Evolving Party Identification

Last month the National Annenberg Election Survey published the complete partisan self-identification data they collected over thirteen months from early October 2003 until Election Day. Considering the size of the survey, 67,777 registered voters, the trend among almost every single demographic can be measured with a fair degree of accuracy. Overall, Republicans reduced the Democratic advantage from 3.8 in 2000 to 2.8 in 2004, a worrying sign but not really that surprising considering Election results. Where the shifts occurred is important and enlightening:
Democratic Margin, White Born-Again / Evangelical Protestants
	2000   2004  Shift
Women	-12    -22    -10
Men	-22    -29     -7
This was the largest Republican gain by far. Considering this, I think these voters really were the top reason for Bush's victory. Further, that the largest Republican gain occurred within a group that already was heavily Republican should be enlightening to Democrats. They did not find more voters by becoming more like us, but by increasing their share among what was already their base.
Democratic Margin, Age and Gender
	     2000   2004  Shift
Women 18-29    +9    +15     +6
Men   18-29    -8     -3     +4
Women 30-44    +8     +4     -4
Men   30-44    -9    -11     -2
Women 45-64   +14    +11     -3
Men   45-64    -1     -3     -2
Women 65+     +13    +10     -3
Men   65+      +2     +1     -1
Democrats lost ground among every single age and gender group above the age of 29, and consistently suffered greater losses among older women than among older men. Massive Democratic gains among the young were not enough to offset these losses.
Democratic Margin, Region
	   2000   2004	 Shift
Northeast   +9	   +10	   +1
South	    +4	    -1	   -5
Midwest     +1	    +2	   +1
West	     0	     0	    0
Democrats experienced small but noticeable gains outside of the South, but lost significant ground inside the South. Where have I seen that before?
Democratic Margin, Ethnicity and Gender
	     2000   2004   Shift
White Women    +2     -1     -3
White Men     -11    -13     -2
Black Women   +67    +71     +4
Black Men     +56    +54     -2
Latino Women  +29    +29      0
Latino Men    +20    +13     -7
Asians	      +16    +12     -4
Native Am     +13    +14      0
Republican gains among Latinos are entirely among men. The Asian Republican shift contradicts information from other, less comprehensive studies.
Democratic Margin, Location
	   2000   2004	 Shift
Urban	    +15    +16	   +1
Suburban     -1     -2	   -1
Rural	     +1     -2	   -3
This supports what Ben P argued in the past. Republicans won 2004 not by increasing their support in cities, but by increasing their support in Suburban and rural areas.
Union Members
	2000   2004  Shift
Women	+24    +27    +3
Men	+10    +14    +4
Declining membership within unions is at least as big a problem for Democratic candidates as problems "national security" cred. If union membership were growing in this country, it would be a force very difficult for conservatives to offset.

The study has even more information that what I have posted here, so be sure to check it out.



Display:


Growing the base (none / 0)

First of all, excellent post once again.

As you noted, Republicans won largely by squeezing out more votes from their base.

Women clearly represent a strong part of the Democratic base.  I've argued in the past, and I intend to continue, that appealing to women's rights issues is a key to our success.

I cringe when I see our side championing "abortion."  We should be championing "reproductive rights."  And when we do, it should be under the umbrella of women's rights. They may just be words, but the framing is important.  Those who oppose abortion oppose reproductive rights.  Those who oppose reproductive rights oppose women's rights.  Framed that way, it is not an easy thing to have to defend.

I have a decent bit more to say on that, but the more I say the further off topic I go.  These numbers seem to confirm the importance of growing our base, and clearly women play a large role.  We'll not only increase our support among women in general, we'll also likely reverse the trend in sub groups where we've been losing ground.

It Affects You -- Ross
by up2date on Thu Dec 09, 2004 at 03:48:50 PM EST

Didn't You Get From's memo? (none / 0)

We have to adapt our policies and message to better approximate that of the right wing.

Capitulation, to recapture the "vital center."

As if we did not fucking win the independents last month and STILL lose.

by Pachacutec on Thu Dec 09, 2004 at 05:14:05 PM EST

It's all about the Latino vote (none / 0)

Electoral strength is leaving the North, Old South, and Great Plains, and shifting to the Southwest and Southeast.

California, Arizona, Texas, Colorado, Florida, and Georgia will become/grow into larger electoral powerhouses.

And the Latino vote will make or break us.

by Skaje on Thu Dec 09, 2004 at 05:20:09 PM EST

Brown-nosing comments only welcome (none / 0)

Cris,

If you really want to do scholarly work of value do not attempt to combine what you think you surmise from the 2004 national election, with what you think you know about movement in American culture with what you can point to in a statistical survey from another source.

That will lead you down a blind alley and makes you one more voice leading people astray from ever being able to think and act independently about their ethical and political life.

You need to stand back and think about what you are doing.

Is it moral to kill 100,000 Iraqi and hide that truth from the American people about what is being done in their name? Is "Democracy is on the March" as GW Bush would say.

Is it moral, is it really helpful to buy into the propaganda which they use to support their immoral actions?

I believe there is a greater moral truth and value  and perspective which comes from the left, but your work is becoming a tool for the misinformation coming from the right.

You asked us in a poll, do we want to see more coverage of the stolen election?

Even your sycophants could not save that one for you, the answer was yes.

And I would bet if you could put a similar poll to the type of people who would support this site, they would say they want the work on this site to be independent of what they know IS a constant stream of propaganda coming from the corporate media about our moral and ethical culture, as much as they have already made themselves clear to you about how they feel about the stolen electionS.

The study you site is tainted by the stream of right leaning propaganda many people have been subject to. Don't validate its erronious conclusions by combining it with other invalid data and misinformation from our oppositions propagandists.

Your further mistake is to attempt to combine this misleading polling data with what you think you know about the 2004 election and what you think you know about the trends for morality as it is represented in the mass media.

by leschwartz on Thu Dec 09, 2004 at 05:28:50 PM EST

Statistics (none / 0)

The numbers clearly show the youngest of the voting population is easily fooled.  But once they go around the block several times, they see through the lefts half truths and distotions.  You must become better liars. Like Clinton!
by Robert A August on Fri Dec 10, 2004 at 02:58:22 PM EST

Republicans as truth tellers (none / 0)

Heh.  That's the funniest thing I've heard all day.
by Geotpf on Fri Dec 10, 2004 at 04:43:25 PM EST
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