From a state that often does well in a certain other "dance," it is perhaps appropriate that the entire state is now a central focus of the biggest dance of all. In the 2004 election, North Carolina is officially a toss-up.

In 2000, North Carolina had a partisan index of GOP +13.3, virtually identical to its partisan index of GOP +13.2 in 1996. However, as I wrote two months ago, well before Edwards was chosen as Vice-President, it was pretty clear that the state's partisan index would be far less favorable to the GOP in 2004. Here are all of the Bush vs. Kerry post-Super Tuesday trial heats from North Carolina:

Research 2000, 6/13-16,
600 LV, MoE 4
Bush	47
Kerry	42

Rasmussen, 6/1-6/30,
500 LV, MoE 4.5 (3/1-3/13 results in parenthesis)
Bush	49 (51)
Kerry	42 (43)

Mason-Dixon, 5/14-17, 625 "active"
voters, MoE 4
Bush	48
Kerry	41

Bush / Cheney  46
Kerry / Edwards 45

Internal Democratic Poll, from the subscriber section of Polling Report, 
3/30-4/1, 600 LV, MoE 4
Bush	51
Kerry	44

Since Super Tuesday, Bush has consistently held a lead of around six or seven points on Kerry in North Carolina. This is only half of what the partisan index indicated Bush should have been leading by in North Carolina if the race was tied nationally. The only poll conducted in the state that measured a Kerry / Edwards ticket vs. Bush / Cheney showed a dead heat. Further, below the trial heats and into the unfavorables, it was clear that Kerry had a real shot at North Carolina on his own:

Research 2000
Bush    37
Kerry   34

Mason-Dixon
Bush    38
Kerry   36

Astoundingly, Kerry's unfavorables are actually slightly lower than Bush's in North Carolina, meaning that his universe of potential voters is actually slightly higher than Bush's--and that was before Edwards!. What have the three most recent Democratic VP's brought to their home state?

     Partisan Swing in VP Home State
Bentsen 	    DNC +4.4
Gore	    DNC +7.7
Lieberman	    DNC +7.4

Bentsen was from Texas, the same state the 1988 GOP Presidential nominee, Bush I, called home. Even then, he brought a 4.4 pro-DNC swing. If Edwards brings the same swing to North Carolina that Gore brought to TN and Lieberman brought to CT, then Bush's consistent six or seven point lead is completely erased.

Welcome to the dance, Tar Heels.