Leo Hindery, in the last CattleCall, was last, and now he's dropped out. After the blogosphere raked him over the coals for his past political actions, Hindery-surrogates spent a week trying to smooth it over with emails ('talk with him, he's a good guy'), before Leo arrived in Orlando in his private jet, only to leave 4 hours later, dropping out of the race.
Howard Dean has a great time, but he's still not declared himself a candidate, and he's still not the frontrunner. The state chairs and executive directors are not reflective of Howard Dean's base, and yet, he's formidable among even this group. Dean was accessible throughout the event, and he got a lucky break. When Leo Hindery dropped out, it opened the Saturday morning breakfast slot that Dean grabbed up. Dean had been slated for an event to be held at 4-7 PM Saturday, after when many would have already left Orlando. Dean's breakfast was by far the most attended, where he spent over an hour taking questions and answers. Also, I spoke with Jim Dean briefly after the event, Howard's Connecticut-based brother, and unsuccessfully prodded him about taking up an '06 primary challenge against a certain Senator.
Wellington Webb reflects the ASDC priority of gutting the centralized power of the DNC. Webb was far better in his 5-minute speech than the speech he delivered during his evening event on Thursday. Because the ASDC is Webb's base, it shouldn't be surprising that the well-known Vice Chair has a fair amount of support, but I was surprised, because his performance wasn't altogether impressive. Webb's got a base and is a serious candidate, but not likely to become a consensus alternative. If anything, he's more an outsider than is Dean.
Ron Kirk seemed to come out of nowhere to a landing near the top. He's not that well-known, but he knows how to work a crowd. Kirk's not even that certain that he's even a candidate, and said that he wouldn't know if he'd enter the race until next month. He went last in the speeches, but spoke to the lack of women candidates in a way that connected very well with at least half the audience. The exit poll we did reflected this, as it was basically a snapshot of how the DNC members reacted to the speeches (top three), not who they would vote for as DNC Chair. It will be interesting to see if he gains DC-based traction. If there's a DLC 'status quo' candidate, it's Kirk. He's got charm, and if the Party wants to move to "the middle", Kirk's there.
Simon Rosenberg could at least be glad that his message got out at this meeting. Rosenberg has spent the last year alerting the Democratic Party to the powerful machine that the Republicans have, and the other candidates listened. But the understanding here of what that means, in terms of building that opposition, was the larger argument that Rosenberg is just beginning to make. It's particularly relevant to the State Parties (& their lackluster websites). If they want money from the grassroots, they need to start giving the netroots the tools to get involved, rather than just giving lip service but only really wanting their money. Simon's support is going to come partly out of DC, and partly through the web-users that are connected to the blogosphere--and there were few of those DNC members in attendance at the ASDC meeting.
Donnie Fowler raised his stock quite a bit at this meeting by being well prepared. Like Webb, this was Fowler's base of support. He's able to look out across the sea of faces and make connections from previous efforts he'd made in campaigns across the nation. The drawback I heard at the meeting was that Fowler, like Rosenberg, was young, but as they pointed out, embracing young winners doesn't seem to be a difficulty the Republicans have. Fowler knew the campaign he needed to run at this meeting, and made the best of it. Of all the candidates, Fowler was the only one that actually was a candidate, complete with pins, stickers, and signs advertising his candidacy. Fowler most recently was the Field Director for Kerry in Michigan, hopefully, he kept his distance from the State Party's there handling of the money.
Martin Frost seems about one of the nicest guys you've ever met in a politician. I wasn't sure, but he seemed to recall the BlogPac video ad that we made for his uphill 32nd CD race against Sessions, and it was good to see that his wife was back from Iraq. Frost worked the crowd quite a bit, but it was an uphill event for the Rep., as the ASDC isn't a Hill crowd.
Jim Blanchard, in case you are wondering, is the new ABD candidate. We caught up with him as TIME was shooting his photo for the spread in the upcoming issue on the DNC Chair candidates. He told us that he'd supported Vilsack, but when Vilsack dropped out, he listened to the DGA, and to surrogates of Clinton and Kerry, and decided to take a look at getting into the race. He might have been expecting to cruise with a bit higher altitude in his candidacy, because when Matt showed him the exit poll numbers, Blanchard seemed to realize the uphill race he was facing. But are we really going to elect a Piper Rudnick DC-lobbyist as the next DNC Chair? Blanchard will need to commit to the race to be taken seriously.
Harold Ickes bombed, but he didn't back down. There's two things that the ASDC detests. 527's and the DNC's state-based canvassers. Same theme, the State Parties say they want the funds and names, but then, why don't they have canvassers out there? It's a legit complaint, there should be more partnership. For instance, Ickes said to focus on building up the state game by training from the DNC for State Parties. But when many in the ASDC heard "527" on his resume, he was toast in their minds.
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