MyDD :: Kerry Winning or Threatening Almost Everywhere

Kerry Winning or Threatening Almost Everywhere

by Chris Bowers, Wed May 26, 2004 at 12:00:10 PM EST

Think I'm nuts for guessing Kerry will win 420 electoral votes? Check out DC Political Report's standings.

Also, I've drawn a map!

Dark red is solid Kerry, light red is lean Kerry, light blue is lean Bush, dark blue is solid Bush.

(Yeah, I reversed the colors. Why do blueblood Republicans get to be red instead of public sector Democrats? This is how they should be.)

For those of you keeping score, which is probably most of you, this breaks down as follows:

		 Kerry	    Bush       
By more than 7	   245	     133  
By less than 7	    82         78
Total		   327	     211
FL, TN and WV are the three close ones right now.

Kerry is winning by 116 electoral votes. His "solid base" is almost twice as large as Bush's. Kerry is within three points of 343 electoral votes. He is within seven points of 405. Georgia, 15 electoral votes, is almost certainly the next state to go soft on Bush.

Right now, I project Kerry up by four points nationally. If he were to go up by eleven, he might very well be leading in 420 electoral votes worth of states. At the very least, it seems best to set our sites that high.

Update: Iowa has moved back to Kerry again. My insanity moves one step closer to becoming truth.

Update #2: Come for the political analysis, stay for my artwork.

Tags: General 2008 (all tags)

Permalink :: 41 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: Georgia (none / 0)

Although I admire the sentiment and think you are right on a number of points. I have to say that Kerry will not win Georgia. Even in the largest blowout, I just don't see it happening.

Keep up the good fight.

by dylanh on Wed May 26, 2004 at 12:12:37 PM EST

Historical Context (none / 0)

Even Reagan in 1980 only won by 9, which is the largest challenger margin since 1932. I think an 11 point Kerry win is highly unlikely, but I think something between 5-9 is getting more likely.

I agree with dylanh that Kerry is highly highly unlikely to win Georgia - but I'd love to be proven wrong!

by Anonymous Citizen on Wed May 26, 2004 at 12:23:43 PM EST

Blow Out (none / 0)

A Blow out will be 320EV. No chance Kerry gets over 400EV. No Democrat hasn't done that since FDR. Bush would have to do something criminal for Kerry to get over 400EV.

by Anonymous Citizen on Wed May 26, 2004 at 12:29:35 PM EST

Bush's Criminal Acts (5.00 / 2)

"Bush would have to do something criminal for Kerry to get over 400EV." Would you like the list in alphabetical or chronological order?

by Chris Bowers on Wed May 26, 2004 at 12:35:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The Bush Rove Criminal Conspiracy (none / 0)

Understanding the Bush Gangster occupation of the White House requires that we understand how they got there.

Years before a single vote was cast in 2000, George W Bush and Karl Rove put in motion a plan to steal the election.

The Florida Voter Purge was a Karl Rove scheme, and was put it motion no later than the Summer of 1998. It was first tried in Texas, in 1982. That plot was discovered and foiled, but it was far more successful the second time around.

While the Texas Blueprint for the Stolen Election is too obscure to bring down Bush Rove, it could help seal their fate -- especially if they threaten to drag the GOP down with them.

democrats.com/blueprint

by ck on Thu May 27, 2004 at 11:35:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Remember LBJ? (none / 0)

And how could we forget, with another Texan lying about war in the White House. Anyway 1964: LBJ-486 Ev's to Goldwater's 52.

Molly Bloom

by Anonymous Citizen on Wed May 26, 2004 at 10:36:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Georgia. (none / 0)

I had the often-times misfortune to live in Georgia for 6 years. If all the voters stayed home except for those in metro-Atlanta, Kerry might have a chance. But there is no way he wins that state.

by Anonymous Citizen on Wed May 26, 2004 at 02:00:13 PM EST

I'm missing something (none / 0)

OK, as I understand it, just the Gore states from 2000 are 260 EVs. This map shows Kerry picking up Ohio and New Hampshire, while losing Iowa. That'd be enough for a win, but how does that add up to 320 EVs? Are you including the "too close to call" green states, or am I missing something?

by kuff on Wed May 26, 2004 at 02:00:22 PM EST

Click te link to DC Politcal Report (none / 0)

Kerry has small leads in Missouri, Florida and Nevada as well. Plus, Bush has the smallest of leads in Tennessee, Arkansas, West Virginia, and many more.

by Chris Bowers on Wed May 26, 2004 at 11:03:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Crimes Of Dim Son (5.00 / 1)

Bush could hack Laura to death with a machete on prime time network television while screaming, "I live to fornicate with farm animals!" and Kerry still ain't going to win Georgia. The only reason Zell Miller was able to get elected senator is because Heinrich Himmler failed to meet eligibility requirements.

by Anonymous Citizen on Wed May 26, 2004 at 02:01:38 PM EST

Georgia (none / 0)

Clinton won Georgia twice.

by Matt Stoller on Wed May 26, 2004 at 04:24:54 PM EST

Clinton Won Georgia Twice (none / 0)

Clinton was a Southerner, not a Massachusetts (gasp!) liberal.

by Anonymous Citizen on Wed May 26, 2004 at 04:30:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

And... (none / 0)

And Georgia has been trending hard right ever since.

by Mr Moderate on Wed May 26, 2004 at 06:01:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

by Jerome Armstrong on Wed May 26, 2004 at 08:45:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Afraid Not (none / 0)

Clinton won Georgia in 1992 (and I was one of those votes), but lost Georgia in 1996 (I voted in California, that year)

Molly Bloom

by Anonymous Citizen on Wed May 26, 2004 at 10:33:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Oh, and to answer your question: (none / 0)

"Think I'm nuts for guessing Kerry will win 420 electoral votes?"

Yes, yes I do. I also think you have a fundamental lack of understanding regarding southern politics.

by Mr Moderate on Wed May 26, 2004 at 06:54:59 PM EST

Every southern State (none / 0)

Currently, Kerry is winning one of the seven southern states I predict he will win (Florida, which has been trending Democrat, and should turn to a partisan DNC advantage this time around). In two of the states, TN and AR, Bush is only up by 3 or less. Two have no polling information, but are only at 8.7 + GOP partisan and trending Dem (Virginia) and + 12 GOP partisan, although Clinton won it once (Georgia) among the most right wing Southern states. One shows Kerry within seven, and also happens to be the home state of the next vice-President. the other state in Louisiana, where Kerry's internal polling must tell him seomthing, because he is running ads there. Got more than cliches and simple dismissals?

by Chris Bowers on Wed May 26, 2004 at 11:09:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

All right. (none / 0)

"In two of the states, TN and AR, Bush is only up by 3 or less."

According to a Zogby internet poll. Another words, these polls are absolutely worthless. And since that map is based on the most recent polling, and since the most recent polling in just about every battleground state is that awful Zogby poll, that map is virtually meaningless. The last non-Zogby poll in those two states alone show Bush with a healthy lead. A similar pattern emerges with polling in virtually every other state but Iowa.

Further, you seem to be also relying on the faulty premise that if Kerry improves his poll numbers by five points nationwide, then his poll numbers will increase by five points in every state. This is clearly false.

Then, of course, your arguments are heavily laced with maybes and hypotheticals (Maybe Georgia is close! Kerry must know something in Louisiana! Edwards is gonna be the VP choice!). Yet your arguement that Kerry will win by a landslide is not qualified with a "maybe".

I have also noticed you backing off on your idea that Kerry might carry Alabama with the revelation that Bush is ahead by 19% in the state. Ditto with Kansas, where the latest poll has Bush expanding his lead to 18%. Bush is up by 21% in Indiana, another state you think could go for Kerry. The latest poll in Mississippi? Bush up by 31%. That's another state you were considering going to Kerry.

Your logic is faulty, your poll numbers are faulty, and you now seem to be insisting that I disprove something that you never proved yourself. Your analysis deserves a simple dismissal.

by Mr Moderate on Thu May 27, 2004 at 01:12:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]

The stuff about Alabama (none / 0)

Was always qualified with a maybe. Go back and read it again. Its the 420 that I made multiple claims about, both here and elsewhere.

1. Arkansas

Last four polls out of Arkansas:

49.3-44.5

45-45

47-45

50.9-42.5

What a blowout. If, as you claim, Zogby polls are meaningless, then the state is even closer than I thought, as Zogby gives him a 4.8% lead. I do not know why you make such a claim, however, since the most accurate pollster of all, Harris, works almsot exclusively over the internet.

Bush had a 47-46 job rating in Arkansas last October. He's got the state locked up. I'm sure that if Kerry goes up by more nationally, that none of those people will be from Arkansas.

2. Florida

No comment necessary. Obviously, a democrat can win here. Check out the long term voting trends:

1984 GOP +6.6, DNC -5.9

1988 GOP +7.5, DNC -7.0

1992 GOP +3.6, DNC -4.0

1996 GOP +1.5, DNC -1.2

2000 GOP +1.0, DNC +0.5 (DNC & Green -0.5)

Considering these voting trends, this state has all the potential to become part ofthe Democratic base.

3. Tennessee

Last four polls out of Tennessee:

49.3-46.8

52-41

48-44

47-43 (from Mason Dixon)

Which one is not like the other one? The blowout. Clearly, Kerry has no chance in a state where he is down by around three or four points five months from the election.

4. Virginia

No polling info from Virginia for some time now. However, here are the long term voting trends:

1984 GOP +4.5, DNC -3.5

1988 GOP +6.4, DNC -6.4

1992 GOP +7.6, DNC -2.4

1996 GOP +6.4, DNC -4.1

2000 GOP +4.7, DNC -3.9 (DNC & Green -4.4)

What a horribly trending state for Democrats. Surely, improving for three consecutive election cycles, in a state Bush won with 51% of the vote, during an election where Bush might get creamed--well, Dems have no chance at Virginia. what am I thinking?

5. North Carolina.

I submit this article into evidence. Further, as a recent poll notes (a Mason-dixon poll, no less), add Edwards, and NC is already a toss-up, no blow-out needed.

6. Louisiana

Not much polling out of here recently. Just one lone Republican poll that shows Bush well ahead. However, you might find this old poll interesting:

Multi-Quest International poll. Late Feb.-early March, 2003. N=586 registered voters statewide:

"If the next presidential election included Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican George Bush, for which candidate would you vote?"

Bush: 49

Hillary Clinton: 42

(from the subcriber section of polling report).

The ever hated Hillary within 7 points of Bush at a time when he was crushing unnamed Democrats by double-digits. There are also these voting trends:

1984 GOP +2.0, DNC -2.4

1988 GOP +0.9, DNC -1.5

1992 GOP +3.6, DNC +2.6

1996 GOP -0.8, DNC +2.8

2000 GOP +4.6, DNC -3.5 (DNC & Green -6.0)

Clearly trending Democratic until 2000. It is entirely possible that 2000 is a fluke, and largely the result of good targeting by Bush (or poor targeting by Gore since he pulled out of there early). Even if not, its still only GOP +8.1, which can definately be overcome in a large enough landslide.

Further, its not just that Kerry is running ads there, but that Bush countered. Both sides seem to find the state competitive.

7. Georgia

Clearly, the biggest stretch of the seven southern states I believe Kerry will win. A hefty 12 point GOP partisan index, and absolutely no polling in the state at all.

I can't back up this state as much as the other six, but it is next in line on the chopping block as Kerry's lead gets bigger.

Also, the African-American population in Georgia is increasing at a rapid rate, especially around the Atlanta area. Many African-Americans are moving South again, which in the long term might make the region truly swing once again. In a blowout in 2004, it might tip the balance in Kerry's favor.

Finally, while you dismiss the notion that Kerry's national increses do not result in increases everywhere, I submit as counter-evidence that as Kerry has risen over the pst three or four weeks he has, well, risen just about in every state over the last four weeks as well. If Kerry wins by 14 points, its not going to be because of New York, which already voted 2-1 against Bush in a toss-up nationwide election. Those votes will almost have to come from areas outside of Kerry's base.

by Chris Bowers on Thu May 27, 2004 at 02:36:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Mr. Moderate (none / 0)

Exactly right, or - to be precise - exactly right wing. The upcoming GOP campaign will portray Kerry as a tree hugging, fag hagging, Castro kissing, Fonda loving, brie eating French frog fairy. Never mind that Kerry is a war hero and Bush can't even ride a bike; the pitch to Bubba is going to be that Kerry wants to steal your guns and have your daughters marry "swarthy" people. Same old transparently dishonest Republican approach that traditionally plays quite well in the South. In Dixie, voting against your own economic self-interest is not just a hobby...it's a way of life.

by Anonymous Citizen on Wed May 26, 2004 at 07:09:07 PM EST

Memo to Kerry (none / 0)

Puh-leeze write off the South and concentrate on New Hampshire, Wisconsin, West Virginia, New Mexico, Nevada, Oregon, Missouri, et al. You don't need the South/you won't win the South so keep your eyes on the prize and win the presidency. I am looking forward to four years of nation-building here at home.

by Anonymous Citizen on Wed May 26, 2004 at 07:25:02 PM EST

Yes you are NUTS (none / 0)

In 2002 you said Dems will regain the house and hold onto to the senate.

Your predictions are WORTHLESS !

by Anonymous Citizen on Wed May 26, 2004 at 07:48:08 PM EST

That wasn't me (none / 0)

You might note that there are two authors on this site. I was neither of them in 2002.

by Chris Bowers on Wed May 26, 2004 at 11:09:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Proof you are nuts (none / 0)

12. ASK ONLY IF VOTING FOR BUSH OR KERRY:
Overall, would you say you are voting more for (CANDIDATE CHOSEN) or against (CANDIDATE NOT CHOSEN)?

Kerry Bush
For 32% 73%
Against 68% 27%
100% 100%

by Anonymous Citizen on Wed May 26, 2004 at 07:51:07 PM EST

Preceding Two Posts (none / 0)

Since these fuming posts seem to be the product of excessive alcohol intake, I'm guessing the poster is probably Barbara, but I also acknowledge it could be Jenna.

by Anonymous Citizen on Wed May 26, 2004 at 08:44:48 PM EST

You are NUTS (none / 0)

Proof Zogby Polls are worthless.

Zogby had Bush ahead in IA by 5%

---

IOWA
Kerry 48%
Bush 43%
Moe 4%

Reg Voter

by Anonymous Citizen on Wed May 26, 2004 at 09:24:04 PM EST

IWOA (none / 0)

Proof Zogby Polls are worthless.

Zogby had Bush ahead in IA.

---

IOWA
Kerry 48%
Bush 43%
MoE4%
(LV)

W/Nader
Kerry 46
Bush 42%
Nader 3%
KCCI poll by Research 2000
May 23-25

by Anonymous Citizen on Wed May 26, 2004 at 09:43:38 PM EST

The new drunken, repetitive trolls (none / 0)

Are making me consider forcing people to sign in when they post.

by Chris Bowers on Wed May 26, 2004 at 11:11:15 PM EST

I continue to be unconvinced about the landslide (none / 0)

        Kerry    Bush
By 8 or more    188    133
By 3 to 7        112    62
By less than 3    27    16
Total        327    211
FL, TN and WV are the three close ones right now.

Kerry is winning by 116 electoral votes. His "solid base" is 50% larger than Bush's, and his "lean" base is almost twice as large as Bush's. Kerry is within three points of 343 electoral votes. He is within seven points of 405. Georgia, 15 electoral votes, is almost certainly the next state to go soft on Bush.

Florida is still pretty tight right now, but I'm on the verge of putting it in Kerry's column, but there's really no evidence of slippage in Tennessee and West Virginia:

?>G Tennessee (11) - was GOP by 3.86% \ Zogby 2/26 EV in play \ MiddleTNStateU 2/28 K44-B48 moe3.7 \ Cook 3/2: probable GOP \ Survey USA 3/22 K41-B52 moe3.9 \ Bowers 5/7 lean GOP, slide GOP \ Gersh 5/7 LEAN GOP \ Zogby 5/24 K46.8-B49.3-N0.6 moe3 (B+2.5in) \

?>G West Virginia (5) - was GOP by 6.32% \ Zogby 2/26 EV in play \ Cook 3/2: lean GOP \ ARG 3/24 K46-B46-N2 moe4 \ Rasmussen 4/15 K41-B46 moe4.5 \ Ipsos 4/29 K45-B49-N3 moe3 \ Bowers 5/7 lean GOP. slide GOP \ Gersh 5/7 BGROUND \ Zogby 5/24 K45.9-B48.3-N2 moe4.4 (B+2.4in) \

I mean, Kerry has yet to have any kind of a lead in either state, so I think they have to be put into Bush's column unless something develops.

Accepting your other figures, that give Kerry 327+27=354 and Bush 211+5+11=227. That's still a Kerry win, but a far cry from a 420-vote landslide.

Color me continuing to me skeptical.

unfutz

by Ed Fitzgerald on Thu May 27, 2004 at 02:10:24 AM EST

Ooops. (none / 0)

Sorry, screwed up on that last post (one too many Long Island Ice Teas after rehearsal tonight), I see now that your figures already include Florida, West Virginia and Tennessee. Oops.

But, look, the overall point is still valid, 327 is still a far cry from 420, and I just don't see a lot of other states that have been classed as "safe" for Bush softening enough to switch over to Kerry. If I see some evidence for it, in the form of poll results, maybe I'll think differently, but until then I'm sticking with my more (sorry) conservative estimate, which is currently:

DEM: ME-4, MI-17, MN-10, NH-4, OH-20, OR-7, PA-21, WA-11, WA-10
(104 swing + 168 safe = 272)

GOP: AZ-10, AR-6, CO-9, LA-9, NV-5, TN-11, VA-13, WV-5
(68 swing + 148 safe = 216)

IN PLAY: FL-27, IA-7, MO-11, NM-5 (50)

DEM 272 / GOP 216 / PLAY 50

unfutz

by Ed Fitzgerald on Thu May 27, 2004 at 02:24:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]

cbs (none / 0)

CBS News Poll

Kerry 49%
Bush 41%
MoE 3% (RV)

kerry/McCain 53%
Bush/Cheney 39%
MoE 3% (RV)

by Anonymous Citizen on Thu May 27, 2004 at 02:21:38 AM EST

I believe (none / 0)

Kerry has a legitimate shot at North Carolina (if Edwards is his running mate)and/or Arkansas and/or Louisiana. (Listed in most likely order). Other than those, I predict Bush runs the table in the south.

NOTE: I do not consider Florida "the South". The state make-up is widely dissimilar to NC, SC, Georgia, Alabama, and the like.

But it puts me in a good mood to see PA and MI in your "strong Kerry" column. With those and FL, we win. I don't care by how much. Only that we get rid of Bush.

by CoolHandLuc on Thu May 27, 2004 at 03:36:37 AM EST

Red Republicans (none / 0)

Could using red for Republicans have anything to do with the Nancy Regan red dress thing? Remember how women in congress started wearing red dresses because Nancy liked to wear red dresses? Reporters too. Regan would call on them if they wore red.

by mpower1952 on Thu May 27, 2004 at 03:54:27 AM EST

Red vs Blue (none / 0)

Frankly, I like the fact the Republicans are Red. As a retired Air Force officer when we had military exercises the Blue Team was always America, the Red Team was always the enemy. So for me, the current configuration is apropos. Of course, it wasn't always so. There used to be a moderate and liberal wing of the Republican party, may it be so again.

by Anonymous Citizen on Thu May 27, 2004 at 08:50:19 AM EST

Red vs. Blue (none / 0)

There is no reasoning behind Red = GOP and Blue = Democrat aside from that's just the way the media decided to assign the colors in 2000. That's not the way it's always been, either -- the GOP has been blue in previous elections, while the Dems were red.

It's meaningless and arbitrary.

by Anonymous Citizen on Thu May 27, 2004 at 12:31:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Is this post a joke? (none / 0)

Kos jumped the shark on Southern politics a long time ago. You are hot on his heels.

There is no way Georgia's EVs will go to Kerry. Why can't you and other progressive bloggers just accept that?

Instead you keep regurgitating these totally academic demographic statistics that don't apply to voting patterns, and call those who disagree -- WHO ACTUALLY LIVE DOWN HERE -- trolls.

The bad thing about all your wildly overblown EV projections is some people here will actually believe them, and possibly not vote or get others to vote.

by Anonymous Citizen on Thu May 27, 2004 at 10:15:38 AM EST

You seem to be mistaken... (none / 0)

They weren't calling them trolls just because they live in the south.

They were, however, calling southerners too stupid to vote 'correctly' by ignoring their obvious compatibility with Bush on virtually every issue. Ah-hyuck.

by Anonymous Citizen on Thu May 27, 2004 at 12:59:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Dude... (none / 0)

That doesn't even make sense.

by Anonymous Citizen on Thu May 27, 2004 at 01:39:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Red States (none / 0)

The Republicans are red because, whenever they seize power, the world is soon bleeding profusely. The Democrats are blue because, unfortunately, being a Democrat tends to be quite depressing. John McCain has a lifetime rating of 84% from the American Conservative Union. He is anti-choice and pro right-to-work. If you think Kerry can win without female and union support, then McCain is the ideal veep.

by Anonymous Citizen on Thu May 27, 2004 at 12:36:23 PM EST

Hope You're Right (none / 0)

Short of getting a booty call from Heidi Klum, nothing would please me more than for Bush to lose in an historic landslide.

by Anonymous Citizen on Thu May 27, 2004 at 12:48:05 PM EST

Kerry's Vp pick (none / 0)

Well I think he should chosee edwards, he'd get NC!

by Anonymous Citizen on Tue Jun 29, 2004 at 10:01:22 PM EST

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