Should Kerry opt out of public financing?

Yes,without a doubt. On The Hill (via Political Wire) there's finally chatter about Kerry opting out of taking the public financing in the fall campaign, and instead relying on his donor base for the final three months of the campaign.

There are negatives. It might siphon off campaign funds from other Democratic campaigns. It wouldn't fund GOTV efforts by Kerry, but instead more TV commercials. But one negative, which Tony Coelho argues, is nonexistent; that of it being a "big negative" politically as "pro-[Ralph] Nader people would seize on it." Cohelo apparently forgets that Dean successfully opted out of public financing, and that didn't hurt Dean among the "pro-Nader people."

The positives outweigh the negatives. Kerry will raise over $100 million, at least. Then there is the argument of fiscal responsibility. Imagine the offensive. In a time with record deficits, how can George Bush justify stripping another $72 million out of the treasure just to fund his political campaign? There's no reason why the Government should be paying for political campaigns, none at all, and Bush should back out of campaign welfare, especially given the record deficits he's created.

So what if Bush does so as well, given Bush only has two months of campaigning after accepting the GOP nomination, his possible spending spree will max out at $75-100 million anyway. Besides, the Democratic Party can match them now.

The biggest boon of CFR was that it put the onus back onto the average partisan Joe & Mary to put their money where their vote stood. Post-CFR, without the soft money millions, the Democratic Party was either going to wither on the vine, or resurrect the activist as the financial backbone of the Party. Over $100 million in online donations (most of it small donors) to John Kerry later, the Party is back on it's feet. In what's probably the most underreported story of the election, Kerry has been outraising Bush for months now, forcing the Bush campaign to raise an additional $50-75 million than they had originally planned necessary.

Update (Chris): If this is a trial balloon, let’s put it to a trial. I have made this the front page poll, since the previous one about Edwards was nearly unanimous.



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Hold a Vote (none / 0)

Some derided the Dean campaign's vote on opting out of the public financing system, but it was the right thing to do considering that the people voting were the people who were going to do the donating.

Kerry should do the same--ask the people who are doing the donating whether or not they think it is a good idea. I have a feeling this time around the vote would be a little closer.

Hold the vote both online and through the mail on the Monday and Tuesday of the convention. Announce the results Thursday morning. Not only is it the right thing to do, it would make the convention quite a bit more exciting.

by Chris Bowers on Wed Jul 07, 2004 at 11:27:59 AM EST

Re: Hold a Vote (none / 0)

The Dean campaign pretty well telegraphed their intention of wanting 'yes' votes. Yea, that would add some excitement and unpredictability to the convention. But, given the control-freak nature of the event, the latter pretty much kills the possibility of it happening. Unless they are able to buy the entire month of August airtime by the end of July, I think the Kerry camp will decide to go ahead and do it. They seem pretty intent on having an even ground to fight on, and this might be the tiral ballon before they announce the decision.
by Jerome Armstrong on Wed Jul 07, 2004 at 11:34:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hold a Vote (none / 0)

Sure the Dean campaign telegraphed it (did you write any of those releases?) but at the very least it was nice to ask. When I was giving to the Dean campaign, I was pretty broke (that hasn't changed much). With all the new small donors, I bet there are a lot of people out there like me. Also, many have already moved into a "donate elsewhere" mindset, so asking and holding a vote would, at the very least, be polite. $100M ain't small change.
by Chris Bowers on Wed Jul 07, 2004 at 11:42:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Opt-out: I don't know (none / 0)

I'm not sure.  I have wondered about this.  $75 million is not chump change, and I'm worried about taking money away from other Demcrats.  I gave to Dean, but I haven't given to Kerry, because I'm broke.

People have made plans based on the assumption that Kerry will take the public financing.  

by Abby on Wed Jul 07, 2004 at 11:59:50 AM EST

I disagree (none / 0)

First of all, Jerome, I'm not as sanguine as you that Kerry could raise another $100 million between now and November, and secondly, your point that the attempt would suck money out of the down-ticket races is an important one. As much as we need Kerry in office, we need Congress--at least competitive races that force incumbents to spend more time worrying about their own asses instead of the President's ass.

I'm one of those new activists you talk about at the end--one of those people the Democratic party has returned to after lo these many years looking for money--and while I like giving, I'm limited in my ability, so I have to pick and choose my spots. I've given to Kerry and now I'm focused on Congressional races, and I'm giving all I can afford right now. Don't make me choose between Kerry and the Congressional races. Kerry's got a legitimate source of funds for the post-convention period, a source I've been paying into as long as it's been on the tax sheet. Let him take that and I'll send my $20 donations to smaller races for the rest of the year.

We shall not cease from exploration And the end of all our exploring Will be to arrive where we started And know the place for the first time. T. S. Eliot
by Incertus on Wed Jul 07, 2004 at 12:04:20 PM EST

Re: I disagree (none / 0)

Remember, Kerry and Edwards can go back to those $2000 donors and get another check from them. I don't know exactly how much that would be, but is there 50,000 of them nationwide? I dunno, but probably 20,000, which gives them $40M off the bat. I don't really think the money is a problem, and that Dem donors are going to be plenty.

The bigger problem would be framing the issue, which is what I tried to tackle in the post. Because for Kerry to do this effectively, he needs to take it to Bush in doing so, not just taking the heat and hoping it doesn't hurt. The majority of voters hate the idea of publically funding the TV ads in political campaigns, so turn the eqation and make Bush pay hide for taking that campaign welfare money.

by Jerome Armstrong on Wed Jul 07, 2004 at 01:14:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The number of $2000 donors (none / 0)

Isn't it possible to figure out these numbers from the Kerry fund raising numbers?  He's raised $180mm.  How much of that is small donations vs. how much of that is $2000 max donations.  I'd guess something along a $100mm for the former and $80mm for the latter.  But that's wild speculation.  

Then, you have to figure what % of the latter number, the $2000 donations, can repeat.  Not all of them can, I bet. Let's say 90%.  Of the percentage who can repeat a $2000 donations, how many of them would have funneled those funds to other campaigns?  Again, 90%.  That's 81% of the original $2000 donors who can repeat without affecting other congressional races.

IF there were $80mm of these to begin with, that means we can raise $64mm without affecting any other races.  Which means to hit Jerome's target of $100mm, $36mm will get siphoned out of other races.   You know, that just might be worth it.  Obviously, I'm pulling numbers out of thin air here, but if someone who has a better gauge on the real numbers can fill them in, we can get something better than my wild speculation.

Also, this ignores the effect of possibly an increase in the $2000 donor base for the general.  You see a gradual increase in overall donor base over time(eg. grassroots, small donors), but what about the $2000 donor base?  I could see this happening if Kerry builds momentum and more rich people want to buy influence.

by Anonymous Citizen on Wed Jul 07, 2004 at 01:52:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The number of $2000 donors (none / 0)

And don't forget John Edwards base of $2K donors,the lawyers. He got nearly $10M from them fairly easily in 2003, and would probably bring double that again.
by Jerome Armstrong on Wed Jul 07, 2004 at 02:15:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The number of $2000 donors (none / 0)

You folks are missing the point. Kerry's got what $75 million guaranteed in public money? That's plenty, even considering that he has to make it stretch a little longer than Bushco does.

But if Kerry and Edwards retap those people they've already hit up, then the money they might have given to the party or to local candidates is gone. And the scenario gets worse if you assume that Kerry is going to do better than the $75 million in public money.

Lots of people have been talking up the message this would send to the country--that the Democrats are ready to take the Republicans on in the money game to win the big prize. Sorry, but the message it sends to me is that we're so concerned with winning the high profile race that we're willing to shaft all the people who aren't so high profile.

We're not the party of the fatcats--at least we're not supposed to be. Yes, Bush has to go, but we can beat him with the public money. Don't forget, DeLay and Frist need to go as much as, or even more than Bush needs to go, and if Kerry sucks up all the funding for down ticket races just to prove that he can beat the Republicans in fundraising and we don't take back the Congress as a result, then we'll have done all this for nothing.

We shall not cease from exploration And the end of all our exploring Will be to arrive where we started And know the place for the first time. T. S. Eliot
by Incertus on Wed Jul 07, 2004 at 10:57:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Should Kerry opt out of public financing? (none / 0)

No, very bad idea. The "issue" of draining money from other candidates is not a throwaway. It's absolutely HUGE. If Kerry asks for it, we'll figure out a way to get him his $100m. Because we have no choice. But probably half of that, at least, will come directly out of the pockets of the DNC, the DCCC, the DSCC, and most of all the candidates.

On top of that, we can't forget that Bush just has richer supporters than Kerry. If Bush is given the opportunity to opt out without taking the political heat (which a Kerry opt-out would do), then watch out. He could have another $200 million without blinking. Yes, Kerry has been outraising him, but remember that he essentially stopped fundraising for BC04 some time ago. Don't wake a sleeping dog.

I don't think there's any way Kerry does it. The August "problem" is not so bad, given that few people are home that month anyway (remember Wolfowitz's famous line about August being a bad time to "introduce produce," in reference to the Iraq invasion?). And the few who are home will be watching the Olympics, which even Bush can't afford to advertise on with any regularity.

by ColoDem on Wed Jul 07, 2004 at 12:11:11 PM EST

Re: Should Kerry opt out of public financing? (none / 0)

OT minor correction: Card, not Wolfowitz
unfutz
by Ed Fitzgerald on Wed Jul 07, 2004 at 02:37:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Should Kerry opt out of public financing? (none / 0)

& products, not produce.
by Anonymous Citizen on Wed Jul 07, 2004 at 02:45:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

It's a big advantage for Bush either way (none / 0)

$75M for two months of campaigning is just fine - there'd be no reason for Bush to opt out.  That means he can spend every second of his time asking for votes from the uncommitted rather than begging the choir for more dough during the final phase of the campaign.  

I see Kerry at a big disadvantage whether he opts in or out.  The Repubs have exploited the system, and have gained a big advantage on this score.

What I'd really like to see is a definitive answer to what it is Kerry can and can't do with his money once he accepts the nomination.  Can he prepay staff in July?  Can he buy ad time now that would run in October?  Can he prepay for car rentals and other things?  I've seen this question posed many times but nobody seems to know the answer.

by danielj on Wed Jul 07, 2004 at 12:22:55 PM EST

Re: It's a big advantage for Bush either way (none / 0)

Answer:  No on all counts.
by Anonymous Citizen on Wed Jul 07, 2004 at 01:11:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Should Kerry opt out of public financing? (none / 0)

I agree with Jerome Armstrong. I think the issue of draining money from other races needs to be considered carefully and that it is the only possible negative. Personally I doubt that Bush could match Kerry if the Repugs also decided to opt out of the public financing. Yes his supporters are richer but they are also contributing as an investment in influence and favors that they expect to get if he wins. With the choice of Edwards the lead in the Iowa futures market reversed and FOR THE FIRST TIME IN THIS CAMPAIGN there is a preponderant expectation of a Kerry victory among people who are willing to bet money on the outcome. If this continues and gains momentum then the Bush contributors will dry up. They are in it for the money. No previous poll or predictive index had ever shown anything but the expectation of a Bush victory even with polls that showed Kerry significantly ahead, so this development will have a major impact on fund raiding if it continues. I think opting out of the public financing system would give Kerry a significant andvantage and he will need every advantage he can get to defeat these totally unscrupulous criminals.
by Anonymous Citizen on Wed Jul 07, 2004 at 12:32:22 PM EST

It's a bad idea... (none / 0)

I think it would be a bad idea.  I do, however, think that having a public discussion about it would be a good idea.  $75 million will be enough, I think , and it's a heck of a lot of money to pull away from the congressional races.  If we have a public discussion about it, it will raise awareness from those Dean inspired people and get them to donate to either the party or to local races.  This would be the best outcome, I think.
by Anonymous Citizen on Wed Jul 07, 2004 at 12:38:29 PM EST

i think it's a great idea (none / 0)

Is there any recent polling data available that tests the viability of this idea in a presidential campaign? It would be interesting to see how Americans would react to a plan like this.  Certainly, like Jerome said, it's all about charazterization.  However, instead of going after Bush, I think it would make more sense to avoid the negative characterization and establish some coherent theme out of the process. It all started with thanking the website contributors with the Edwards email...if they're going to get rid of Bush what they're going to have to do is make this a community effort.

When people invest, they take ownership.  When people feel ownership they contribute more time, $$, effort, etc. toward an effort.  Instead of this being about Bush NOT saving the taxpayers $75 million, this should be about the people in this country who want change stepping up to the plate and taking a more active role in the completion of the campaign.  Instead of being spoken to by advertisements, they're continually asked to step up and do more to effectuate change. Turn it into a movement...If we're all so concerned about Bush, then why should we have a fundraising limit or baseline? If we want our candidate to win, then why should a far-right wing member of the Republican party have a fraction (albeit) microcsopic fraction of their donated tax dollars go to someone who they would never vote for?  Make it about ownership...about duty to country...about dedication to a cause and I think you turn this issue into something people will accept...and if you're an Independent...respect.

by bthowell79 on Wed Jul 07, 2004 at 04:26:02 PM EST

Treasury funds (none / 0)

The $75 million (for each candidate) does not come from the general treasury - it is earmarked funds, from the "check-off" box on our tax returns.  It will not help (or hurt) the deficit whether Kerry (or anyone) take (or refuses) this cash.  It'll just sit in the account.

So that argument doesn't really fly.  The alternative argument:  parity.  Kerry can say Bush has 5 extra weeks to raise $$ (although he appears to be pretty much done, and even if he raises it, he can't spend it after the convention).

So I'm conflicted.  I don't know.

by PeteyP on Wed Jul 07, 2004 at 10:19:27 PM EST

Time (none / 0)

(sorry for duplicate: posted this on the poll thread by mistake)

How much time would Kerry/Edwards/their staff have to spend fundraising to get the money? I'd rather they were out in swing states and not asking for cash from certain democrats.

I also think there is a diminishing return: the 10th ad buy has less impact than the 5th, but you can always run one additional campaign trip to meet and greet and generate local press coverage somewhere new.

Add to that the drain on other democratic fundraising, and opting out looks bad to me.

Why not read Things I've Seen
by tis on Thu Jul 08, 2004 at 02:50:37 AM EST

Don't throw away $75m (none / 0)

If you assume that Kerry can raise $100m easily, then you are necessarily assuming that there is $100m out there to be raised.  What does that money do if Kerry doesn't take it?

Some will surely sit in the pockets of the potential donors.  Kerry (and especially Edwards) will be able to ask donors to give more to his campaign than they would have given otherwise.  I.e., if Jane Donor will give $1000 to the DNC if Kerry stays public, she might be convinved to give $1500 to Kerry if he opts-out.  So there may be an increase in gross private contributions to Dem politics.

But, equally certain, is that much of that money will come at the expense of other candidates, DNC/DCCC/DSCC, and - don't forget! - 527s or traditional special interest groups like NOW, NARAL, Sierra Club, etc.  While gross private contributions will rise, it will not be by enough to offset the loss of $75m.

If there are lots of small donors out there who still want to contribute, there are lots of candidates who need help.  If those donors only want to help Kerry, they can give to the DNC and the 527s.  The same goes for anyone who's already given the candidate or DNC-max: 527s can use the money too!  If Kerry is smart, he'll sell his list of Veep-Announce email addresses and contributor lists to the DNC and the 527s - let them shake the trees while he takes the $75m.

A strong education campaign for new donors will be essential after the Convention: many potential donors may see the convention, get excited, and want to contribute.  But when they go to the website, they'll find out that they can't.  They may feel unwilling or uncertain about contributing to the DNC or some 527 that they don't know anything about, so there needs to a big effort to educate them and redirect them so they understand that their donations are still needed, and how to make them.

Lastly: Although Dems may not be able to raise an extra $75m, Bush certainly can.  Please don't throw him into that briar patch.

by Anonymous Citizen on Thu Jul 08, 2004 at 08:47:15 AM EST

If all races were publicy funded (none / 0)

Then we wouldn't have any special-interest money in the races.

Would you rather pay a little first, or a lot later with pawns for reps?

I'm surprised the great Jerome Armstrong misses this.

by Anonymous Citizen on Thu Jul 08, 2004 at 09:03:55 AM EST

Re: If all races were publicy funded (none / 0)

I would be fine with it, given a total reform package of campaigns. However, the way it's done now, it's basically susidizing the consultancy/camapign profession, which I don't support.
by Jerome Armstrong on Thu Jul 08, 2004 at 09:02:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

one big drawback... (none / 0)

there is one huge negative: kerry would have to spend a lot of time fundraising. edwards too. if they take the govt money, they can focus on campaigning full-time.
by Anonymous Citizen on Thu Jul 08, 2004 at 01:37:32 PM EST

No, No, No, No (none / 0)

As someone working in three underfunded Congressional races, I assure you that we are looking forward to the post-Convention period where we can get some attention from larger donors who won't answer "Man, I'd love to help, but there's this Kerry event coming up . . ."

by Anonymous Citizen on Sat Jul 10, 2004 at 08:18:29 AM EST


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