For the better part of four months, this race has been effectively tied, with the two candidates running at about 45 percent or 46 percent, give or take 3 percentage points, depending upon the poll, the week, and the events leading into the survey. Since Kerry's choice of Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina to be his running mate, the Democratic ticket has ticked up about 2 to 4 points, and is ever-so-slightly ahead in most polls. The mistake that many make is to assume that a tie in the polls means that the two candidates have equal chances of winning. Not so.

An axiom in politics is that undecided voters rarely end up casting their ballots for well-known, well-defined incumbents. If a well-known and established incumbent picks up one-quarter to one-third of the undecided vote, he is lucky indeed. Just a cursory look at the current pool of undecided voters suggests that Bush is unlikely to get even one-quarter of the undecided vote.(...)

Among all registered voters, 41 percent agreed with the statement that the country was headed in the right direction, while 56 percent thought it was off on the wrong track. But among undecided voters, only 18 percent said that the country was headed in the right direction, and 75 percent said it was on the wrong track.(...)

On Bush's job-approval rating, 49 percent of those surveyed approved of the president's overall performance, and another 49 percent disapproved. But among undecided voters, only 22 percent approved, and 69 percent disapproved.