MyDD :: The Doom Index

The Doom Index

by Chris Bowers, Fri Jul 30, 2004 at 09:36:23 PM EST

Fiddling around with some numbers tonight, I came up with a new, fun little toy: "The Doom Index." It is my belief that if Bush's unfavorables cross 50, then he is officially doomed on November 2. On the other hand, if Kerry's unfavorables surpass Bush's, then Kerry is officially doomed on November 2. If both candidates cross into "doom" territory, then Jesse Ventura will rue the day he didn't run as an independent.

I'll update the Doom Index every so often on the President 2004 page. For today, July 30, Bush's Doom Index is 6.5, and Kerry's is 7.5. The higher the number, the further away a candidate is from electoral doom. Right now, for example, Bush's unfavorables come to a central mean of 43.6 (6.5 from crossing 50) and Kerry's unfavorables come to 36.2 (7.5 from surpassing Bush). The Doom Index is calculated by taking the central mean of all unfavorable numbers conducted within the last two weeks.

Tags: General 2008 (all tags)

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oh my (none / 0)

This is friggin hilarious.

Sadly, I don't know what can lower Bush's unfavorables. Hittin 1,000 deaths in Iraq, which at this rate will happen the week after the GOP convention, might lower them. A massive stock market collapse might lower them. $50/barrel for oil might lower them. Railing against the medicare bill might help.

But Bush is running ads on stuff like Partial Birth abortion and the Unborn Victims of Violence act, and it isn't driving up Kerry's unfavorables. The response seems to be "who cares? How are you going to fix the health care system?"

by Anonymous Citizen on Fri Jul 30, 2004 at 10:46:26 PM EST

That should be (none / 0)

"raise bush's unfavorables".

Although, shouldn't you be looking at Bush's job approval, and not his personal favorability rating?

by Anonymous Citizen on Fri Jul 30, 2004 at 10:47:10 PM EST

raising bush's unfavorables (none / 0)

Actually the 'right direction/wrong direction' numbers are more valid that bush's approval ratings. The Doom Index (great name!) should probably use/incorporate those numbers. Most political experts seem to say that if the wrong direction numbers are at certain level, which they currently are, bush has no chance of re-election.
And, it's a less confrontational number than bush's approval/disapproval numbers, so you get a more honest answer.

Rant Du Jour

by myjlf on Sat Jul 31, 2004 at 12:19:54 AM EST

Re: The Doom Index (none / 0)

the right direction/wrong direction difference is about 10-15 depending on what poll you read.hard to see bush getting re-elected with these numbers. i live in a republican state and people around here do not understand this election. most
people actually can`t see america voting in kerry like the people of america are not that stupid. just amazing we may have a lot of amazed conservatives in november.

by Anonymous Citizen on Sat Jul 31, 2004 at 07:16:33 AM EST

Kerry 55% - Bush 40% . (none / 0)

New after convention poll done July 29, 30. (After Kerry's speech) shows Kerry 55% - Bush 40% .

HELP IS ON THE WAY !

by Anonymous Citizen on Sat Jul 31, 2004 at 09:07:39 AM EST