Free Trade or Fair Trade

Paul Samuelson has turned up the heat on the discussion over globalization and outsourcing. Let me begin with a brief summary: linked text

Paul Samuelson, the eminent MIT Nobelist in economics, recently published an article in the Journal of Economic Perspectives that, according to the New York Times, is a:
"dissent from the mainstream economic consensus about outsourcing and globalization...aimed at what Samuelson terms 'the popular polemical untruth." That untruth, Samuelson asserts...is the assumption that the laws of economics dictate that the U.S. economy will benefit in the long run from all forms of trade, including the outsourcing of call-center and software programming jobs abroad. Sure, Samuelson writes, the mainstream economists acknowledge that some people will gain and others will suffer in the short term, but they quickly add that "the gains of the American winners are big enough to more than compensate for the losers."

(there's more)

That assumption, so widely shared by economists, is "only an innuendo," Samuelson writes. "For it is dead wrong about necessary surplus of winnings over losings." Trade, in other words, does not always work to all parties' advantage, according to Samuelson.

In an interview last week, Samuelson said he had written the article to "set the record straight" because "the mainstream defenses of globalization were much too simple a statement of the problem."

Here is a link to an American Prospect article, about Samuelson's new views on free trade, by Eamonn Fingleton, who wrote "Unsustainable: How Economic Dogma is Destroying American Prosperity: linked text

Paul Samuelson's complete article is here:  linked text

The general economic assumption is that "with no tariffs, quotas or transportation costs free trade will result in all price ratios being equalized." As in all economic discussions it is imperative to pay attention to the qualifiers. One of the reasons economics is referred to as the dismal science is that there is no such thing as a pure free market economy. There will always be government regulations that interfere with the operation of every market.

In his article Samuelson states the simple truth that it is not a necessary requirement that free trade benefits both parties, and also acknowledges that the particular "cure" a country may decide to implement can result in additional economic harm:

"Sometimes a productivity gain in one country can benefit that country alone, while permanently hurting the other country by reducing the gains from trade that are possible between the two countries. All of this constitutes long run Schumpeterian effects, quite aside from and different from transiftory short term harms traceable to short run adjustment costs or to temporary rents from patents and from eroding monopolies on knowledge. Even where a genuine harm is dealt out by the roulette wheel of evolving comparative advantage in a world of free trade, what a democracy tries to do in self defense may often amount to gratuitously shooting itself in the foot."

One key point Samuelson makes is that what may be the prime benefit of globalization is"globalization's enlargement of market size". Larger standardized markets provide economies of scale and an increase in economic productivity. Nobody is arguing that there are simple solutions to the economic problems caused by globalization and outsourcing. I do not believe anybody is calling for isolationism or building a wall around the United States with permanent tariffs. That is why I like to focus on "fair trade" instead of "free trade".

Here are some possible reforms suggested by TGeraghty in a Fair Trade diary by ToqueDeville at DKos linked text :

What kind of rules for the global economy do we need? There are lots of ideas out there: re-instituting some capital controls (even pro-free-traders like Jagdish Bhagwati have expressed some sympathy for this idea, because the negative side-effects of free capital flows are almost certainly much more destructive of international economic stability and living standards than is free trade); international labor standards (global minimum wage, right to unionize, child labor restrictions); reform of the IMF to return it to its intended purpose of stimulating global growth rather than depression, and so forth.

Samuelson is addressing the need for solutions to real world economic problems that are caused by unfettered free trade paradigms:

My most important omission, for realism and for policy, is treating all people in each region as homogenous Ricardian laborers. That inhibits our dealing with the realistic cases where some Americans (capitalists and skilled computer experts) may be helped by what is decimating the real free-trade wage rates of the semi-skilled or of the blue-collar factory workers.  ...  

Contemplate a situation where Schumpeter's fruitful capitalist destruction harms a really sizeable fraction of the future U.S. population, and, say, improves welfare of another group and does that so much as to justify a calculation that the winners could be made to transfer some of their gains and thereby leave no substantial U.S. group net losers from free trade.

"Fruitful capitalist destruction" has also been called creative destruction. It is a reference to the necessary destruction of inefficient products and companies so they can be replaced by superior products and companies. The global economy and Schumpeter's "fruitful capitalist destruction" is moving so fast and on such a large scale that American workers cannot meet the economic challenges without government assistance. When literally tens of thousands of people are discharged by a single company in a single geographic market, they will need not only extended unemployment benefits, but also educational/retraining assistance; perhaps even relocation assitance.

Samuelson claims that free trade advocates have been playing "a shell game in ethical debates about the conflict between efficiency and greater inequality." He directly addresses the missing debate about the catastrophic effect of economic transformation on American workers. :

Policy aside and ethical judgments aside, main stream trade economists have insufficiently noticed the drastic change in mean U.S. incomes and in inequalities among different U.S. classes. As in any other society, perhaps a third of Americans are not highly educated and are not energetic enough to qualified for skilled professional jobs. If mass imigration into the United States of similar workers to them had not been permitted to actually take place, mainstream economists could not avoid predicting a substantial drop in wages of this native group while the new immigrants were earning a substantial rise over what their old-country real wages had been. ,,,

Policy aside and ethical judgments aside, main stream trade economists have insufficiently noticed the drastic change in mean U.S. incomes and in inequalities among different U.S. classes. As in any other society, perhaps a third of Americans are not highly educated and are not energetic enough to qualified for skilled professional jobs. If mass imigration into the United States of similar workers to them had not been permitted to actually take place, mainstream economists could not avoid predicting a substantial drop in wages of this native group while the new immigrants were earning a substantial rise over what their old-country real wages had been.

Immigration contributes to the globalization problem because it lowers the wages of the most vulnerale American workers. While this is a favorable development for the business community, it compounds the effect of globalization on low or semi-skilled workers. Their jobs are shipped overseas at the same time they are facing increased competition from immigrants and lower wages for the remaining semi-skilled jobs they do land.

Samuelson also acknowledges that the scope and magnitude of outsourcing and globalization have changed in the last five years and the U.S. is no longer setting the pace:

Post 2000 outsourcing is just what ought to have been predictable as far back as 1950. ...

Pacific Rim countries have been catching up to U.S. in terms of per capita real income. France and Germany per hour productivity actually surpasses U.S. per hour productivity. It is only the weekly and monthly average number of total work hours that keeps us running ahead.

Allow me to add a pithy summary from Inovation and Business Architectures linked text

From the perspective of countries like India or China or the Phillipines, outsourcing is the market route to faster development. As with most market solutions, it is efficient and difficult to control. Worldwide, the net income gains are positive, but there may be fewer winners in developed countries than in those that are developing.

Free trade is not free. There are winners and losers. The biggest losers in todays globalization economic environment are American workers and we need to give serious consideration to "fair trade" reforms that protect American workers and the American economy.


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Strong diary, JollyBuddah (none / 0)

This is an issue that's going to require serious attention in the coming years, and to my knowledge, none in the political mainstream are willing to touch it.

It's a particularly difficulr issue on the left, because we may be averse--especially after an election defeat that calls for solidarity--to admitting how divided we are.  The Clinton centrist wing of the party has been all for NAFTA and free trade, while the traditionally labor- and union-based wing has been, to put it mildly, wary.  Some of the left may feel that outsourcing is a means of wealth transfer from rich to developing nations.

The pace of globalization is only going to increase.  It may be the Pat Buchanans of the world who jump on the loss of US jobs issue first.  It may be the Tom Tancredos of the world who jump on the immigration issue first.  But the Democrats need to be there, even if we have to go through some internal debate first.

Thanks again.

by Denver on Sat Dec 11, 2004 at 08:49:07 PM EST

I'll chime in to (none / 0)

That was great--and I just brushed through.  I can't wait to dig into tomorrow when I'm more conscious.
by descrates on Sun Dec 12, 2004 at 02:22:04 AM EST

Textbook economics glosses over reality (none / 0)

While its true that in trade both countries gain, the gain will not accrue evenly across the whole society.

To wit. America gains $1.13 for every $1.00 we outsource overseas. Which means that the the foriegn worker gains $.13, the corporation gains $.13. What about the american worker? He loses $1.00!!! Thanks alot buddy!

But, if you take the proceeds of that trade and distribute it to all the people (taxes, welfare state) nobody would complain (the 90's). When you do the opposite, as the Republicans do,
you risk seeing red flags in the streets.

by Paul Goodman on Tue Dec 14, 2004 at 07:35:53 PM EST


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