MyDD :: TX 19th poll update

TX 19th poll update

by Jerome Armstrong, Wed Apr 28, 2004 at 04:28:38 PM EST

There are 5 competitive seats in Texas, where incumbent Democrats are slight underdogs against the demographics and district makeup forces. The 19th, one of two of the Texas contests that pits incumbents against eachother, is probably the toughest of the five, so this comes as a bit of good news for the Dems:

TX 19 Stenholm (D) 48% Neugebauer (R) 44% Undec. 8

The poll, done by the Democratic firm Decision Research was conducted 4/5-8 for Rep. Charlie Stenholm (D-17); surveyed 800 likely voters; margin of error +/- 3.5 percent. This would be a tough district for any Dem to win, Odessa, Midland, Lubbock, whew:

(click on image to enlarge map)

In the Presidential matchup for Texas, Bush is beating the snot out of Kerry, by a 67-28 percent margin. By way of contrast, poll done 3/29 - 4/5 by the University of Massachusetts, found Kerry leading Bush by a 54-32 percent margin.

On the race in the 6th CD, Atrios has a guest post from Morris Meyer. It's a longshot, but the guy has embraced the blogs; and we give back.

Tags: House 2006 (all tags)

Permalink :: 11 Comments :: Post a Comment

Old map (none / 0)

Jerome,

You're displaying the old CD19 in your map. One of the things Tom Craddick insisted on last year was a separate district for Midland - that's the new CD11, which will be won by Bush crony Mike Conway.

You can find the old and new maps here. It's still very strongly red, so if this poll is accurate, it's great news for Stenholm. There was a much earlier poll which had shown Neugebauer up by something like 47-39.

by kuff on Wed Apr 28, 2004 at 06:07:47 PM EST

Here's the earlier poll (none / 0)

link

The number was 49-38 Neugebauer in February. I don't offhand know if this was a partisan poll.

by kuff on Wed Apr 28, 2004 at 06:12:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

yea, that's right (none / 0)

This is the old map, some changes have been made. There was an earlier partisan poll done by POS, showing Neugebauer up 47-38 over Stenholm, so it's likely about tied. There was something written up by NJ a few days ago that got me to liking the fellow Swede:

Rep. Charles Stenholm (D) has always tried "to foster bipartisanship" in
the House, but while he has reached out "to GOP colleagues," the
"Republican party has never stopped trying to knock him off." The
moderate Dem. is facing yet another challenge from the GOP this year, who
believe they have "their best chance yet" to "oust Stenholm." The "recent
redistricting by Texas' Legislature" has placed Stenholm in a face-off
with freshman Rep. Randy Neugebauer (R) "in a redrawn district that
contains even more Republican territory than it has in the past."
Stenholm: "This time around, they decided that they couldn't beat me at
the ballot box, so they changed the lines." He "places the blame squarely
on the shoulders of House Majority Leader Tom DeLay (R)," both for "the
redistricting effort" and "a lack of comity in the House." "Stenholm said
he remains confident about the race," but knows he is in for a fight. He
and "five other Texas Democrats are launching a joint fund-raising effort
to help their campaigns." Stenholm "admitted he has though about chucking
it all and going back to Texas." But the GOP "got on the fighting side of
this Swede this time. To walk away and let them win without a fight -- I
couldn't live with myself" (Baumann, National Journal, 4/22).

by Jerome Armstrong on Wed Apr 28, 2004 at 06:41:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

state-wide poll? (none / 0)

are those tough Bush-Kerry numbers actually state-wide? Since the poll was for Stenholm, I'm hoping that's just this district. If so, then comparing it to the UMass poll might not work. If it is, then....EGAD! 67-28!

by DonBinTN on Wed Apr 28, 2004 at 07:29:29 PM EST

GET REAL (none / 0)

DEMO POLLS ARE GARABAGE !

Keep living on your fantasy, like you did MYDD in 2002.

2002 Dems polls sucked ! IF you folks belief this Dem poll, then you all need a SHRINK .

Here is a GOP poll.

House 19th Neugebauer 49% Stenholm 38%
Atleast GOP polls are less FRAUD THEN DEMS

by Anonymous Citizen on Wed Apr 28, 2004 at 08:10:46 PM EST

Open your minds (none / 0)

WORD to the wise.

Unlike you folks who only see things through your own prism. I keep a open mind and that's why I on this very site I was one the person who predicted the races 100% correct in 2002.

Unlike you mydd and other fantasy Dems here , I had predicted the folllowing results for 2002.

House: 229R 205 D 1 Indpt
Senate 51R-48D-1
Gov 26R-23D-1

Also, reelections are never close, stop listening to each other.
Either Bush will win by atleast 5% or Kerry by 5%.
2004 will not be 2000.

Finally , GOP polls are not great but Dem polls are the most bias and they basically suck.

by Anonymous Citizen on Wed Apr 28, 2004 at 08:53:11 PM EST

really? (none / 0)

Unlike you mydd and other fantasy Dems here , I had predicted the folllowing results for 2002.

There was no "Anonymous Hero" here in 2002, you must be daydreaming.

by Jerome Armstrong on Wed Apr 28, 2004 at 09:10:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I'm confused (none / 0)

What is the UMass poll (late March-early April, Kerry 54-32) a poll of? Texas? No way. Massachusetts? Maybe. Help!

by Anonymous Citizen on Wed Apr 28, 2004 at 09:47:31 PM EST

Yes, Mass (none / 0)

Kerry's home digs.

by Jerome Armstrong on Wed Apr 28, 2004 at 10:32:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

My DD (none / 0)

There was no "Anonymous Hero" here in 2002, you must be daydreaming.
---------------

I used a different name then, but now I know this site is worthless, since you MYDD bragged about
how dems will win in 2002.

I know my record in calling races, if you don't want to belief me and wanna live in you fantasy land, then do so.

by Anonymous Citizen on Thu Apr 29, 2004 at 12:43:55 AM EST

Give me a break (none / 0)

Yeah, I always trust political predictions by people with no web page and who don't sign their name. Anonymous Winger Hero needs to provide a hotlink to his brilliant 2002 predictions or should STFU.

The missing 8-10% of Kerry voters in Massachusetts are the far lefties who are for Nader. Note Bush does about the same in MA as Kerry does in TX- 30%, plus or minus. You don't provide the MOE for these polls, but if it is 3-4%, let's call the results the same.

There is no far right candidate in Texas to draw off Bush voters. Keep in mind Gore wrecked Bush in NY and MA with over 60% of the vote AND Nader at 5%. I expect similar results this year.

Over 50% when your opponent is under 35% is nothing to sneeze at. Bush can win Texas with 100% of the vote for all I care- he yields no extra Electoral Votes.

In fact, polls of late seem to indicate this phenomenon- Bush is racking up huge margins in states he will win anyway (TX, SC, UT, ID, etc.), is struggling or tied in swing states (PA, OH, NH, etc.) , and is far behind in likely or certain Democratic states (NY, MA, CA). Almost all of Bush's national poll growth comes from increasing margins in comfortable Bush states.

This trend is good for Democrats.

by Anonymous Citizen on Thu Apr 29, 2004 at 09:51:45 AM EST

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