MyDD :: Kerry up by 17 in Florida!

Kerry up by 17 in Florida!

by Steve F, Thu Oct 28, 2004 at 01:01:12 PM EST

Even in a sample size this small, a 17 point lead is actually outside the MoE. No wonder Republicans in Florida are frustrated--Chirs

Among people who have voted already, according to Quinnipiac:

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x12942.xml?ReleaseID=488

Q has Bush up 3 among likelies, a tie among those registered, but has Kerry up a remarkable 56-39 among those who have already voted. That's a truly astounding number, and flies in the face of conventional wisdom that says the Republicans do better in early voting.

It's a small sample size (approximately 203 of the 1268 Q interviewed), so the number might be on the cusp of the MoE, but it could be evidence that Florida Democrats are motivated on an unprecedented level in this states.

And count me in as one of those who has voted early.

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Here in Florida (none / 0)

It took me 2 hours in line to get in to vote the other day, my wife 3 hours the day after ... plenty of people lining up to vote early here in Florida, don't know which way it is going to turn here, Bush seems to be made of teflon, nothing sticks. I see the FOP threw there support to him today, GOd help them when those now legal automatic assualt weapons get into the prying hands of those who want to do policemen harm.

by Monkei on Thu Oct 28, 2004 at 01:22:27 PM EST

Margin of error (none / 0)

The 95% confidence interval for the early voters would be +- 6.7 percent for Bush's vote and +- 6.9 percent for Kerry's. So the 17 percent spread is definitely significant.

by struggles on Thu Oct 28, 2004 at 01:23:52 PM EST

And my vote counted!!! (none / 0)

Called my county election official (Republican) to make sure my absentee vote was received. It was, and is counted. (yippee) But, when I asked about Broward County, she said "[Broward County election officials] are being brutalized in the press due to the failings of the postal service." That's a cop out! The only thing brutal here is the loss of ballots for which THEY are responsible.

by swissmiss on Thu Oct 28, 2004 at 01:28:05 PM EST

How can this be (none / 0)

According to florida registration numbers there are about 15% more D's than R's, the poll says the parties are being very loyal to their candidates, but it also says Kerry is winning the I's 49-32 and yet Bush is up 49-46!

It's not adding up!

by pollwatcher on Thu Oct 28, 2004 at 01:30:22 PM EST

Re: How can this be (none / 0)

It doesn't add up because the Q-poll has oversampled Republicans in every state it goes to. Kerry is clearly winning in this poll. I'm not going to bash it though--iots too late. GOTV. I'll deal with bad polls after the election.

by Chris Bowers on Thu Oct 28, 2004 at 01:38:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Boy, I'd love to think it has a broader meaning... (none / 0)

But I just don't think we know enough about the makeup and motivations of the early voter pool from one state to the other to say that this self-selected subset of voters is in any way representative of the total sample that will be in by the close of the polls on November 2. I happy our folks are getting their votes in before the rush, but I'm not looking to EV reports for any tea leaves.

by RickT on Thu Oct 28, 2004 at 01:40:20 PM EST

Re: Boy, I'd love to think it has a broader meanin (none / 0)

ditto.

To small a sample to draw meaningful conclusions. The freepers were creaming their pants over ABC's poll showing Bush ahead 51-47 among about 150 early voters. Another thing - they said it was
56-39 for Kerry - 56+39 = 95. What about the other 5% - they can't be undecided! What, did they vote for Nader, or did they forget who they voted for?

But even still, I much rather the tables turned this way then turned the other way!

by bushsucks on Thu Oct 28, 2004 at 02:19:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Boy, I'd love to think it has a broader meanin (none / 0)

Or wouldn't say. I bet a few of those refused to say who they voted for.

by elrod on Thu Oct 28, 2004 at 02:53:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Boy, I'd love to think it has a broader meanin (none / 0)

Ah yes! You're right. Good point!

by bushsucks on Thu Oct 28, 2004 at 03:09:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I can smell the victory in FL from GWB's schedule (none / 0)

This is a very offensive schedule, 3 hits in MI, 4 in Ohio and 2 in PA, but it seems GWB forget FL and IA. Does this guy think they are already in his bag? The recent poll say no. ( Don't mention Gallop, next time their sample will include 60% GOP and claim FL is another Utah.)

I think the answer is: Bush knows there is no hope in FL and little in OH, so he has to win all the following state to get 270: IA, WI, MN, MI( or OH).

May be someone will disagree and argue that Bush may think his brother can help him again this time so feel confident about FL. But if it's true, why MI and PA. Doesn't he think MN is more winnable and WI+IA is good enough for him? If he lose OH+NH but win FL+IA+WI, he can still win. No hit in IA, only 1 in both MN and WI, but 3 in MI doesn't make sense. I guess the GOP internal poll in FL is not good, Kerry at least lead by 3 points and the gap is wider, so Bush has already give up in this state.

If Kerry take FL and NH, he will get 291 if all blue state in 2000 keep blue, so Bush need at least 22 electoral votes assuming he can still take OH ( his 4 hits in this state confirm he is still trying). MN+WI+IA or NM+IA+WI is good enough. But what if he lose OH, the only hope will be MI or PA. Now all his wierd schedule can be explained.

So from my analysis, we can get a clear picture what the battleground look like:

IA: Bush leads 1-2 points, he should go there to consolidate his lead, but he doesn't have enough time now.

WI: tie, Bush has to assume he already win this state to get enough time for MI and OH, so he hit only once.

MN: tie or Kerry takes a slight lead, for the same reason, Bush assume he can win and only hit once.

OH: Kerry leads by about 2-3 pionts, so Bush is still trying.

FL: From the recent poll, it looks tight. But I guess Bush must smell sth bad for him. I bet Kerry is leading by more than 3 points there + a huge trend toward him.

PA: Kerry leads by 3 points, Bush is making his last effort by hitting 2 in this week, but I think he is wasting his time.

MI: Kerry leads by about 4 points, but there is a small momentum for Bush there, so he feels some holp and hits hard. I'm glad that Kerry will go to MI on Sonday. I don't think Bush have any chance to win this state.

NV and NM: If Kerry can win all the big three, these two cannot change the result.

NH?: I don't know why Bush will go there. Maybe he think he can find WMD from Iraq there and save his political life.:)

My final conclusion is: On Nov 2nd, Kerry will likely take all the big three+PA+MI+MN+WI and kick Bush out of tth whitehouse.

HaHaHa!

by ddPCR on Thu Oct 28, 2004 at 03:23:52 PM EST

Dream on . . . (none / 0)

No way Bush has given up on Florida--more like he thinks its in the bag and is going for the KILL by "taking" MI or PA as well. Bush is looking for 300+ EV and a "mandate."

Even though I have given a LOT of time and money to the Kerry campagin and have RAISED a botload of cash from others (I am a "Mr. Strongarm--put your money where your mouth is" type), I am not overly optomisitic about our chances on Tuesday--I think we have less than a 50-50 shot at this but I'm making my calls and trying to stay as positive as I can.

It all comes down to GOTV efforts in OH, MI, PA, WI, MN etc.

By the way, I think Kerry WILL win in CO and NM.

by PropMan on Thu Oct 28, 2004 at 03:46:19 PM EST

Re: Dream on . . . (none / 0)

He must be crazy if he want 300 or more, He should stay in WI and MN if not in FL, that's a logic campaign schedule. I believe FL is on Kerry's side. The early vote poll, ARG, SUSA and the suppressed one! I will be surprised if Kerry can't will FL by >2 points.

by ddPCR on Thu Oct 28, 2004 at 03:53:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Dream on . . . (none / 0)

I hope you are right and that I am wrong!

Gotta go make some more calls . . .

by PropMan on Thu Oct 28, 2004 at 03:57:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Dream on . . . (none / 0)

Explain your thinking .... why will Kerry win in CO-- where, except for Zogby's recent numbers, he's never been in too solid a positoin --- and lose MI, PA, MN where the spread has favoured him much more consistently?

FL could well go the way of massive fraud, and my own anxiety is that there is some massive nation-wide voting machine fraud in the works that we just haven't smelled yet .... that's the only way I can understand Bush's lack of follow through in FL and OH

by aruac on Thu Oct 28, 2004 at 04:26:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Dream on . . . (none / 0)

If it's only 1 pts lead, machine fraud can change the result. But if 3 pts lead in FL, you know how many votes? It's impossible for Bush to do such a hard job under the nose of thousands Dem lawyers.

by ddPCR on Thu Oct 28, 2004 at 04:40:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Frustration Breeds Contempt (none / 0)

Have you seen this report?
Caging voters

Call 1-866-OUR VOTE if you see or hear of anything resembling a duck.

by Muy Loco on Thu Oct 28, 2004 at 03:51:16 PM EST

Rest of LVs 52-43 for Bush? (none / 0)

Assuming the 203 who already voted are part of the LV pool (duh), the remaining 741 LVs in this poll were 52%-43% for Bush. How likely is that?

by Steve in Sacto on Thu Oct 28, 2004 at 03:52:24 PM EST

Impossible (none / 0)

Kerry led by 17 among indies as well, with Repubolicans only slightly more solid than Demcorats in a state where Dmeocrats outnumber republicans.

by Chris Bowers on Thu Oct 28, 2004 at 04:57:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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