Huge Turnout Expected in November

Pew has just released more results from the survey they conducted among 1,806 adults from June 3-13. Don't ask me why they took so long to release these findings, since they are among the most interesting results from any organization in months.

According to the survey, voters are significantly more engaged in this election cycle than they were either in 2000 or 1996. Importantly, most of this increase comes from Democrats and Independents, "who are significantly more engaged than they were at this time four years ago. By contrast, Republicans show a more modest increase in interest, with nearly all of the growth occurring among conservatives within the party."

In fact, liberal Dems are now paying as close attention to the race as conservative GOPers.

Further, in a finding that should make those still smarting from Nader's campaign in 2000 happy, far more people, especially Democrats and independents, believe there is a real difference between Bush and Kerry:


The rise in campaign interest is directly related to a growing sense of the election's importance. The contrast with the last campaign is striking. Four years ago fewer than half of Americans (45%) said it "really matters" who wins the election; today, 63% say the election result really matters. The shift in opinion has been especially notable among Democrats and independents. Fully two-thirds of Democrats and 56% of independents now say they election really matters; fewer than half in both groups expressed that view in June 2000 (46%, 39%).


This could lead to an enormous voter turnout, ala 1992. In that cycle, despite a significantly smaller and younger national population, the same number of votes were cast as in the 2000 election.

Another finding in the poll indicates that moderate / liberal Republicans and liberal Democrats are less satisfied with the two candidates than they were in 2000. Considering this, an anti-war libertarian campaign by, say, Jesse Ventura probably could have scored close to 1992 Perot levels.

However, despite this apparent opening for a third-party candidacy, I still stand by my position that Nader will not be a factor in this race, simply because he will be unable to make many state ballots.

This also indicates that moderate / liberal Republicans are ripe for the plucking by a Democratic campaign that can properly appeal to their libertarian tendencies.



Display:


Nader and ballots (none / 0)

He will be on the ballot in Nevada and Michigan, and likely Oregon. Wisconsin, Minnesota, Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire all have very easy ballot access. He will probably be on the ballot in Florida as well.

All we can hope is that enough people see what a hypocrite and backstabber he is, and realize that a vote for him is 4 more years of Bush.

by Anonymous Citizen on Fri Jul 09, 2004 at 05:16:27 PM EST

Nader not a factor (none / 0)

I agree that Nader will not be a factor.  It is inconceiveable that in this year he could get more than the less than 3% he got in 2000.  Those inclined to vote for him are people who cannot be persuaded to vote for a major party candidate.  It is a waste of time and money to bother with Nader this time around.
by James Earl on Fri Jul 09, 2004 at 07:19:24 PM EST

Small factor, but maybe key (none / 0)

I think you are correct that many of Nader's supporters won't vote for either major party.  But there are some who would, and they aren't well informed - they listen to his anti-corporate story, and his line that there is no difference between the Dems and Repubs.

We should try to convert these 'persuadables'.  I'm particularly worried about Oregon and Florida.  Oregon because it will be close (but Nader probably isn't material - but it's my home (!), and Florida because in 2000 Nader's votes were a multiple of what it would have taken for Gore to take the state.

Dems need to consider some electoral reforms for the future.  

My favorite reform is proportional electoral votes in each state, rather than the current 'winner takes all' in each state.  The current system focuses too much attention on swing states, almost marginalizing the solid red and blue states.

With proportional electoral votes, third parties could exist and make their positions felt, but the election couldn't be manipulated the way the Republicans are doing by supporting Nader as 'spoiler'.

"Pay any price, bear any burden"
by JimPortlandOR on Fri Jul 09, 2004 at 11:54:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Huge Turnout Expected in November (none / 0)

...moderate / liberal Republicans are ripe for the plucking by a Democratic campaign that can properly appeal to their libertarian tendencies....

Absolutely--remember the good ol' days of Waco, black helicopters, and "jack-booted thugs"?  

It seems like we should be able to recapture some lost territory among the electorate with civil liberties/Patriot Act/due process issues.   Shouldn't we be ammering this theme hard, especially in places like Rural OH and PA, and Eastern WA?

Want Blue States? ActBlue.
by brahn on Fri Jul 09, 2004 at 11:44:05 PM EST

hammering, not ammering (none / 0)

('ammering?)
Want Blue States? ActBlue.
by brahn on Fri Jul 09, 2004 at 11:45:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

And Eastern, Southern Oregon as well (NT) (none / 0)


"Pay any price, bear any burden"
by JimPortlandOR on Fri Jul 09, 2004 at 11:55:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

This poll (none / 0)

Thank you discussing this poll. It is, as you suggest, potentially the most important poll taken this year. If it does translate into a really large turnout it could alter the landscape of American politics in a dramatic way. It would surely mean a big Kerry victory - probably a landslide - and could well bring control of the Senate and quite possibly the house. I think everyone should do all they can on a personal level to talk up the importance of the election to less interested friends, relatives etc. and then in the fall spend some significant amount of time working to maximize the turnout. This may be the opportunity of a lifetime.
by Anonymous Citizen on Sat Jul 10, 2004 at 09:54:32 AM EST

Conventional Wisdom (none / 0)

Pew usually constructs their polls pretty carefully.  This one flies in the face of the CW that the election will be close, and may presage a Kerry landslide.  There is so much hanging fire right now that it is hard to tell.
Just a Bump in the Beltway
by Melanie on Sat Jul 10, 2004 at 10:48:06 AM EST

Re: Conventional Wisdom (none / 0)

About 63 percent of Americans said the election outcome this year "really matters," compared with 45 percent four years ago. About 58 percent said they're giving "quite a lot" of thought to the election, up from 46 percent in 2000.

The increased interest extends to young voters, who typically pay little attention to politics. About 53 percent of voters ages 18-29 said they're giving quite a lot of thought to the election, up from 35 percent in 2000.

Great post!

by Anonymous Citizen on Sat Jul 10, 2004 at 12:26:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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