The Tsunami

Steve F's diary below strongly indicates that what Harold Meyerson witnessed is indeed taking place:
I have spent the past week observing the official Democratic Party and unofficial 527 field operations in the battleground states of Ohio and Florida. And I have found something I've never before seen in my 36 or so years as a progressive activist and later as a journalist: an effective, fully functioning American left.

Those liberal organizations that already knew how to do politics -- the AFL-CIO, the League of Conservation Voters (LCV) and a few others -- are doing it better than they have before. Those liberal groups that stayed aloof from elections or phumphered ineffectually are now playing the game like seasoned pros. New organizations have arisen to mobilize sometime voters; the largest of them -- America Coming Together (ACT) -- will have 12,000 staffers in each of the three biggest battleground states (Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida) on Election Day.

And most amazingly, all the 527s -- ACT, the AFL-CIO, the LCV, the Sierra Club, the NAACP, Emily's List, MoveOn and 25 others -- are working together under the umbrella of a single coalition, America Votes. They meet together, plan together, divvy up turf, parcel out messages, coordinate their mailing and phone banking.(...)

The Democrats will have lots of people -- party people, 527 people -- getting out their vote in Ohio on Election Day. Putting together the estimates of the various party and non-party groups, I got a total of somewhere between 40,000 and 50,000. For a state of 10 million, with a potential electorate of 5 million, having 50,000 people to get those Kerry voters who need an extra zetz to the polls is nothing short of astounding. Partly due to these groups' efforts, Kerry has already pulled ahead in Ohio, and I'm confident he'll take the state next Tuesday.(...)

If John Kerry is elected next Tuesday, the tsunami of volunteer activity within the independent groups will be in large part responsible. Whether this tsunami can be bottled -- whether this coalition will take on a permanent life of its own, become an enduring progressive presence in American politics -- is a question of resources, opportunity, Zeitgeist and even law (the legal status of the 527s may be under attack if Bush wins). But the leaders of progressive organizations, Democratic elected officials, and the hundreds of thousands of phone bankers and precinct walkers, each for their own reasons, want the outpouring of 2004 to become a fixture of American politics. "Progressives have been waiting for decades for a citizen-based movement to happen," says Ed Cyr. "One that's independent of the party, that's integrated, that's effective."

"This is it," says Cyr. "It's happened."

If you have the time, you have to read the entire piece. It is so beautiful I want to cry. It seems to be the start of what I always dreamed would happen in America. This is exactly what needed to happen if we were to have any chance of reversing the Republican gains of 1984-2002. We are going to win, and this is just the beginning. Our time has arrived. Let's make it happen.



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Tsunami (none / 0)

The Old Sled sure gits movin when all the dogs pull the same direction. This is only the beginning.
by hazzcon on Thu Oct 28, 2004 at 01:57:12 PM EST

grass roots (none / 0)

And now we have the INTERNETS to facilitate the grass roots revolution.  You ain't seen nothing yet....
by global yokel on Thu Oct 28, 2004 at 02:06:07 PM EST

how likely is a k/e win of +350 evs? (none / 0)

I gather at this point, if the election were held today, we'd probably win somewhere in the range of 300-330 EVs (assuming that we carry all 3 chief battlegrounds, while keeping our losses of Gore states to a minimum, if none at all).  But considering the definite momentum shift in the past week or so toward Kerry, and the story about missing weapons in Iraq which has been growing since Monday, is it likely that we might see borderline marginal states like VA, NC, CO, AZ, AR, MO, WV, etc. join the bandwagon?  I'm way too young to remember 1980, but as a political junkie and historian, I see an awful lot of parallels....

by jsramek on Thu Oct 28, 2004 at 02:07:49 PM EST

Wonderful! (5.00 / 1)

I can see it now: "John Kerry only won because more people voted for him.  These self-selected voters do not represent the will of the average Floridian, and any scientific survey will tell you that the people of Florida preferred Bush.  John Kerry stole this election in the most heinous and un-American of ways--at the ballot box."    
by Christopher on Thu Oct 28, 2004 at 02:08:05 PM EST

Thank you George! (none / 0)

See, I'm a uniter...
by kamajii on Thu Oct 28, 2004 at 02:08:25 PM EST

yeehaw (none / 0)

good fun.  I'll be volunteering with America Votes saturday-tuesday.  hope it goes well!
by seamus on Thu Oct 28, 2004 at 02:18:02 PM EST

Tsunami (none / 0)

GOP can punch at the water all they want but they cannot stop the wave.
by c0ppelius on Thu Oct 28, 2004 at 02:26:26 PM EST

not so fast.... (none / 0)

Remember how the Dean "storm" was going to sweep through Iowa and New Hampshire this winter?  Question: why is this going to be different from that?
by benbryant on Thu Oct 28, 2004 at 02:27:06 PM EST

I can give you several reasons (none / 0)

Dean's storm was mostly talk, there were plenty of people for the other candidates, and the ones working for Kerry & Edwards were better.

There is only one candidate in this election, one goal.  Iowa had several.

This is also about voting, not about caucuses.  All we need to do is get our people out.

Most important, the appropriate comparison is not with the Iowa caucuses, but with Election 2000.

We won in 2000, but by a small margin.

The combined GOTV operations this year dwarf anything done in 2000, and dwarf anything I have ever seen in nearly thirty years of political campaigns.

The attention level is higher among the entire electorate.  

The determination level is more intense for this election AND FOR THIS CANDIDATE than anything I have ever seen. While it is fashionable in some parts of the Patriotic Opposition to dis John Kerry, he is more popular with more Democrats than Clinton was in 1992.

Democrats and the unaffiliated left are more motivated, and more dedicated to working together, than they have ever been.

We are going to win, and it is going to be a much bigger win than the SCLM can fathom.

by James Earl on Thu Oct 28, 2004 at 02:33:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Ok.... (none / 0)

but we also have to realize that the Republican GOTV machinery has improved substantially since 2000.

Also, I have to take issue with your claim that Kerry is more popular with the Democratic base today than Clinton in 1992.  I don't even think he's as popular as Gore was in 2000.

In the Zogby poll, women prefer Kerry by a measly 3 points.  Meanwhile, two polls - NYT and Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies. I believe - show Bush at 17-18 among blacks.

I'm not pretending to be a poll expert, so there might be problems with those numbers.  But there are numerous signs that this ain't gonna be a landslide.  I see it as 50.5-49.5, either way.

by benbryant on Thu Oct 28, 2004 at 03:22:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ok.... (none / 0)

Remember, Clinton won in 1992 with only about 43% of the vote, with Perot taking a lot of support from Bush (and Clinton, too).

We look back now with rose-colored glasses wishing all these guys were Clinton. But in a sense, Clinton wasn't even Clinton. He had a charm that we all loved and promised hope after 12 years of grouchy GOPers, but I think Kerry is doing a hell of a job.

Is he Clinton? Ok, probably not.

But he's much better than Al Gore. There's no contest. In a way, Al Gore was a boy just as GWB is a boy. Kerry's an adult. He's a cool customer. And you can see it.

by TheGaffer on Thu Oct 28, 2004 at 03:35:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Correcting the poll results (none / 0)

I understand that the pollsters are assuming that their poll responders will not be representative, and so adjust their poll results to represent the population they're studying.  Presumably then they have demographics of the registered voter population.  If so, how old are those registered voter demographics?  And is there any evidence that the poolsters are consistently drawing "unrepresentatively high" numbers of certain groups in their registered voter samples?
by Christopher on Thu Oct 28, 2004 at 02:29:28 PM EST

The really weird thing is... (none / 0)

While the Campaign or Party cannot coordinate with the 527's.  The 527's are free to coordinate among themselves as much as they please.  An interesting subject to contemplate and discuss...after Nov. 2.
by NvDem on Thu Oct 28, 2004 at 03:57:26 PM EST

The left rises again (none / 0)

It is about time that progressives started organizing for our common goals.  The Right has been at it for twenty years.  If we want to overcome the unholy alliance of puritanical fundimentalists; economic-Darwinian Luddites; and country-club republican elites, the left has to come on strong not only for this election, but keep working to take back the state capitols and county boards before the next redistricting.  
by filadog on Thu Oct 28, 2004 at 03:59:42 PM EST


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