Con Mod Lib 1970's 32 40 18 1980's 36 40 18 1990's 38 41 18 2000's 34 40 18If there was a major shift against liberalism, and I believe there was, it happened in the 1960's. Since that time, the percentage of the population that identifies itself as liberal has remained static. It is actually conservatism, whose self-identifiers peaked at 40% of the population in 1995 following the Republican takeover of Congress, that is actually experiencing a slow decline.
Looking back at 2000, where the exit polls indicated that only 29% of those who voted were self-identifying conservatives, all along there may have been some very real credibility to the Republican claim that in 2000 conservative turnout was depressed. While we will never know the cause of this with certainty, I doubt the conservative narrative of a hateful-liberal media and their evil DWI story was the main culprit. Instead, I would wager that a Republican nominee running on a platform to massively increase federal involvement and spending in education and health care was at least equally, if not more to blame. This time, however, after four years of Bush governing to the right, Republicans managed to turn out their base in proportionate size to their share of the population (and their GOTV effort is a lot more developed, grassroots and organized than many might believe), and it resulted in victory.
Fortunately, further comparing the Harris figures to exit poll numbers indicates that both liberalism and moderation have significant room to grow. The decade average among the three ideologies only adds up to 92%, with 8% either refusing or answering "neither." In 2004, according to exit polls, that eight percent entirely allocated itself to liberal (21%, +3) or moderate (45%, +5), while the number of self-identifying conservatives (34%, even) remained the same. In other words, it seems possible that the remainder, when forced to choose, all broke against conservatism. Selling this remainder on either moderation or liberalism to the point of self-identification is one of our most important tasks over the next few years.
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