Gallup Takes A Dump On Florida

by Chris Bowers, Tue Oct 26, 2004 at 12:44:55 PM EST

Good thing for the Gallup poll. Otherwise, people might have been surprised if Bush won Florida:

ARG: Kerry 49, Bush 46 (10/25)
Insider Advantage: Kerry 46, Bush 46 (10/24)
Miami Herald: Kerry 46, Bush 46 (10/21)
Rasmussen: Kerry 48, Bush 48 (10/24)
Research 2000: Kerry 48, Bush 47 (10/21)
Survey USA: Kerry 50, Bush 48 (10/24)
Zogby: Bush 48, Kerry 47 (10/24)

Seven polls over the last four days showing Kerry positioned for a victory in Florida, a state where Bush was unable to pass 48, was shut out of major newspaper endorsements, is getting beat on television advertising, and where Democrats are crushing Republicans in GOTV (previous post on the subject). Now, of course, we have Gallup showing Bush ahead in Florida 51 to 43, a complete conflict with all other polling of the state. Take a wild guess as to why they polled so differently from the other seven surveys:

Likely Voter Sample
TOTAL: 768
Rep: 341 (44%)
Dem: 273 (36%)
Ind: 146 (19%)

Registered Voter Sample
TOTAL: 909
Rep: 387 (43%)
Dem: 321 (35%)
Ind: 187 (21%)
In 2000, the electorate in Florida was 40% Democrat, 38% Republican, and 22% Independent. Gallup swung a +2% advantage for Democrats to a +8% advantage for Republicans, for an overall 10% pro-Republican swing. Gallup is doing everything it can to help quell national outrage in the event that through voter intimidation and faulty felon lists Jeb successfully steals Florida for his brother again.




Tags: General 2008 (all tags)

Display:
Permalink :: 19 Comments :: Post a Comment


Gallup (none / 0)

Chris,

Who owns Gallup?  Always follow the money....

by global yokel on Tue Oct 26, 2004 at 01:00:05 PM EST

Re: Gallup (none / 0)

Bascially CNN and USA Today. Hard to imagine that Gallup would survive if they didn't have deals with those two outfits.

Which gets me thinking...

by Chris Bowers on Tue Oct 26, 2004 at 01:14:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Bwa-ha-ha (none / 0)

Party men.

Do we know if they normalized to these party ID numbers or if they sampled people with these party ID numbers?

by HumptyDumpty on Tue Oct 26, 2004 at 01:01:07 PM EST

Problem (none / 0)

The problem is that the media is only reporting this lead. They aren't pointing out that Gallup is so tragically misguided in their polling.
by sharris0512 on Tue Oct 26, 2004 at 01:07:05 PM EST

FLA 2002 (none / 0)

What was the party breakdown in Jeb's 2002 race?  Anybody know?
by BigModerate on Tue Oct 26, 2004 at 01:09:27 PM EST

Re: FLA 2002 (none / 0)

Good Point
by yitbos96bb on Tue Oct 26, 2004 at 04:25:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The Gallup site... (none / 0)

...has an "editor's blog" where they accept comments. I can't find any readers' comments actually posted, so they may just toss 'em down the memory hole.

But, it might help if Gallup got a whole shitload of reasoned criticism about their flawed analysis.

Just a thought.

by Toadvine on Tue Oct 26, 2004 at 01:10:36 PM EST

Nutheads (none / 0)

That's just bogus, Gallup has their head in their ass. There are way more Dems in FL than Repubs.

Anyway, Gallup nailed 2002 with their late polling, saying that GOP would be stronger in turnout, so, they are probably sticking with that formula until it's proved wrong.

by Jerome Armstrong on Tue Oct 26, 2004 at 01:20:03 PM EST

Re: Nutheads (none / 0)

But that's the question, isn't it?  Will turnout look like 2000, 2002, or something else?
by BigModerate on Tue Oct 26, 2004 at 01:21:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Bush's numbers in FLA (none / 0)

If you look at Bush's number in All the FL polls, he's at 47.5.
That's including Gallop's outlier of 51.  Without Gallop, W is
at 47.  That's not a winning number for an incumbant!  
by boulderfreak on Tue Oct 26, 2004 at 01:27:13 PM EST

So Gallup really shows Kerry ahead! (5.00 / 1)

Assume that if Kerry beats the distribution in the 2000 Florida exit poll data he is ahead. As Chris has pointed out, party ID in that poll was Dem 40%, Rep 38%, Independents 22%. And they voted in the following pattern, according to the exit poll

           Bush    Gore
Dems        13       86
Repub       91        8
Ind         46       47    

Now apply that breakdown to Gallup's skewed sample and you would get the following percentage result (for likely voters):

Bush  53.5%
Kerry 43.5%

So the fact that Gallup's figures are "only" 51-43 suggests that Bush may have actually lost ground relative to 2000, in which case Kerry is ahead!!

There are lies, damned lies, and then there's Gallup.

by al1 on Tue Oct 26, 2004 at 01:37:25 PM EST

Well-buttered bread, I think (none / 0)

If you go to the Gallup website, you'll find that it's a corporation with many interests now, not the one-man operation George Gallup started in Princeton NJ in 1935, after a stint as an ad man at Young and Rubicam in NY.  Gallup's first success was correctly predicting Roosevelt's win "in a walk" in 1936 -- against conventional wisdom.  

For more info about the early days, go to http://www.capitalcentury.com/1935.html

Fast forward to 2004 and the "About Gallup" page at Gallup's corporate website.  We now have the Gallup Poll, a management consultancy; "Gallup University" with its MBA program and business models; and a Gallup Press (now featuring a "Positive Strategies" book titled "How Full Is Your Bucket?").

Which side butters Gallup's bread?  

Caveat:  They are headquartered in Palmer Square in Princeton, my place of residence and voting before coming out here to the fresh air, and I can tell you they also live in the midst of Volvos and sushi, and would scorn the jars of peanut butter John Kerry so cherishes.  So much for stereotypes...!

by Bean on Tue Oct 26, 2004 at 01:45:53 PM EST

Re: Well-buttered bread, I think (none / 0)

Mmm....Peanut Butter.
by yitbos96bb on Tue Oct 26, 2004 at 04:29:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Florida 2002 (none / 0)

You can't really compare this election to 2002. Remember, Jeb ran against a relative newcomer, Bill McBride. While I thought Mr. McBride was a nice guy, he had little to no experience or name recognition outside the Tampa area. Had Reno won the primary, we might have seen a closer election. I don't think the democrats were motivated to turn out in 2002. But based on my own canvassing, they ARE motivated for this election, especially among the African Americans who were disenfranchised in 2000. Even though I am not a Jeb Bush fan, he is not nearly as bad as George Bush. At least he has a brain.

I believe Florida will go for Kerry this year and I doubt it will be as close as the last one.

by rian90 on Tue Oct 26, 2004 at 01:52:56 PM EST

Re: Florida 2002 (none / 0)

Also, 9-11 really helped Jeb alot.  1) People supported him because of his relation to the President who was EXTREMELY POPULAR at the time and 2) Democrats forgot the anger they had and tried to help pull the country together.  From that they got lied too, their children were shipped off to war, and the popular president blew his lead like his father before him.  

 

by yitbos96bb on Tue Oct 26, 2004 at 04:31:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Registration numbers (none / 0)

Granted, turnout figures and registration figures don't exactly coorelate, but according to the Florida Division of Elections as of October 4, 41.2 percent of the state's registered voters are Democrats, compared to 37.7 percent Republican and 18.3 Independent, with a smattering of others thrown in there.  How Gallup has turned into such a screwy outfit I'll never know.  Gallup's latest snafu
by timkelly on Tue Oct 26, 2004 at 03:22:21 PM EST

Florida 2004 (none / 0)

I've lived in Florida since the 1940s. At one time you had to be a Democrat or there was no one on the ballot for you to vote for in the Primaries. The Republicans are a product of northerners migrating to the south. The 2000 theft of the election still has many of us pissed at the administration. There has been a lot of voter registration drives and challenges to the Republican inspired felons lists. They will not get away with it again without a real fight on their hands. I don't think it is going to be nearly as close as the polls say. The Kerry yard signs are 10 to one here in St. Petersburg. Bush's radical stand on social security and his sell out to the pharmacutial companies has pretty much done him with the older, voting public in Florida.
by Lowell on Tue Oct 26, 2004 at 03:26:10 PM EST

Re: Florida 2004 (none / 0)

The Republicans in Florida aren't only a product of northern migration; there was also a massive migration of conservative, racist Democrats to the Repugs in the wake of the civil rights movement (the rotten fruit of Goldwater's "Southern Strategy"), and the influx of right-wing Cubans after Castro's coup.
Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama for President! Beat McCain!
by Alex on Tue Oct 26, 2004 at 05:18:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Two comments (none / 0)

  1. I think there a kind of casino atmosphere to these polls. If you have ten polling organizations, and one gets the election result dead on, then we are told to think they have a "hot hand" or some kind of superior method. Maybe they were just lucky. if the race is 49-49-1 with one percent in flux then what good is a poll with a margin of error of 3%?

  2. Most of the polls underrepresent democrats because their "science" doesn't allow them to distinguish between general and mid-term elections. The average republican is more disciplined and therefore more likely to vote in a so-called off-year election. You have to move heavan and earth to get the democratic base to get to the poll, even in a Ragnarok election like this one. Heck, you can't even get stalwart lefties to vote tactically as in the Nader voters in 2000! Moderate republicans and "true" conservatives were knifed in the back by George W. Nixon for four years, and still they stay with the party. That is discipline.

Which is also why even though the democrats are now the majority party, the wont be able to take the house until 2008. There is no way in hell the "P.Diddy" voter will even show up in '06!
by Paul Goodman on Tue Oct 26, 2004 at 07:22:58 PM EST


You are not logged in.

In order to post a comment, you must be logged in. If you have a member account, please log in to comment.

If not, you can make an account right here. It's quick and free.

Login
Username:

Password: