Pollkatz is back! It's the gas price stupid!

Great day, Professor Pollkatz is back from haitus. I still miss the original chart of the Bush Index (I want my crossover), but everything else is back and updated, check it out.

And, as I've long suspected, the approval rating of Bush is directly tied to the price of gasoline. Whenever I've mentioned this hypothesis to people in person, they listen and then give a chuckle, probably thinking to themselves, 'yea, right, people aren't that simplistic'. Well, the fact that there are people for whom the price of gasoline means more to them than the politics of ideas is lunatic; but, here's the chart showing Bush's approval following the trendline indication of gasoline prices.

There's been a slide in the gasoline prices of late. At about 80 on the index is the resistance/support level. Mark this down: above 80, Bush's approval is good enough, but, below 80, he falls short. As the professor says:

This is important, folks. Bush's approval ratings go up and down with the cheapness of gasoline. It looks like maybe our election is in the hands of the Saudis. For more details on why the Saudis may "elect" to play this game, see Farenheit 9/11, now playing in a theater near you.



Display:


Silly! (none / 0)

Surely you jest....

(correlation isn't causation anymore today than it was yesterday)

Bush's approval ranking does follow the average daily temperate divided by the average daily rainfall in Portland, however.

"Pay any price, bear any burden"
by JimPortlandOR on Sat Jul 03, 2004 at 03:36:28 PM EST

mockery (none / 0)

Your example proves (with its laughable falsity) why the gas/approval correlation is important. There is clearly a connection between the two numbers, trending so closely, despite many ups and downs, across the Bush presidency. Correlation does not equal causation, but where there's smoke, there's fire. When the Saudis "drop" gas prices this Fall (relative to their inflated level), as they promised when Cheney illegally showed literally Top Secret intelligence plans for his desired Iraq invasion to the Saudi Ambassador to the US, the tail will wag the dog back into the White House.
by Anonymous Citizen on Tue Jul 06, 2004 at 01:24:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: mockery (none / 0)

Yes, and in this case, the numbers are probably both tied to a third factor.  There are a number reasons for this.  

First, the graphs are out of phase at important points.  The big jump around Sep 2001 peaks well before the gas price graph hits its minimum (remember, higher the gas graph, lower the price).  This would imply that gas prices are following Bush's approval rating, whereas, the claim is that people look at gas prices, and the lower the price, the more they approve of the shrub.  But, inspection would state that this isn't entirely true.  

Second, there is at least one maximum in gas prices around Mar 2003 which is anti-correlated with a jump in Bush's approval.  

There are a few more things like this, but I picked out these two features to point out the obvious third factor.  9/11 happens to correlate much better with Bush's approval maximum, and Mar 2003 marks the beginning of the Iraq war, which itself caused an increase in gas prices for various reasons.  

I would say this correlation has more to do with the fact that Bush is mucking with political and economic factors which drive gas prices rather than Joe Sixpack deciding whether he likes Bush or not based on how much it costs to fill up his Durango.

This is your fire, so I don't think the Saudi's are going to be able to throw the election by dropping gas prices.  

Jeff

by Anonymous Citizen on Thu Jul 08, 2004 at 06:06:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Fundraising Questions (none / 0)

I little off-topic, but I posted these questions on Kos and have not gotten any helpful responses so far:

Clearly, July 29 will be a momentous day for the Kerry campaign.  Kerry will give a nationally televised speech at the DNC convention and will then formally accept the Democratic nomination for President.
At that point, Kerry accepts $75 million in public funds for the general election.  He can no longer fundraise, and is likewise limited to spending a total of $75 million on his campaign.

This leads me to ask a number of questions, which I hope some of the electioneering experts who read DKos can answer.

 If Kerry has surplus funds on July 29, can he turn those funds over, "lock, stock and barrel," to the Democratic National Committee ("DNC")?
 Clearly, the DNC can spend money on voter registration and "get out the vote" campaigns.  However, can it also spend money for the explicit purpose of getting Kerry elected?  Can it run Bush attack-ads on national TV?  Can it run pro-Kerry biography ads?
 Can the DNC coordinate its efforts with the Kerry campaign?
On July 29th, I may contribute money to the DNC.  However, I don't want to do so if the DNC can't use the money to kick Bush out of office.  That is why I am hoping some of you can provide answers to these questions.


by Anonymous Citizen on Sat Jul 03, 2004 at 04:54:54 PM EST

Re: Fundraising Questions (none / 0)

Based on what I know, and I'm fairly sure, I'll wing it: No, that's why Gore had ~6M leftover in 2000. Kerry has to spend it all before his nomination (that doesn't mean it actually has to have been used, just spent, ie paid for). Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes. The DNC is already fully coordinating for post-convention, for Kerry.
by Jerome Armstrong on Sat Jul 03, 2004 at 05:12:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Surplus Funds can go to party after nomination (none / 0)

An article at NY Times says this about unspent funds from Kerry campaign after accepting nomination:

"Any money left over after the campaigns pay expenses from the primaries can be handed to the national party committees, according to the Federal Elections Commission."

NY Times

An interesting question for Kerry is whether he will repay the loan he personally made to the campaign ($6M+) within the 2 weeks or so after the nomination, which is the deadline for this in law.

I think he should, but there are PR aspects of this.  The alternatives for repayment aren't clear, but his salary won't hack it as President.  His wife's funds cannot be used to repay this loan.

"Pay any price, bear any burden"
by JimPortlandOR on Sat Jul 03, 2004 at 06:26:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Thanks!!! (none / 0)

That is great news.  I am definitely contributing $$ to DNC come 7/29.  

FYI -- I am going to cross-post your answer on Kos, and see if it leads to further comment.

by Anonymous Citizen on Sat Jul 03, 2004 at 05:16:18 PM EST

Gas price responds to Bush popularity (none / 0)

Unless I'm reading the graph incorrectly, the relationship goes the other way.  Bush goes up or down, and then the price of gas follows (reversed).  

Maybe the Saudis are manipulating the price of gas in response to the rise and fall in Bush's rating, but other than that (unlikely) possibility, I can't see what the connection is.

Business Secrets from the Stars - a novel
by DavidD on Sun Jul 04, 2004 at 11:06:50 AM EST

Re: Gas price responds to Bush popularity (none / 0)

Yea, you're reading the chart wrong. The gasoline price chart is inverse-- when it moves up, the price is going down, which then moves Bush's approval up.
by Jerome Armstrong on Sun Jul 04, 2004 at 11:33:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Gas price responds to Bush popularity (none / 0)

Jerome, no, you misunderstand my objection.

I understand about the gas price line being inverted.  I'm talking about the time order of things.  Yes, the two are correlated, but the line for Bush's approval changes before the line for gas price changes.  So the cause-effect relationship, if it exists, is the opposite from what the original post said.

Business Secrets from the Stars - a novel
by DavidD on Sun Jul 04, 2004 at 08:01:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Ok, maybe... (none / 0)

But aren't there a lot of unconsidered variables here?  Bush's approval also has a lot to do with how Iraq is going, and when it looks like it's going very badly, oil goes up and Bush goes down.

Sure there's a correlation.  But rule #1 of science is that correlation is not necessarily indicative of causation.

Do not go gentle into that good night...

by tenacity on Sun Jul 04, 2004 at 07:49:31 PM EST

Re: Ok, maybe... (none / 0)

Yea, the number one variable is in the pocketbook that's hit when you fill it up. That "Bush's approval also has a lot to do with how Iraq is going" is built upon the same sort of correlation type of measurement.
by Jerome Armstrong on Sun Jul 04, 2004 at 08:03:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

correlation vs causation (none / 0)

doesnt matter
if the correlation is predictive

plus people are simple
the average IQ is 100

when gas goes up in price, everything we buy goes up according to its shipping cost
travel goes up, vacations get more expensive

price of gas IS a predictor of price of virtually everything else.

people are HAPPY when things are cheaper
people are unhappy when they have less money

people blame or reward the president
does not matter that he has NOTHING to do with the price, it is his fault
;)

Pete

by Anonymous Citizen on Tue Jul 06, 2004 at 03:41:26 AM EST

Re: Pollkatz is back! It's the gas price stupid! (none / 0)

I don't think people aren't that stupid. How about this for a mechanism - gas price varies according to the level of instability in Iraq. As Iraq becomes more unstable, people lose confidence in Bush and hence he falls in the polls. Seems more logical to me.
by Anonymous Citizen on Tue Jul 06, 2004 at 05:02:26 AM EST

Sugar Free Jazz (none / 0)

A Soul Coughing song,
by Anonymous Citizen on Tue Jul 06, 2004 at 07:42:29 AM EST

Re: Pollkatz is back! It's the gas price stupid! (none / 0)

US people are that stupid.
(I have lived in the smarter sections, NY & San Francisco, and they werent that smart)
They are so stupid that they dont know whats going on in Iraq.
They can count the change left after they fill up their stupid vehicles
ubu roy
by gbruno on Mon Jul 03, 2006 at 09:25:38 PM EST


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