The more I learn about Democratic candidate Samara Barend and her race, the more hopeful I am about her ability to take an open seat that in a district that traditionally leans Republican.  The 29th district in Western New York state is an economically depressed area that went heavily to Bush in 2000.  While women are an important constituency group in this district and Barend is well-situated to gather those votes, there are three other undercurrents that suggest Barend is a likely winner here:

• Even though it leans right-ward, the 29th has a heavy independent streak, with lots of Perot voters disgusted with politics.  The Kentucky and South Dakota special elections showed how a populist Democrat can pick up relatively conservative districts by appealing to notions of competence, voter disgust, and good government.  Traditional charges of 'liberal' aren't working anymore, especially in districts like the 29th which are more socially liberal and concerned with women's rights but still retain connections to an older Rockefeller Republican past.  The Democrats have in the past few years taken over parts of New York state that are traditionally heavily Republican (like Nassau County).  This is part of a realignment towards the Democrats in the North that is mirroring the realignment towards the GOP in the South.
  
• The Republican Party in the 29th is clearly a disliked old-boys club rent by infighting between moderates and conservatives. Amo Houghton, the retiring Congressman, is a member of the mainstreet Republican coalition - a group of moderates - and voted against tax cuts and the Iraq war.  He has endorsed moderate state Senator Randy Kuhl, but Mark Assini is challenging Kuhl, charging him with raising taxes and spending while in the state Senate.  It's a blood feud - rumors are that Assini may even get a big boost from the Club for Growth, and he might run as an independent should he lose the primary to Kuhl (5-10%).  
  
• Barend is in the second Dean Dozen, she has lots of support from New York young Democrats, and she could potentially draw huge support from New York State women's groups.  Her approach to organizing colleges in her district echoes that of Jennifer Granholm's successful strategy in Michigan (organizing dorms versus Rock the Vote style celebrity endorsements), and there are 15 colleges in the 29th district.  That said, it was a group of Republican businessmen who approached her to run for Congress, and her effective work on bringing Federal infrastructure money to the district has endeared her to the small business community.

There are obstacles to Barend winning this district - she is 26 and relatively inexperienced - and this is an area that traditionally skews Perot-type rightward (which is why this pic-up opportunity is stupidly being ignored).  The Republicans may dump money into the district (though the late September Republican primary makes that harder). That said, the trends are in her favor - media there is cheap, and the infighting among Republicans is severe enough to make this a very winnable race.  Politics is all about risk, and winning open seats in districts like these offers the best opportunity Democrats have to pick up the House.  I am frankly shocked that Barend hasn't gotten more institutional support as of yet, but the buzz around her in New York is starting to get louder.  Getting in money for her race now is the key to having groups like Emily's List come in and take this seriously - especially 'internet' money which has a certain cache.

If you live in New York City, you can come to her fundraiser at Pioneer bar tonight (more details are here).

Otherwise, you can donate to her campaign through her web site.  I'll be blogging this race, so stay tuned.