Popular Vote Margin Narrowing

Kerry is now down by 2.48% in the still unofficial popular vote margin, and Bush's overall lead has shrunk to almost exactly 3M. This has led to some changes in the partisan index for 2004, most notably Nevada switching from +0.1 Dem to +0.1 Rep.

More than 60M people did not vote for Bush.



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Time to Move On and Get Back to Our Noble Causes (1.00 / 0)

It's time to move past contesting the election count,and move on with the noble Democratic tasks of championing the hungry and homeless, securing our faltering educational system, securing healthcare for the 45 million American children and adults with none, bringing our brave soldiers home from an immoral war and fighting to preserve our God-given environment. Time to accept the results of the democratic election, and stop our narcissistic moaning and groaning. I write about this in detail at http://HeartSoulandHumor.blogspot.com
by Debi White on Wed Dec 08, 2004 at 03:20:54 PM EST

Re: Time to Move On and Get Back to (none / 0)

It's also time to have a serious discussion about the ethics involved in not paying the people running this site advertising dollars when one chooses to advertise their own BLOG.  You can read about it in http://Bloodsuckingblogleeches.cheapskates.com
by yitbos96bb on Wed Dec 08, 2004 at 09:59:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I hate it... (3.00 / 0)

...when people presume to tell me that it "is time" to do something. Go promote your blogspot elsewhere, Debi White. If we can't count the votes, none of that bigthink matters much.
by ectn on Wed Dec 08, 2004 at 03:55:19 PM EST

"mandate" (none / 0)

That "mandate" just keeps getting thinner and thinner, doesn't it?

Weird that the US Election Atlas site reverses the traditonal "red for GOP" and "blue for Dem" colors. That threw me at first.

If you're always playing the fear card, it's a pretty good sign you're not playing with a full deck!
by Mathwiz on Wed Dec 08, 2004 at 04:53:35 PM EST

Re: "mandate" (none / 0)

it's not really traditional. just whatever the media decides to use that year. I'm pretty sure in 2000 it was red for Gore and blue for Bush.
by johnny longtorso on Wed Dec 08, 2004 at 05:41:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: "mandate" (none / 0)

Red was Republican in 2000. I don't know about '96, so it may be a rather short "tradition," but somehow it makes sense. Red signifies anger, dark blue signifies calm. That seems to sum up the parties pretty well these days.

Maybe if Dean had won the nomination the media would have switched the colors ;-)

If you're always playing the fear card, it's a pretty good sign you're not playing with a full deck!
by Mathwiz on Wed Dec 08, 2004 at 05:55:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: "mandate" (none / 0)

I don't know about you but I am still pretty pissed.  Maybe Red represents screwing 99% of the country and Blue represents anger over this happening?
by yitbos96bb on Wed Dec 08, 2004 at 10:02:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: "mandate" (none / 0)

The red and blue had switched back and forth between the parties.  It was only after 2000 when they became set in stone by the "red state" - "blue state" divide that everyone started talking about.
by CA Pol Junkie on Wed Dec 08, 2004 at 06:00:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: "mandate" (none / 0)

Kevin Drum wrote about this.  Apparently, the color of the incumbent party alternates every four years.
http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2004_11/005157.php
by tothestars on Wed Dec 08, 2004 at 09:52:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Ohio (none / 0)

http://www.commondreams.org/views04/1207-36.htm

A piece on Kerry's decision to concede by John McArthur, Publisher of Harper's...

by global yokel on Wed Dec 08, 2004 at 05:30:12 PM EST

still not sure I follow (none / 0)

What the partisan index is. IIRC, its the difference between the spread in a state and the spread nationally? So NV becomes +.1 R because the national spread narrowed, right? As opposed to because of changes in the NV vote count. (I ask because NV ended up being a bit closer than was reported on Nov 3; Kerry gained a few thousand votes from provisional ballots and pushed the final statewide margin under 20K).
by desmoulins on Wed Dec 08, 2004 at 06:23:43 PM EST

Re: still not sure I follow (none / 0)

Where are those latest Nevada results?

The latest ones I see at the Nevada Secretary of State's website has the total Bush (418,690)50.47% to Kerry (397,190) 47.88% which is a margin of exactly 21,500 votes.

I worked with ACT Nevada in Las Vegas so I'm particular interested in Nevada results, especially for the 2006 senate race and the 2008 presidential race.

To answer your question, if Bush's national percentage goes down, then his Nevada percentage is no longer above his national percentage but now it is below, so he performd better in Nevada than he did in the rest of the country so Nevada goes into +0.1 partisan index category.

by MadProfessah on Wed Dec 08, 2004 at 07:18:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

counting votes (none / 0)

when  are all the votes going to be final? it`s been 5 weeks now. i assume these votes are coming from rural areas where i would expect bush to be gaining not losing.
by JOEL1954 on Wed Dec 08, 2004 at 06:46:51 PM EST

Re: counting votes (none / 0)

Provisional ballots and late-arriving absentee ballots are the ones being counted.  California in particular is slow about getting the final votes in, so that explains part of the narrowing gap.  We should know the official total by this weekend, since the electors must be chosen by the 12th.
by CA Pol Junkie on Wed Dec 08, 2004 at 08:30:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Compare to www.electoral-vote.com (none / 0)

Kerry's closed Colorado from a 6.2% loss to 4.7%.  Coming from Gore's 8.4% loss, and with Latino immigration and the growing Boulder/Denver area in mind, and the capture of a Senate and House seat, and taking of the state legislature, it's obvious to me this has the making of a new Democratic anchor in the West.

New Mexico went from 1.1% loss to .8%, we'll easily take it back four years from now.

Iowa from .9% to .7%, better, but we still need to break the Republican takeover of the river states from Clinton's presidency.

Ohio from 2.5% to 2.1%, coming from Gore's 3.6% loss, and our defending of the other Great Lake states (Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania) I'd say we nearly have this region under control.  Declining union membership is a problem, though.

Virginia from 8.7% to 8.2%.  Gore only lost it by 8%, but we improved by taking the largest county (Fairfax) from Bush, (by a 6% margin).  Given the rapid DC area growth in Virginia, I see the state becoming a true tossup some years from now, regardless of whether we run a Southernor or not.  Not even Clinton could take Virginia, but times are changing.

by Skaje on Wed Dec 08, 2004 at 07:09:31 PM EST

2.5M Catholic Swing Vote--a coincidence (none / 0)

If Kerry retained the Gore Catholic Voters, he would have won!
2.5 M more Catholics voted for Bush

2.5M more Catholics voted for Bush and that is about the margin of difference between Bush and Kerry.  Gore won the Catholic vote in 2000.

How can we win back the Catholic voter?  Do Dems have anything similar to this?  Director of Catholic Outreach?

Actually when I started hearing the priest during sermons and end of the masses telling us to vote pro-life,  I then felt Kerry would lose.

And to think the Pope was vehemently anti-Bush!

---Original Message Follows----
From: "Martin Gillespie, Director of Catholic Outreach, RNC" <gopteamleader@gopteamleader.com>
To:
Subject: Thank You and Congratulations!
Date: Mon, 29 Nov 2004 16:36:49 -0500 (EST)
Dear ,
With the post-election number-crunching completed, we as Catholics can be proud that the Catholic vote went to President Bush by a margin of 52%-47%! The President was the right candidate for Catholics, and the election results reflect that.
We now know that President Bush decidedly improved his standing among Catholic voters since his 2000 election, when he lost the Catholic vote to former Vice President Al Gore, 47%-50%. This eight-point net gain represents more than 2.5 million new Catholic votes for President Bush. Over thirty-two million Catholics voted in this election, and almost seventeen million of those Catholics voted for President Bush.
Other notable facts about the election include:
·Among Catholics who attend mass weekly, the President won 56%-43%;
·The first time since 1988 that a Republican presidential candidate has won the Catholic vote;
·This election marked the first time that a Catholic major party candidate for President has lost the Catholic vote;
·The President outperformed his national average with Catholics in key battleground states, winning the Catholic vote in critical states such as Ohio (55%- 44%) and Florida (57%-42%).
We will continue to make clear that the Republican Party is a natural choice for Catholics. In this respect, please expect to hear from us in the months ahead with our continued plans to build Catholic support for the President and his initiatives.
Again, thank you for participating in this successful campaign.  You made a difference!
With respect and appreciation,
Martin Gillespie
Director of Catholic Outreach
Republican National Committee
*
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by jasmine on Wed Dec 08, 2004 at 08:45:41 PM EST

Become Anti-abortion? (none / 0)

I dunno if winning more Catholics back is possible without extreme measures such as that.
by Geotpf on Thu Dec 09, 2004 at 05:15:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

more Republican recount requests, please! (none / 0)

"Charles Melancon, Democrat . . .
who won a Congressional runoff
election [in Louisiana] by 523 votes,
gained one vote in a recount requested
by his Republican opponent,
Billy Tauzin III [who] . . . lost
62 votes in the recount . . ."

item in NY Times, 12/8/04

I'd like to see more recounts in the Presidential vote . . .
"Where did that mandate go, anyway?"

by Woody on Wed Dec 08, 2004 at 11:25:16 PM EST

spin point (none / 0)

2.48% rounds, of course, to 2%.

So we can now say he lost only by 2%, if we want to indulge a calculated, but correct, sloppiness.

And what's CERTAINLY false is that Kerry lost by 3%, though I have little doubt but that our media morons will continue saying this. Yet there's no way at all of rounding 2.48% to 3%.

by frankly0 on Thu Dec 09, 2004 at 04:01:30 AM EST

Chris... (none / 0)

Now that Nevada is in the Republican column, can you update your 2004 map to show Nevada pink instead of the light blue it is in the old map?
by raginillinoian on Thu Dec 09, 2004 at 08:11:59 PM EST

We needed to put a more serious effort into SW (none / 0)

Seems we lost NM by 5,988 votes, NV by 21,500, and CO by 99,523.  IOW, another 128,000 votes in those 3 states would have won us their 19 EVs and an election.
by RT on Mon Dec 13, 2004 at 11:21:01 AM EST


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