MyDD :: With and Without Fox

With and Without Fox

by Chris Bowers, Thu Jul 01, 2004 at 01:52:27 PM EST

Cross posted from the Swing State Project

Just how much are the Fox polls from last week propping up Bush? I have run the numbers for how much they affect my projections:

General Election Cattle Call, 7/1, With Fox Polls
National Two-Party Vote Projection
Kerry: 51.25
Bush:  48.75
Status: Too close to call

Electoral Vote Projection
Bush:  274
Kerry: 264
States Changing Hands: NH to Kerry

General Election Cattle Call, 7/1, Without Fox Polls
National Two-Party Vote Projection
Kerry: 52.03
Bush:  47.97
Status: Lean Kerry

Electoral Vote Projection
Kerry: 311
Bush:  227
States Changing Hands: FL, NH and Ohio to Kerry

Kerry Lead, Important States
	 With Fox		 Without Fox
FL	  -0.02 		    2.1
MI	   3.4		    5.7
MO	  -1.4		   -0.5
OH	  -1.6		    0.3
PA	   4.6		    7.1
WV	  -0.9		   -0.02

In short, Fox turns a slight Kerry lead into a race that is too close to call. Fox News--we report, but only after receiving directions from the RNC.

Tags: General 2008 (all tags)

Permalink :: 6 Comments :: Post a Comment

Faux: Fair and Balanced (none / 0)

with a thumb on the scale...

Someday they will have to explain how their polls varied from the actual result.

(unless their numbers are those to be programmed into the e-voting machines....).

"Pay any price, bear any burden"

by JimPortlandOR on Thu Jul 01, 2004 at 02:51:40 PM EST

Here it is (none / 0)

In the end, mark my words- we will end up here:

Kerry 52%
Bush 47%
Nader > 1%
Other > 1%

Why?

The one thing all the polls show is that Bush has no pick up. There are no Gore-Bush voters- people who voted Gore and now vote Bush. Bush has his own bae 47-48% and thats it.

Nader, who will be on fewer then 25 state ballots will get less then 1% of the vote- and so too will all other third party candidates.

That leaves 51-52% for Kerry. This will translate into about 300 electoral votes.

The right wing media will spin it as a "lackluster win", but it will be the biggest share of the vote since 1988 for any candidate, and the biggest night for Democrats since 1964, as kerry will out do Carter by about 1%.

Dems will pick up 15 house seats and 1 seanate seat (net).

by Anonymous Citizen on Thu Jul 01, 2004 at 04:55:17 PM EST

What about Zogby polls? (none / 0)

Yes, it's true that Fox leans hard to the right and that removing Fox polls from consideration makes the race look more favorable for Kerry, but Zogby polls have been shown to be radically left-leaning. As a strong Democrat, I like the optimistic numbers, but I'd like to see the results "With and Without Zogby".

by Anonymous Citizen on Thu Jul 01, 2004 at 07:03:13 PM EST

Re: What about Zogby polls? (none / 0)

They are both without Zogby. Besides, I don't include Zogby trial heats or job ratings anyway. He always only released "likely" voters (I try to only include registered voters in trial heats), and his approve / disapprove is done along the strange Excellent / Good / Fair / Poor scale. The only I Zogby I ever use are favorable numbers, and he hasn't released any of those in many weeks.

by Chris Bowers on Thu Jul 01, 2004 at 08:27:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Well then, (none / 0)

Perhaps I'm suggesting the obvious here: since Fox News appears to be such an outlier, why not drop their data from your projections? There's no way to really be sure that they're wrong, of course, but since you're already rejecting Zogby polls on the basis of methodology, it makes sense to reject Fox News polls on the basis of bias, or at the very least, the appearance of bias.

I guess this is really a question about your goal. If your goal is to provide an accurate picture of the race based on aggregate polling data, then I think dropping Fox (as well as any other organizations that are consistent outliers) is probably the right thing to do. If your goal is to provide a metric on big-media poll coverage, then keep them in, but give us breakdowns like this one. If your goal is to attempt to do both at once, then I submit to you that it's not possible to do so accurately in our current political and media climate.

by Anonymous Citizen on Fri Jul 02, 2004 at 10:16:15 AM EST

Re: Well then, (none / 0)

Removing Fox altogether is certainly worth considering. I still have not made up my mind, however.

by Chris Bowers on Fri Jul 02, 2004 at 02:39:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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