(Cross posted from Swing State Project).

The number of Gore states that appear vulnerable to Bush pickups in 2004 is rapidly shrinking. Here is a state-by-state rundown of Kerry's strengths in key Gore states:

• Michigan. The last two Survey USA polls out of Michigan showed double-digit leads for Kerry (52-41and 51-41 three-way). Three consecutive Zogby polls in the state have shown Kerry up by at least 7.5 in three way matchups in the state. However, the coup de grace is the latest EPIC/MRA poll where Bush is down seven in the trial heat at only 42, reaches an astonishing 52% unfavorable rating, (-6 favorable ratio to Kerry's +10), and registers only 34% right track. I was worried about Michigan for a while, but I am not anymore. The national shift among Muslim-Americans from majority Bush supporters to an almost perfectly solid anti-Bush voting block (3% approval rating among Muslims nationwide) is probably the main cause for this, since Michigan has the largest Muslim population of any state in the country.

• New Jersey. A few wags, including Safire and Scheinder, have crowed lately about polls supposedly showing New Jersey to be a toss-up. However, I would simply direct them to the latest Q-poll from the state (Kerry up 52-38, 22 ahead of Bush in favorable ratio), Rasmussen (Kerry up 51-38) Star-Ledger / Eagleton-Rutgers (Kerry up 52-32 and 39 ahead of Bush in favorable ratio) and, best of all, up 52-40 with Bush at 49% unfavorables in the latest out of New Jersey from pro-Republican pollster Strategic Vision. Just like in 2000, New Jersey is deep blue. The FDU poll showing otherwise is either an outlier, poorly done, or both.

• New Mexico. New Mexico was the second closest state in 2000, and has consistently been a toss-up for two decades now. However, a number of events have transpired to help Kerry this time around. First, in 2004 ex-felons will be allowed to vote for the first time in decades. Second, Nader is not on the ballot, but Libertarian candidate Badnarik is. Further, Badnarik is running hard in the state, including anti-Bush TV and radio ads. Third, the popular and powerful Bill Richardson is now Governor. Fourth, New Mexico has the highest percentage of Latinos of any state in the nation, and since 2000 Latinos have constituted the vast majority of population growth to the point where they are now the largest group in the state. As kos recently pointed out, Bush is losing ground among Latinos this year. There has not been much polling out of New Mexico this year, but what little has dribbled out has been good for Kerry. In early July, ARG showed Kerry up 51-43, and Zogby has shown Kerry ahead in three way matchups with Nader instead of Badnarik. While the two previous Zogby polls showed Kerry with large leads of 8 and 10 points respectively, the latest only shows Kerry up by 2. While this single poll raises cause for concern, at the very least this state is now lean-Dem instead of a toss-up. I will be keeping an eye on future polling to see if the Zogby numbers are confirmed.

• Oregon. I have previously written about Kerry's consistent strong showing in Oregon. The latest Zogby poll showed Kerry's lead dropping to only 4 points (every other poll for months had shown Kerry up eight or more), but Zogby still includes Nader, who is not on the ballot in Oregon. When Kerry's lead dropped, Nader's total went up. Either way, Kerry has been at 50% or higher in every non-partisan poll out of Oregon since early May. When the challenger is at 50% or higher, the well-known incumbent wins less than 2% of the time.

• Pennsylvania. Like Oregon, I have previously written about Kerry's consistent strength in Pennsylvania. Kerry's lead in the state has become so large and been confirmed from so many sources, that in three separate interviews at the convention I saw Ed Rendell asked about it. Since the time I wrote that article, Survey USA has shown Kerry with a 53-41 lead over Bush, the LA Times found Kerry up 48-38 in a three-way matchup, Zogby shows Kerry's three-way trial heat lead increasing to 8 points, and even pro-GOP Strategic Vision has shown Kerry up 51-43 with Bush at a -1 favorable ratio and Kerry at +12. Nader will have a close call to make the PA ballot. Kerry is clearly up big here, and the internals make it appear as though his lead will only continue to increase. These numbers certainly make me feel proud.

• Washington. All seven non-partisan polls out of Washington since early June have shown Kerry up by at least 7.4 points. Every single non-partisan poll since Dean dropped out has never shown Bush closer than 4, or higher than 45 in trial heats. History shows that when a well-known incumbent is always losing and never above 45, that incumbent loses 100% of the time. Washington is solid blue.

Among Gore states, this leaves only Iowa, Maine's 2nd CD, Minnesota and Wisconsin vulnerable to Bush pickups. Of course, that is not to say that Kerry looks bad in these states:

• In Iowa, only Zogby has had Bush over 46 since Kerry became the presumptive nominee, and right now Zogby only has Bush at 46.1.

• Maine's 2nd CD No info. Pollsters never seem to bother to notice the way Maine dishes out its Electoral Votes.

• Minnesota is a reversal of Iowa, as Zogby has shown consistent Kerry strength, but with the exception of the June Rasmussen poll, all others polls since March have shown a close race. Then again, no poll from Minnesota has shown Bush above the 45-point incumbent death line except Strategic Vision, which had Kerry at +16 favorable ratio and Bush at -2.

• Wisconsin is unquestionably Bush's best chance for a pickup this time around. This was one of Kerry's poorest primary states, Nader will be on the ballot, and three separate polling organizations since June have shown Bush leading here. Still, Bush has reached 48 or higher only once in Wisconsin, in the consistently pro-GOP Badger poll from late April. While Bush is in the game here, Kerry is still in the stronger position.

So, even in these states where Kerry does not seem to be in an overwhelming position of power, he still looks good. In fact, of the literally hundreds of state polls taken since Super Tuesday, Bush has hit 50 in a Gore state only twice: the Badger poll I just linked where he had 50, and the May 24 Iowa Zogby poll, where Bush was at 50.1. Kerry is extremely well positioned to hold the entire Gore battleground. His position is so strong that he should be able to spend a significant majority of resources working on the 10 electoral votes from Bush states that he needs to win. As Charlie Cook has written, Bush needs to shift the fundamentals of this race to have a chance.