1. Why is it that because NM (and other states) have relaxed their felon-voting laws that suddenly it will produce a lot of Democratic votes? While it makes sense that given that most felons are blue-collar and probably predisposed to voting Democratic, I can't imagine there are ALOT of votes out there. Also I can't imagine any candidate making a concerted effort to attract felons to the polls. What a way to scare off the masses if a story like that broke.
2. 2000 was close but it should not have been. I don't expect NM to be close in 2004 - Kerry should win comfortably. It seems to be a common thread that Bush has done worse in states around the country, especially those that he lost in 2000. It has been a belief of mine for some time that Pres. Bush will have a harder time winning the popular vote than the electoral vote.
3. As for Badnarik specifically, since Nader will not be on the ballot in NM this year, Badnarik will likely receive almost 1% bounce from that, simply by being the next visible anti-establishment candidate. Badnarik seems to be more organized this year than previous Libertarian candidate so we'll see. There is a good chance that Badnarik may do better than Nader in aggregate vote totals across the country. Most of the people who have voted for Nader in 2000 have lined up behind Kerry or Bush this time. Plus Nader has simply flamed out as a candidate. Much like Buchanan did four years ago after having decent showings as a Republican in 1992 & 1996.

"Twenty-three percent (23%) of Republicans and 25% of Democrats say there are circumstances under which they would consider voting for Badnarik. After learning that Badnarik says he would stop the War in Iraq and the Drug War, just 13% of Republicans say there is still a possibility they would vote for the Libertarian. With that same information, 28% of Democrats would consider a vote for Badnarik and 43% of unaffiliated voters would do the same."

Other than the fact he is running anti-Bush ads, this isn't particularily good news.  The only major "Nader" on the Republican side is Peroutka, of the Constitutional Party.

It looks like Mike Badnarik is also going to campaign in New Hampshire pretty hard.  It seems like a good fit, seeing that New Hampshire is the free state (http://www.freestateproject.org)

The radio ad in New Mexico is pretty cool and should play well with conservatives (like me) who feel betrayed by Bush.  Heck, I left the Republican party because I'm sick of him.