Democratic Margin, White Born-Again / Evangelical Protestants 2000 2004 Shift Women -12 -22 -10 Men -22 -29 -7This was the largest Republican gain by far. Considering this, I think these voters really were the top reason for Bush's victory. Further, that the largest Republican gain occurred within a group that already was heavily Republican should be enlightening to Democrats. They did not find more voters by becoming more like us, but by increasing their share among what was already their base.
Democratic Margin, Age and Gender 2000 2004 Shift Women 18-29 +9 +15 +6 Men 18-29 -8 -3 +4 Women 30-44 +8 +4 -4 Men 30-44 -9 -11 -2 Women 45-64 +14 +11 -3 Men 45-64 -1 -3 -2 Women 65+ +13 +10 -3 Men 65+ +2 +1 -1Democrats lost ground among every single age and gender group above the age of 29, and consistently suffered greater losses among older women than among older men. Massive Democratic gains among the young were not enough to offset these losses.
Democratic Margin, Region 2000 2004 Shift Northeast +9 +10 +1 South +4 -1 -5 Midwest +1 +2 +1 West 0 0 0Democrats experienced small but noticeable gains outside of the South, but lost significant ground inside the South. Where have I seen that before?
Democratic Margin, Ethnicity and Gender 2000 2004 Shift White Women +2 -1 -3 White Men -11 -13 -2 Black Women +67 +71 +4 Black Men +56 +54 -2 Latino Women +29 +29 0 Latino Men +20 +13 -7 Asians +16 +12 -4 Native Am +13 +14 0Republican gains among Latinos are entirely among men. The Asian Republican shift contradicts information from other, less comprehensive studies.
Democratic Margin, Location 2000 2004 Shift Urban +15 +16 +1 Suburban -1 -2 -1 Rural +1 -2 -3This supports what Ben P argued in the past. Republicans won 2004 not by increasing their support in cities, but by increasing their support in Suburban and rural areas.
Union Members 2000 2004 Shift Women +24 +27 +3 Men +10 +14 +4Declining membership within unions is at least as big a problem for Democratic candidates as problems "national security" cred. If union membership were growing in this country, it would be a force very difficult for conservatives to offset.
The study has even more information that what I have posted here, so be sure to check it out.
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