MyDD :: Early Conclusion: too early to tell

Early Conclusion: too early to tell

by Jerome Armstrong, Fri Apr 16, 2004 at 07:27:01 PM EST

Polling since the beginning of 2004, from The Hotline.

(++) indicates a lead outside the poll's margin of error; (+) means a lead within the margin. States that are in italics are states where polls indicate a flip from a red state to a blue state (or vice versa) based on 2000 results; in the future, new polls added since the last scoreboard will be in bold. Note: Polls marked with an * include Ralph Nader in the horserace.

ELECTORAL COLLEGE TOTALS: (270 needed to win)
          LEADS OUTSIDE MoE                 ALL LEADS
           STATES    EVs                  STATES    EVs
Kerry         7     123        Kerry       13       204
Bush          8      86        Bush        16       195

STATE    BUSH  KERRY  POLL                        DATE     MoE
      (+ indicates lead inside the MoE, ++ a lead outside)
AL (9)  ++59%   27%   USA Polling Group          3/15-18  +/-5%
CA (55)   41  ++53    Field Poll                 2/18-22  +/-3%
          40  ++53    Los Angeles Times          2/18-22  +/-3
CO (9)   +49    40    Pub. Opinion Strategies(R) 3/31-4/1 +/-4.9
CT (7)    39  ++52    *UConn                     3/25-28  +/-4
FL (27)  +51    43    Mason-Dixon                3/30-4/1 +/-4
IA (7)    42   +49    Register/Selzer & Co.      2/7-11   +/-3.8
IL (21)   39   +47    *Mason-Dixon               3/1-3    +/-4
IN (11) ++52    37    Bellwether Research (R)    2/22-24  +/-4
KY (8)  ++55    38    Louisville Courier-Journal 1/30-2/4 +/-4
LA (9)  ++52    38    *SMOR                      3/17-18  +/-3.7
MA (12)   28  ++59    *RKM Research and Comm.    2/27-28  +/-4.9
MD (10)   43   +48    *Gonzales Research         3/19-24  +/-3.5
ME (4)    38  ++51    *Strategic Marketing Svcs. 2/28-3/3 +/-5
MI (17)   45   +47    EPIC/MRA                   3/28-4/1 +/-4
MN (10)   38  ++50    *Market Solutions Group    3/28-31  +/-4.1
MO (11)   46   +49    Decision Research (D)      2/14-19  +/-3.5
NH (4)   +48    45    American Research Group    3/30-4/1 +/-4
NJ (15)   47   +48    Fairleigh Dickinson Univ.  4/3-10   +/-3.5
NM (5)    47    47    American Research Group    3/30-4/1 +/-4
NY (31)   36  ++53    Quinnipiac                 4/5-12   +/-2.7
NV (5)  ++49    38    Mason-Dixon                3/15-17  +/-4
OH (20)  +46    45    Columbus Dispatch          3/23-31  +/-2
OK (7)  ++47    35    *Insider Advantage         3/31-4/1 +/-5
OR (7)   +43    41    Univ. of OR                3/19-4/7 +/-4.9
PA (21)  +46   +40    *Franklin & Marshall       3/25-29  +/-4.1
RI (4)    31  ++53    Brown Univ.                2/7-9    +/-4.6
SD (3)  ++50    39    Mason-Dixon                2/5-7    +/-3.5
TN (11)  +48    44    Middle TN State Univ.      2/16-28  +/-3.7
TX (34) ++54    36    Scripps Howard TX Poll     2/12-3/3 +/-3.7
WV (5)    46    46    *American Research Group   3/23-24  +/-4
WI (10)  +49    45    Univ. of WI Survey Center  3/23-31  +/-4

States not listed: AK (3), AR (6), AZ (10), DC (3), DE (3), GA (15), 
HI (4), ID (4), KS (6), MS (6), MT (3), NE (5), NC (15), ND (3), 
OR (7), SC (8), UT (5), VA (13), VT (3), WA (11), WY (3).

Tags: General 2008 (all tags)

Permalink :: 6 Comments :: Post a Comment

Another Tally (4.00 / 1)

Adding "States not listed", and assigning their electoral votes based on year 2000, gives:

additional 105 votes for Bush
additional 31 votes for Kerry

Total, including "All Leads" is:
Bush: 300
Kerry: 235

A flip of Ohio and Pennsylvania from Bush to Kerry yields:
Bush: 259
Kerry: 276

by Anonymous Citizen on Sat Apr 17, 2004 at 12:09:50 AM EST

OR (none / 0)

Not quite... OR is listed in both places, so remove 7 from Kerry.

by Anonymous Citizen on Sat Apr 17, 2004 at 02:43:58 AM EST

Arizona (none / 0)

Arizona has been polled in 2004 so I am not sure why it is not included in the main table. One poll was done in Feb for KAET-TV, local PBS, by Bruce Merrill, professor at ASU, showing Kerry 46, Bush 44, Und 10. I posted this at dKos:
http://phalanges.dailykos.com/
I think there was another poll done in March by someone else showing Bush ahead. (SurveyUSA 3/19, Bush: 51, Kerry: 42)

by phalanges on Sat Apr 17, 2004 at 01:13:04 PM EST

Best Polling Tracker Yet (none / 0)

So much data on Electoral Votes, lots of ways to look at it:

http://2.004k.com/

by Anonymous Citizen on Sun Apr 18, 2004 at 03:37:20 PM EST

A Perspective On Recent Florida Polling (none / 0)

The above-described Mason Dixon poll that has Bush ahead +51 to 43 (March 30 through April 1) needs to be considered in light of a similar Mason-Dixon poll conducted in November 2003 that found that Bush led Kerry by a margin of 57-34, with 9 percent undecided. By the Mason Dixon methodology, then, Kerry has made substantial inroads.

More importantly, two early March polls actually showed Kerry ahead: one, conducted by American Research Group showed Kerry with a 45-44 lead over Bush, and a second conducted by conducted by Schroth & Associates and the Polling Company had Kerry leading over Bush 49-43. (Both polls measured a three-way race that included Independent candidate Ralph Nader).

An April 7 AP review of the three recent polls concludes that "[R]esident Bush has pulled slightly ahead of Democrat John Kerry in Florida after several weeks of a withering blitz of political advertising, according to a poll released Tuesday [the March 30 through April 1 Mason Dixon poll]." However, as the AP story explained

Two polls conducted in early March suggested the race is close in Florida, which was virtually tied in 2000 and was finally awarded to Bush after a U.S. Supreme Court decision.
The Bush advantage may be due to heavy advertising by the president's re-election campaign in Florida.
Since early March, Bush has spent about $6 million on TV ads in Florida, compared with about $1 million for Kerry in the state. Democratic-leaning interest groups have spent another $2 million on anti-Bush ads in the state.

Bottom line: it is dead even here in the Sunshine State.

by Florida Politics on Sun Apr 18, 2004 at 06:43:12 PM EST

Thanks (none / 0)

Thanks for the good info.

Mer
(editor of onbackground.blogspot.com)

by Anonymous Citizen on Mon Apr 19, 2004 at 11:11:07 AM EST

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