, 2004 at 11:37:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

AUG 18-25 polls will be interesting (none / 0)

Kerry likely is down from the numbers in this poll due to the SBL sewage being pumped relentlessly into every home in america by bug media...acting in their designated campaign role.

But Kerry has hit back effectively and the S.B.Liars'lies have self-destructed. "Bush is on the defensive" the news anchors are announcing.

Kerry may come out of this stronger and Bush weaker heading into the convention. What does Kerry have up his sleeve for tomorrow? He should be on the offensive every day poisoning the well for all the BS they will spew next week. Keep Bushco busy doing damage control and on the defensive going into NYC.

by Anonymous Citizen on Wed Aug 25, 2004 at 11:18:42 PM EST

Aug. 25 out (none / 0)

Kerry is now up 48-44 in the YouGov poll. The slime has clearly had an effect. It will probably hold for another week with the RNC. But after that it should bounce back the other way. Remember, the fundamentals in the race favor Kerry. That means many people on the fringes are winnable, even if they were duped by SVT for a bit. This isn't core GOP support. It's Independent support that doesn't like Bush but isn't sold on Kerry. To those voters I would send John Edwards.

by Anonymous Citizen on Thu Aug 26, 2004 at 01:34:17 AM EST

Economist leans toward job disapproval (none / 0)

Although the Economist.com/YouGov poll appears to be pretty close to the all-poll average on the Bush vs. Kerry election, it looks like it leans heavily on job approval/disapproval. I wouldn't get too excited about their big spread.

Here's the summary, taken from here.

by Anonymous Citizen on Thu Aug 26, 2004 at 02:10:25 AM EST

approve/disapprove 'don't knows' double (none / 0)

Maybe an anomaly, but doubling from 3% to 6% isn't a good sign for GWB. He doesn't have much to get them back into the fold except fear mongering.

by lutton on Thu Aug 26, 2004 at 06:36:39 AM EST

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