New battlegrounds, and is the CBS/NYT's hiding a Florida poll?

by Jerome Armstrong, Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 11:34:21 AM EST

You think it's over in these states, and then you see these sort of numbers:


The pollsters with the candidates can be wrong, and when they step out of the state with ad presence, strange things can happen. Ohio in 2000 is an excellent example. Don't assume anything.

Here's a email note I got from an insider pollster:


The word I hear is that NYT/CBS are not going to release their latest FL survey, because it shows Kerry up by 4 points.  Apparently, they [CBS & NYT's] think that is an implausible result, so they are suppressing it.  Of course, it's not implausible at all.  And imagine the reverse:  would they have suppressed a poll showing Bush up 4?
Update (Chris): The rumor I heard, from a good source, was that the poll showed Kerry up nine in Florida. Maybe the poll is flawed, but they should at least release it. Include whatever caveats they want. After all, flawed polls never stop Gallup or Mason-Dixon from public release.




Tags: General 2008 (all tags)

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Michigan Poll is Crap (none / 0)

All other polls show a stronger lead for Kerry. I'm looking at the guts of the polls and it looks like there was an oversamle of voters 65+
by RandyMI on Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 11:42:42 AM EST

Re: Michigan Poll is Crap (none / 0)

That, plus the fact that Mitchell is crap. They've consistently shown a Bush lead, so this is actually trending kerry like everything else.

But hey, if it gets us riled up here in MI, all the better. I'd like big big big numbers. Maybe we'll defeat Proposal 2.

by emptywheel on Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 02:01:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Hmmmm (none / 0)

NJ: those are reg voter numbers; that poll also show a TIE in LVs (46-46), and it's a Q-poll, not Gallup, so they could be on to something-- Bush advantages on fighting terrorism, too, though Kerry advantages on all domestic issues. On the other hand, that makes Bush an incumbent at 46. MI: that's the same poll in which Bush has led all year until now; MI will go for Kerry by greater margins than NJ, I suspect. MO: good news, I guess, though it's a big expensive state-- easier to throw on last-minute ads in AR and WV, especially since we've got heavy hitters (Clinton and Senator Byrd) specific to those cheap media states. CBS: WTF? Should we email and demand that they release their poll? Will the NYT cover it in print?
by accommodatingly on Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 11:42:57 AM EST

Re: Hmmmm (none / 0)

Last NJ poll in 2000 showed Gore up by 6 and he ended up by 15.  I would not make any assumption on these polls.
by Mass on Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 11:46:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Read this relevant post (none / 0)

from Noam Scheiber:

http://www.tnr.com/etc.mhtml?pid=2222

by Haggai on Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 11:50:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hmmmm (none / 0)

I think Jersey will stay Blue, just a little closer than last time.  My prediction Kerry takes it by 8-10%
by yitbos96bb on Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 03:34:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Er, what? (none / 0)

So why the #$%% are they suppressing their poll?  No confidence?  wrongly weighted?  What is going on?
by agpc on Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 11:43:15 AM EST

NJ and MI (none / 0)

Mitchell is a Republican pollster and they are very biased.  They are the ONLY pollster that showed Bush up in MI (around +6 the two next days), so I guess that Kerry up by 1 is a sign that MI is NOT a swing state.

As for NJ, the Quinnipiac poll shows Kerry up by 5 in RV, so could it be another case of LV model run amok.  It is true that NJ has polled closer than expected for a long time, so Kerry will probably not win by 15, but most polls show him up at this point by 5 or 6 %.

by Mass on Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 11:44:11 AM EST

Only up 4 in FL? (none / 0)

Why is that implausible. Recent Florida polls show Kerry up 3, including SUSA and ARG.  Why is 4 so strange. If it was 9 I could understand but 4? That makes no sense.
by elrod on Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 11:44:58 AM EST

FL poll suppression? (none / 0)

Goddamnit, that better not be true.  Zogby didn't suppress his 49-45 Bush lead in FL from yesterday.  But, given the apparent fact that the results have already leaked, how COULD they suppress it without damaging themselves a lot worse from backlash than if they released it?  That is, operating under the assumption, one that I think is quite safe, that they would face major Dem outrage if they really did try to suppress it.  
by Haggai on Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 11:46:10 AM EST

I'll take those numbers... (none / 0)

...in Michigan and New Jersey.  GWB is toast at 41% (NJ) and 44% (MI).  And who really believes that 12% of New Jersey voters and 10% of Michigan voters are still undecided one week before Election Day?

by KTinOhio on Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 11:51:14 AM EST

Re: I'll take those numbers... (none / 0)

No kidding. I don't see why Jerome is saying NJ looks battleground-ish with the incumbent at 41%. The idea that Bush could gain nine points in Jersey in less than a week is about as like as the Red Sox coming back from a three-to-zero deficit: ie, one in a jillion.
by DavidNYC on Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 12:25:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I'll take those numbers... (none / 0)

you mean about as likely as the cards coming back from an 0-3 deficit.
by agpc on Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 12:28:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I'll take those numbers... (none / 0)

I had a dream, no, a nightmare, that the Cards won in the bottom of the 12th or 13th... seemed like a repeat of the Yanks meltdown, oh man, the bloody sock fans would never get over that happening.
by Jerome Armstrong on Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 12:41:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I'll take those numbers... (none / 0)

The cardinals winning would be just one more way for them to torment us Cubs fans.  Cardinals-Cubs is the midwest version version of Yankees-Red Sox except the Higher payroll team loses.  I HATE THE CARDINALS as much as I hate Bush.  Go Red Sox.  
by yitbos96bb on Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 03:37:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I'll take those numbers... (none / 0)

No I think he meant that no one in NY thought the Red Sox would be able to come back.  It was a once in a 50 year shot.
by yitbos96bb on Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 03:38:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I'll take those numbers... (none / 0)

I was thinking more along the lines of Missouri.
by Jerome Armstrong on Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 12:39:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Demand That They Release the Poll (none / 0)

E-mail the NYT at:

nytnews@nytimes.com
executive-editor@nytimes.com
managing-editor@nytimes.com

And CBS at:

http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/feedback/fb_news_form.shtml

by 14days on Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 11:53:16 AM EST

CBS/NYT (none / 0)

How can we write/call them on this poll suppression thing? What's going on with that?
by TheGaffer on Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 11:53:20 AM EST

Re: CBS/NYT (none / 0)

See my reply above.
by 14days on Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 11:55:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: CBS/NYT (none / 0)

Wait a minute--have they released other polls, but not FL?  If that happens, of course, we pound them.  But I'm not sure we should jump the gun on this one.  
by Haggai on Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 11:57:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: CBS/NYT (none / 0)

It's just one poll. I think we should all relax. I think CBS/Times are wary since they have caught some backlash from the ammo story (undeserved). They may want to save the poll so it is more effective, i.e. when they don't seem as biased.
by DPG on Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 11:58:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: CBS/NYT (none / 0)

I agree.  Who cares?  The only poll that matters is next Tuesday.  What matters is that they DID the poll and it shows Kerry up, not whether or not they release it publicly.
NJ Hussein Independent
by NJIndependent on Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 12:00:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: CBS/NYT (none / 0)

Disagree on this last point. You can't tailor your message based on the fact that you don't have the sympathy of someone because you pissed them off. And we do know that polls do affect perception. But the last point is, would they surpress a poll showing Bush up by 4?
by TheGaffer on Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 12:02:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: CBS/NYT (none / 0)

I agree, Gaffer, though I wonder what's in it for the Times...  

Most of all it's clear to me that public opinion is now so easily manipulated by news and polling organizations that we're up against what we dread most:  a fairly close finish in which Kerry wins and the whole election is thrown into doubt because the percentage of his win is so different from what was "predicted."  At the very least, he would have a four-year lame-duck term with ongoing arguments about whether he's "really" the president.

It sends me back to my original worries about the 2004 election -- when I asked myself, If one wanted to make sure that Bush "wins," what groundwork needs to be laid?  Certainly control of public opinion about who appeared to be the winner before Election Day would make a huge difference.  

by Bean on Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 01:40:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: CBS/NYT (none / 0)

You sure it is the ammo story.  I think they are still afraid since the Rather story.  The Times will never win friends in GOP circles, so I doubt they care.  I think CBS is suppressing this.
by yitbos96bb on Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 03:41:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Let them suppress it (none / 0)

If Democratic voters think the race is tied or that we are slightly behind -- they are only that much more likely to vote.  A "close horse race" story only ensures that the newly registered people that didn't vote in 2000 will be willing to wait in long lines to vote this time.  

If the alternative story is that Bush is winning the state in a landslide -- then by all means go ahead and slam CBS.  

by nwoknu snwoknu on Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 12:07:27 PM EST

Re: Let them suppress it (none / 0)

Well, notice that CBS is reporting Zogby's polls showing Bush winning by 4 or so in FL.
by zoechow on Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 12:08:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Those wacky wacky polls (none / 0)

Wow, the previous poll from Mitchell showed Bush up by 5, so Kerry's improved by 6 points in the Great Lakes State! Or rather, that pollster is just wack. And New Jersey is a joke, it's been getting screwed up polls all year. It's the California of 2004 (the last few polls of California in 2000 showed it tied, but Gore won it by 15 points).

And the CBS Florida poll surpression is really over the top. Nobody every surpressed absurd Gallup polls that showed Bush up by 13 or some crap. I mean, we get about four Florida polls every damn day, so it's not like it really matters, but it's a fact that they wouldn't hide a poll that showed Bush doing well.

by fwiffo on Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 12:08:15 PM EST

It's also the New Jersey of 2004... (none / 0)

...as someone commented earlier. New Jersey did this last year. Who knows how wide the margin in Jersey will wind up, but the state will not be in the Bush column (and if it does it will already have been on the way to being a long night anyway so why worry about it).
by thurst on Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 03:06:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

panic is not a good strategy (none / 0)

Check out www.race2004.net to see how these polls fall into the picture for Michigan and New Jersey.... (and look into Mitchell's track record on that Michigan thing)  these polls don't mean a thing

 the surest way for Kerry to lose would be to divert energy from FL, OH, WI, IA and try to shore up support in the huge MI and NJ markets...
heck,  any resources left over would be better spent angling for upsets in NV, WV,  AR and CO than running up his margins in states where Bush has never topped 46% in a poll...

by zoltar on Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 12:13:16 PM EST

Rasmussen: Late Deciders opt for Bush??? (none / 0)

Really?  Ummm.  Doesn't that, well, fly COMPLETELY in the face of the "incumbent rule?"
by swissmiss on Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 12:31:18 PM EST

Mitchell (none / 0)

My girlfriend actually pointed this out to me. If you scroll down the list of MI polls at 2.004.k, Mitchell Research has Bush leading until this point. In fact they have Bush up by 1 in almost the same period that susa has Kerry up 10.
by c0ppelius on Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 12:32:53 PM EST

Bush at 41%? (none / 0)

There's no way Bush can win New Jersey with a 41% polling number.  
by Christopher on Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 12:33:53 PM EST

NJ (none / 0)

I can't imagine Bush winning NJ.  I don't think it will really even be that close in the end.
by alhill on Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 12:38:23 PM EST

Florida Mess (none / 0)

We have more than a problem with polls in florida.  Look at this:

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml;jsessionid=GVNZWNIMI4OP0CRBAE0CFFA?type=topNews&storyID =6630631

or

http://www.bradenton.com/mld/bradenton/news/local/10023659.htm

Looks like they "lost" 60,000 absentee ballots!!

Why arent people being arrested??

by phemfrog on Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 12:39:27 PM EST

Chris' update (none / 0)

I guess I can understand some surprise at a poll that showed Kerry up 9 in FL, I'd certainly have a hard time believing it (not that he's ahead, but that he could up by 9).  But, yes, what polling firm or media organization would hesitate for even a moment if they got a lead for Bush that big in one of the battlegrounds?  Who would even think about suppressing, re-checking, or even caveating a 9 point Bush lead in FL, what with all the media attention it would get them?    
by Haggai on Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 01:13:13 PM EST

Re: Chris' update (none / 0)

Oh, yeah, almost forgot...Gallup!  Their latest FL poll has Bush up 9 among RVs.  Yeah, I'm sure they released it only "reluctantly."
by Haggai on Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 01:20:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Florida Surge (none / 0)

CBS/NYT poll or not, Kerry is surging in Florida.
--Social security revamp making seniors nervous
--Flu shot screwup making seniors mad
--Newspaper endorsements (and even non-endorsements) ravaging Bush
--Big Dog is all over the front pages and on TV.
Dems in South Florida are waiting for hours in early-voting lines.  Crowds for Kerry are huge.  Color us blue (again).  

by The Bit on Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 02:14:37 PM EST

Mitchell seem to releasing a Mich poll every day (none / 0)

That's a bit odd.
by Cyt on Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 02:42:53 PM EST

Michigan (none / 0)

Game... Set... Match... this state is as true blue as it comes. This state (my state) is on fire with anti-Bush emotion.
by Paul Goodman on Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 03:01:08 PM EST

Polls Are Important in Some Respect (none / 0)

I think polls are important, to the extent that it can provide a picture which is not consistent with post-election numbers.  I think one of the posts here alludes to the news that 60,000 absentee ballots were "misplaced".  Here's where I think polls might come in very handy indeed...especially if there are 5-6 indicating the very same trend, and the election results then turn out differently, AND there are indications of voter disenfranchisement, which there already are.  Say most polls indicate Kerry ahead by anywhere from 3-5-8% points 2-3 days prior to election, then Bush takes FL (or OH), w/flagrant election violations...that might motivate a lot more Dems to take to the streets, and more vehement legal actions.
by hopeisonetheway on Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 03:23:35 PM EST

Psyops (none / 0)

Who knows if the 9 point lead in Florida for Kerry is real. But if it isn't, then it's just as bogus as the Gallup polls swinging toward Bush.  Admit it, every time you see a Gallup poll heavily toward Bush you get a little queasy because you know it will get media attention and there's just a chance it might be right.  Well, why not put the Republicans on the defensive. I'm sick of the Democrats playing poll-debunking and the Republicans not having to.  They did it once with a skewed LA Times poll earlier this year but haven't had to do it much since.  I'd love to make them sweat over a 9-point deficit for Bush in Florida only days before the election.
by elrod on Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 03:48:50 PM EST

Rumor Also Spread By WaPo's Kaiser (none / 0)

Here
by Robwaldeck on Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 03:55:37 PM EST

poll still not out (none / 0)

I wrote CBS a note about the poll yesterday morning... no response, and no mention yet. WTF?

I agree with other posters... if the majority believes the race is close or leaning to Bush, then it will make it easier for the thugs to steal it.

by adog1 on Thu Oct 28, 2004 at 08:00:34 PM EST


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