The last poll

by Jerome Armstrong, Tue Nov 02, 2004 at 12:01:14 PM EST

Frm NJ's Hotline, a rundown of the final national poll conducted by major media and polling organizations.: 
                                                   Bush Kerry Nader
ABC News/Wash. Post (10/28-31; 2,904 LVs; +/- 2%)   49%  48%	1%
American Research Grp (10/28-30;1,258 LVs; +/-2.8%) 48   48	1     
CBS/New York Times (10/29-11/1; 939 LVs; +/-3%)     49   47	1
CNN/USA Today/Gallup (10/29-31; 1,573 LVs; +/-3%)   49   49	1
Democracy Corps (D) (10/29-31; 1,018 LVs; +/-3.1%)  47   48	1
Fox News (10/30-31; 1,200 LVs; +/-3%)               46   48     1
GWU/Battleground (11/1; 500 LVs; +/-3.1%)           50   46     1
Harris (10/29-11/1; 1,092 LVs; +/-3%)               49   48     2
ICR (10/27-31; 473 LVs; +/- 4.5%)*                  48   47     1
Marist (11/1; 987 LVs; +/-3.5%)                     49   50     *
NBC/WSJ (10/29-31; 1,014 LVs; +/-3.1%)              48   47     1
Newsweek (10/27-29; 882 LVs; +/-4%)                 50   44     1
Pew (10/27-30; 1,925 LVs; +/-2.5%)                  48   45     1
TIPP (10/30-11/1; 1,284 LVs; +/-2.8%)               50   48     1
Zogby Int'l/Reuters (10/29-31; 1208 LVs; +/-3%)     48   47     1
Economist/YouGov (10/29-11/1; 1870 LV)              47   50     1
Rasmussen Reports (11/1)                            50   48     -

*Conducted in the batteleground states of 
AZ, AR, FL, IA, LA, MI, MN,MO, NV, NH, 
NM, OH, OR, PA, WA and WI.
I'll put in the extended entry the graph of the total ad spending by the WH campaigns and independent groups from 3/3-10/28, courtesy of their friends at TNS/CMAG; and the final polls from the organizations polling within the final weeks of the election in battleground states. 

The Purple States ($500K+/EV spent by at both sides)
       ----Kerry/Dem Allies-----    -----Bush/GOP Allies------
State	  Total $    Total $/EV       Total $	  Total $/EV
CO	 8,788,602    976,511.33     6,120,781	  680,086.78
FL	71,234,736  2,638,323.56    44,824,741	1,660,175.59
IA	11,168,406  1,595,486.57     8,290,185	1,184,312.14
MI	21,756,361  1,279,785.94    14,369,301	  845,253.00
MN	14,630,674  1,463,067.40     8,380,725	  838,072.50
MO	13,389,337  1,217,212.45     7,768,890	  706,263.00
NH	 3,944,029    986,007.25     4,043,756	1,010,939.00
NM	 9,418,462  1,883,692.40     6,852,075	1,370,415.00
NV	15,479,711  3,095,942.20     9,130,435	1,826,087.00
OH	67,591,185  3,379,559.25    36,977,002	1,848,850.10
PA	46,695,451  2,223,593.90    28,676,437	1,365,544.62
WI	19,616,754  1,961,675.40    13,299,637	1,329,963.70

The Bubble States (At Least $100K/EV spent by at least one side)
       ----Kerry/Dem Allies-----    -----Bush/GOP Allies------
State	  Total $    Total $/EV       Total $	  Total $/EV
AR	 1,247,521    207,920.17     1,285,913	  214,318.83
AZ	 8,028,765    802,876.50     4,138,216	  413,821.60
LA	 1,214,990    134,998.89       329,497	   36,610.78
ME	 3,711,357    927,839.25     1,992,712	  498,178.00
NC	 2,053,589    136,905.93       370,148	   24,676.53
OR	 5,829,650    832,807.14     2,767,040	  395,291.43
VA	 1,872,496    144,038.15
WA	 8,186,837    744,257.91     3,605,624	  327,784.00
WV	 3,762,044    752,408.80
MD	 1,486,750    148,675.00

Top Ten States In Spending
Kerry/Dem Allies		   Bush/GOP Allies
       Total	   Total $/EV		   Total       Total $/EV
FL  $71,234,736  $2,638,323.56	   FL  $44,824,741  $1,660,175.59
OH   67,591,185   3,379,559.25	   OH	36,977,002   1,848,850.10
PA   46,695,451   2,223,593.90	   PA	28,676,437   1,365,544.62
MI   21,756,361   1,279,785.94	   MI	14,369,301     845,253.00
WI   19,616,754   1,961,675.40	   WI	13,299,637   1,329,963.70

NV   15,479,711   3,095,942.20	   NV	 9,130,435   1,826,087.00
MN   14,630,674   1,463,067.40	   MN	 8,380,725     838,072.50
MO   13,389,337   1,217,212.45	   IA	 8,290,185   1,184,312.14
IA   11,168,406   1,595,486.57	   MO	 7,768,890     706,263.00
NM    9,418,462   1,883,692.40	   NM	 6,852,075   1,370,415.00

Top Five States With The Most Costly Electoral Votes
Kerry/Dem Allies		   Bush/GOP Allies
       Total	   Total $/EV		   Total       Total $/EV
OH  $67,591,185   3,379,559.25	   OH  $36,977,002   1,848,850.10
NV   15,479,711   3,095,942.20	   NV	 9,130,435   1,826,087.00
FL   71,234,736   2,638,323.56	   FL	44,824,741   1,660,175.59
PA   46,695,451   2,223,593.90	   NM	 6,852,075   1,370,415.00
WI   19,616,754   1,961,675.40	   PA	28,676,437   1,365,544.62

Below is the list of final polls from the organizations polling within the final weeks of the
election. Note that this is only battleground states.

STATE	 BUSH  KERRY  POLL			  DATE	   MoE
      (+ indicates lead inside the MoE, ++ a lead outside)
AR (6)	 +51	43    Mason-Dixon		 10/27-29 +/-4
	  48	48    *Opinion Research 	 10/18-20 +/-4
	 +47	40    Univ. of Arkansas 	 10/5-20  +/-3.6
	 +46	45    *Zogby Int'l		 10/10-11 +/-4.5
CO (9)	 +49	47    *Zogby Int'l		 10/29-11/1 +/-4.1
	 +50	43    *Mason-Dixon		 10/27-29 +/-4
        ++51    42    *Pub Opinion Strategies (R)10/25-27 +/-4.3
	  48	48    *FMM & Assoc (D)       10/20-21 +/-4
	 +48	42    *Ciruli Associates	 10/15-19 +/-4
	 +51	45    *CNN/Gallup/USA Today	 10/14-17 +/-4
FL (27)   48    48    *Zogby Int'l               10/29-11/1 +/-4.1
	  48   +50    *American Research Group	 10/30-11/1 +/-4
	  44   +49    *Fox News/Opinion Dynamics 10/30-31 +/-3.7
	  47   +48    *^CNN/USA Today/Gallup	 10/28-31 +/-3
	 +50	46    *Strategic Vision (R)	 10/29-31 +/-3
	++51	43    *Quinnipiac		 10/27-31 +/-3
	  48	48    *InsiderAdvantage 	 10/29-31 +/-4
	 +49	45    *Mason-Dixon		 10/27-29 +/-4
	 +48	46    *Hamilton Beattie (D)	 10/24-27 +/-4
	 +51	43    *^Los Angeles Times	 10/22-26 +/-4.4
	  46	46    *Miami Herald		 10/19-21 +/-3.5
	  47   +48    *Research 2000		 10/18-21 +/-4
IA (7)	  45   +50    *Zogby Int'l		 10/29-11/1 +/-4.1
	 +49	46    *Strategic Vision (R)	 10/29-31 +/-3
	 +48	44    *Fox News/Opinion Dynamics 10/30-31 +/-3.7
	 +48	46    *^CNN/USA Today/Gallup	 10/27-30 +/-3
	 +49	44    *Mason-Dixon		 10/27-29 +/-4
	  45   +48    *Selzer & Co. 	     10/25-29 +/-3.7
	 +48	47    *American Research Group	 10/25-27 +/-4
	 +49	48    *Research 2000		 10/25-27 +/-4
MI (17)   46   +52    *Zogby International	 10/29-11/1 +/-4.1
	 +45	44    *Strategic Vision (R)	 10/29-31 +/-3
	  45   +47    *Mason-Dixon		 10/27-29 +/-4
	  41   +43    *Mitchell Research	 10/26-28 +/-4
	  46   +50    *Research 2000		 10/25-27 +/-4
MN (10)   45   +51    *Zogby International	 10/29-11/1 +/-4.1
	  48	48    *Strategic Vision (R)	 10/29-31 +/-3
	  44  ++52    *^CNN/USA Today/Gallup	 10/28-30 +/-3
	 +48	47    *Mason-Dixon		 10/27-29 +/-4
	  41   +49    *Star Tribune		 10/26-29 +/-3.1
	  42   +46    *St. Cloud Univ.		 10/17-26 +/-3.8
	 +47	44    *Univ. of Minnesota	 10/21-26 +/-3.7
NH (4)	 +49	48    *American Research Group	 10/30-11/1 +/-4
	  46   +47    *Mason-Dixon		 10/27-29 +/-4
	  46   +49    *Research 2000		 10/26-28 +/-4
	  48   +49    *Univ. of New Hampshire	 10/28-30 +/-4
	  41   +46    *Suffolk Univ.		 10/14-17 +/-4.9
NJ (15)   43   +48    *Quinnipiac		 10/27-31 +/-3.1
	  42	42    *Strategic Vision (R)	 10/29-31 +/-3
	  49   +50    *^Eagleton-Rutgers	 10/27-29 +/-3.6
	  43   +50    *Research 2000		 10/18-21 +/-4
NM (5)	  48   +51    *Zogby International	 10/29-11/+/-4.1
	  47   +48    *American Research Group	 10/27-30 +/-4
	 +49	45    *Mason-Dixon		 10/27-29 +/-4
	 +47	44    *Research & Polling	     10/26-29 +/-3
OH (20)  +49	43    *Zogby International	 10/29-11/1 +/-4.1
	 +50	47    *Fox News/Opinion Dynamics 10/30-31 +/-3.7
	  46   +50    ^CNN/USA Today/Gallup	 10/28-31 +/-3
	 +48	46    Strategic Vision (R)	 10/29-31 +/-3
	 +50	49    Univ. of Cincinnati	 10/27-31 +/-3.3
	 +48	46    *Mason-Dixon		 10/27-29 +/-4
	  50	50    Columbus Dispatch 	 10/20-29 +/-2
	  47   +50    *ABC News 		 10/14-17 +/-3.5
	  47   +49    *American Research Group	 10/23-25 +/-4
	  42   +51    *Los Angeles Times	 10/22-26 +/-3.9
OR (7)	  44   +50    *Mason-Dixon		 10/27-29 +/-4
	  46   +50    *American Research Group	 10/25-27 +/-4
	  45   +47    *Moore Information (R)	 10/24-26 +/-5
	  45   +53    *CNN/USA Today/Gallup	 10/15-18 +/-4
	  43   +49    *Research 2000		 10/18-21 +/-4
PA (21)   46   +50    *Zogby International	 10/29-11/1 +/-4.1
	 +50	46    ^CNN/USA Today/Gallup	 10/28-31 +/-3
	  46   +47    Strategic Vision (R)	 10/29-31 +/-3
	  47	47    Quinnipiac		 10/27-31 +/-3.1
	  46   +48    Mason-Dixon		 10/27-29 +/-4
	  47   +50    American Research Group	 10/23-25 +/-4
	  46   +51    Franklin & Marshall	     10/19-23 +/-5.1
	  48	48    Los Angeles Times 	 10/22-26 +/-3.9
	  46   +48    Muhlenberg College	 10/17-22 +/-3.5
	  45   +50    West Chester		 10/24-26 +/-4
WI (10)   45   +51    *Zogby International	 10/29-11/1 +/-4.1
	 +47	45    *Strategic Vision (R)	 10/29-31 +/-3
	 +48	45    *Fox News/Opinion Dynamics 10/30-31 +/-3.7
	++52	44    *^CNN/USA Today/Gallup	 10/27-30 +/-3
          46   +48    *Mason-Dixon		 10/27-29 +/-4
          47   +48    *American Research Group   10/25-27 +/-4
	 +48	47    *Univ. of Minnesota	 10/14-19 +/-4
	 +48	45    *Univ. of Wisconsin	 10/23-27 +/-4.3



Tags: General 2008 (all tags)

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Permalink :: 9 Comments :: Post a Comment


Economist/YouGov? (none / 0)

Kerry 50 Bush 47 Nader 1 Other 2 (LV moe 2) (10/29-11/1)
Link
by c0ppelius on Tue Nov 02, 2004 at 12:39:40 PM EST

Re: Economist/YouGov? (none / 0)

Thanks, I added it, any others?
by Jerome Armstrong on Tue Nov 02, 2004 at 12:46:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Economist/YouGov? (none / 0)

There is the Harris online poll which might be fun to include as a test. K 50 B 47 N 1 Badnarik 1 other 1 (10/29-11/1) Link
Also a question - do you know who won the absentee balloting in Ohio in 2000? There is speculation that Ohio posted some early results although the reports are very unconfirmed.
by c0ppelius on Tue Nov 02, 2004 at 01:05:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Good Lord (none / 0)

That is precisely at the 48.5-48.6 tipping point for Bush. This is going to be an extremely close election.
by Chris Bowers on Tue Nov 02, 2004 at 12:58:50 PM EST

Final Rasmussen (none / 0)

Final Rasmussen is Bush 50.2, Kerry 48.5, not 49-49.
by BigModerate on Tue Nov 02, 2004 at 01:18:12 PM EST

Re: Final Rasmussen (none / 0)

Using this, I calculate averages of Bush - 48.5%, Kerry - 47.5%.  Using 1.5% for 3rd parties and my personal allocation of undecideds as 2/3 - Kerry, 1/3 - Bush, I get final popular vote totals of Bush - 49.3%, Kerry - 49.2%.  No way we don't get multiple Florida-like recounts/litigation with the popular vote that close.
by BigModerate on Tue Nov 02, 2004 at 01:28:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Final Rasmussen (none / 0)

Well, Gore got a 2% bump off of the final 2000 polling, so if that pans out again (and I'm not arguing that it will), then it won't be as close.  

In 2000, they obviously undercounted Dem turnout; in 2004, its the new voters and the young that are probably being undercounted.

by Jerome Armstrong on Tue Nov 02, 2004 at 01:38:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Final Rasmussen (none / 0)

Not to nitpick but I would round 48.5 up to 49.  (I guess that is a nitpick after all...)
by BigModerate on Tue Nov 02, 2004 at 01:52:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Likely Voters (none / 0)

It should be noted that all these polls use likely voters.  If registered voters are used Kerry's position is somewhat better.  It really all comes to GOTV, as I don't really believe all the likely voter screens are accurate this year.
by franklin200 on Tue Nov 02, 2004 at 01:40:52 PM EST


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