POLLS SINCE 10/1
model-Bush-Kerry-Nader
LV-48.0-47.2-0.7
RV-46.7-46.8-1.1

POLLS SINCE 10/15
LV-47.8-47.0-0.5
RV-46.0-48.0-0.0

GOTV!

What happens if over 120,000,000 vote? Those models don't work. Registrations are up, early voting is up. New voters with high turnout is not to pat the President on the back, but to kick him in the behind.

So is it close? No. Will we have to go to court to get a final decision? No. It will be clear and decisive. Kerry wins with over 300 votes. Anything that looks within 2% goes to Kerry. Record turnout validates his win, and repudiates Bush's record. He deserves it.

And remember in the final national poll results below, many of them were taking days before the election, well before Gore's final push began.

here is how the final polls looked in 2000
Final was Gore 49, Bush 48, Nader 3, Buchanan 0

Poll                     Bush Gore Nader Buch
ABC News (11/3-5)            48 45 3 1
Battleground (11/5-6         50 45 4 2
Bullseye (10/31-11/2, 11/5)  45 42 4 1
CBS News (11/4-6)            44 45 4 1
Democracy Corps (D)(10/30-31)45 45 5 2
Fox News (11/1-2)            43 43 3 1
Gallup (11/5-6;              48 46 4 1
Harris (11/3-5;)             47 47 5 0
ICR (11/1-5)                 46 44 7 2
Marist Inst. (11/1-2)        49 44 2 1
NBC/WSJ (11/3-5)             47 44 3 2
Newsweek (10/31-11/2)        45 43 5 0
pew (11/1-4)                 46 43 3 1
TIPP (11/4-6)                48 46 4 2
Wash. Post (11/4-6)          48 45 3 1
Zogby Int'l (11/5-6)         46 48 5 1

and some pollster/pundist predictions last time

Pollster Scott Rasmussen: "My sense of the race is that Governor Bush is ahead. We have him up by 7 points nationally. If he wins by anything [that margin] ... most of these toss-up states will fall in Governor Bush's direction" ("O'Reilly
Factor," Fox, 11/6).

Pollster Frank Luntz: "I think we're headed toward a Bush victory of somewhere around ... 3.5 percent. And that will correlate to a very narrow, but successful electoral campaign
for Governor Bush" (MSNBC, 11/6).

FNC's Hannity: "Bush is going to win this by 5 points and anywhere between 320 and 250 electoral votes" ("Hannity & Colmes," Fox 11/6).

Begala: "The popular vote -- virtual tie, 48 to 48,although I predicted this before we got news of the Gore surge in today's tracking poll. Still, Gore wins 273 to 265. Get ready for President Gore" ("Equal Time," MSNBC, 11/6

STATES Summary
This isn't to necessarily denigrate the pollsters who were wrong. Gore had momentum going into the election so voters could have changed their minds, and the polls carry margins of error for a reason. No poll ever claims it will be dead-on.

In the states, Zogby and Mason-Dixon were pretty good.
In Florida, polls varied by as much as having Gore up by 5 to Bush up by 5. Other polls were totally screwed up. (ARG had Bush by 5 in Fla. and LA Times had Bush by 4, and CBS/NYT had Bush by 5)
Interestingly Mason-Dixon was often more favorable to Gore, so don't cast aside that poll as right-leaning. In fact, M-D had some swing states pretty well nailed.
Zogby was good, called a lot of states pretty well. He was really wrong only in CA where he had it tied and Gore won in double-digits. In Ohio, Zogby and M-D nailed it while the Dispatch and Enquirer were off by 6 points.
 Zogby had Gore ahead in PA., Michigan and winning Florida by 2 points and a tie in Wisconsin. We all know that Gore really did win Florida, forget the hanging chads and butterfly ballot confusion, but all the minority voters who were Jim Crowed.

M-D had New Mexico tied, Bush by 4 in Nevada, Bush by 1 in Missouri, Gore by 3 in Minnesota (much better than other polls), Bush by 1 in Arkansas, had Maryland and Kentucky pretty well on
and had Gore by 3 in Pa, (won by 6, Zogby had a 9 pt margin)

It did have Bush ahead by 2 in Florida, but that wasn't that far off the mark, well within the MOE.
M-D did screw up Delaware calling it for Bush when Gore won big and badly underestimated Gore's strength in Ill.., calling it a 3 point race when Gore won by 12.

Some notable flubs in 2000

California -- All underestimated Gore's 13-point margin of victory. Field had 5,

Illinois - Opiniion Dynamics called it for Bush by 1 point. Zogby was closest, called it a 7 pt Gore win.

Michigan == Gore won by 5. Only one poll -- EPIC/MRA called it for Bush by 1. Zogby had Gore by 6.

Minnesota - Star-Tribune called it Gore by 10 and he squeaked by with a 2-pt win. St. Cloud U had Bush by 3 points, not great, but within the MOE.

Missouri -- Went for Bush by 4 and the pollsters were pretty good. Only ARG had it for Gore, but only by 1

New Hampshire -- Bush by 1, but ARG had Bush by 10 and RES. 2000 had Gore by 4.

New Jersey -- Gore by 16, no big gaffs here. Quinnipiac had Gore by 8. Rutgers by 12.

Pennsylvania -- Gore by 5. LA Times had Bush by 2.

Tennessee -- ARG had Gore by 6. Bush won by 3.

Wisconsin -- Gore won in a virtual tie. St. Norbert had Gore by 7. RES 2000 by 6. Market Shares had Bush by 5.

This is Massachusetts so we don't matter electorally, but the local towns are predicting a close to 100% turnout.