[I was finishing this up when I saw the concession news.  It's closer than Kerry thinks.  A LOT closer.]

TAPPED has an interesting point about the breakdown of provisional ballots.  According to Ohio's 2004 election results, the county-by-county breakdown of provisional ballots does not obviously favor Kerry.  For example, there are almost 24,800 from Cuyahoga County (central Cleveland).  If the provisional ballots follow the popular returns, Kerry would net fewer than 20,000 additional votes.

But: Ohio Sec. State Blackwell has said that 90% of 2000 ballots went Dem.  Hmm... what was the county-by-county breakdown in 2000?  In 2000, there were about 100,000 provisional ballots counted (numbers range from 98 to 108K); in 2004, there are probably about 150,000 (10 counties have not yet reported).  

Cleveland: The Cleveland Plain Dealer says that of in 2000, there were only 23,000 provisional ballots from Cuyahoga county (central Cleveland).  Increase of about 8%.

Athens: Dan Tokaji at OSU says Athens County (home to Dem college town of Ohio University) only had 1200 provisional ballots cast.  This year, there are 2500.  More than doubles!

Columbus: The Columbus Dispatch reports that in 2000, Franklin County issued about 12,630 provisional ballots, of which 10,168 were valid.  This year, there are 14,400 issued.  A 14% increase!

Cincinati: The Cincinnati Enquirer reported that there were 16,000 provisionals cast in 2000.  Hamilton County this year accounts for 14,400.  That's an 11% increase.

The key result is that it doesn't matter that the provisional ballots are spread all over the state - that's what happened in 2000, and Gore still got a huge percentage of them.  Kerry could do the same.