MyDD :: Kerry Holds a Large Lead in Iowa

Kerry Holds a Large Lead in Iowa

by Chris Bowers, Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 02:16:34 PM EST

In actual votes. With at least 7% of the vote in, right now Kerry holds a sizable lead on Bush:

Ballots Returned    %
RNC    28824	28.2
DNC    51706	50.6
IND    21590	21.1
Total 102120	100.0

According to the latest Survey USA poll from Iowa, which showed Bush leading 51-45, Party ID like this would translate into the following vote totals:

      Bush    Kerry
RNC   27095    1729
DNC    4343   47363
IND   10579    9931
Total 42017   59023
%      41.1    57.8

I like the way this looks. With early vote numbers like these, Kerry could lose to Bush on Election Day by more than 1%, even after the undecideds break in Kerry's favor, and still win the state. The polls in Iowa may not look great (although the latest, conductd by an in-state organization, shows Kerry leading 46-45), but we have time to make that up. Right now, Kerry is building a large lead due to Democratic strength in early voting.

Tags: General 2008 (all tags)

Permalink :: 9 Comments :: Post a Comment

That's what happened last time! (none / 0)

I believe Bush won Election Day voting in Iowa in 2000-- but not enough to overcome Gore's lead in early votes. Exciting news!

by accommodatingly on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 03:19:20 PM EST

Re: That's what happened last time! (none / 0)

Actually, i THINK the opposite happened...gore won on election day after trailing in early voting.Not quite sure though

by tommy on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 03:24:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: That's what happened last time! (none / 0)

Compared to 2000

In 2000, results were as follows

Absentee ballots
R - 107000
D - 105000
I - 59000

Gore - 141000
Bush - 130000

On election day, Bush outpolled Gore by 7000 but still lost by 4000.

Dem ballots are up a lot from 2000, question is are these existing voters or new voters. Some evidence is that they are new voters ie Johnson County - Iowa City - U of I up heavily. Gore led by 13000, this year Kerry may outpoll by 20000 or more.

by citydude2000 on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 03:41:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: That's what happened last time! (none / 0)

So here we see that the GOTV efforts really work. Dems outscoure Reps heavily; but as important: Indies also outscoure the Reps in relative numbers when compared to abs.ball.nmbrs of 2000.
Sign enough for me for a victory.

by pleunis67 on Sun Oct 24, 2004 at 02:34:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: That's what happened last time! (none / 0)

I think you may be thinking FLorida. Bush beat Gore on Early Balloting (and Jeb stuffing boxes) and Gore trounced him on Election Day. If that holds true, life will be good.

by yitbos96bb on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 04:40:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: That's what happened last time! (none / 0)

I think I know what you have in mind and it might have been the primary, where M. Whouley saw that Gore was trailing and at 4 pm sent people out to Gore precincts and got them to the polls.

by Ono on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 04:43:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Download this song, and we'll TROUNCE Bush in Iowa (none / 0)

Anti-war. Anti-lies. Anti-Bush. Pro-truth.

Please visit www.ranzorising.com, download the song, support Art Small, and we'll put these numbers in Iowa through the roof.

by ranzo on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 05:09:48 PM EST

Iowa, Wisconsin and Minnesota early next week (none / 0)

Kerry will keep up the pressure on Bush early next week, as Bush appears out west in traditional GOP states:

From JohnKerry.com, here is what appears to a partial schedule for Sunday through Thursdayday:

Sunday, October 24

Boca Raton, FL : Rally with John Kerry
Dayton, OH : Rally with John Edwards
Harrisburg, PA : Town Hall with Elizabeth Edwards
Lima, OH : Rally to Welcome John Edwards

Monday, October 25

Anoka, MN : Town Hall Meeting on Security with Elizabeth Edwards
Dover, NH : Rally with John Kerry
Dubuque, IA : Rally with John Edwards
Green Bay, WI : Rally with John Kerry
Miami, FL : Rally with President Bill Clinton
Ottumwa, IA : Rally with Elizabeth Edwards
Philadelphia, PA : Rally with John Kerry and President Bill Clinton
Racine, WI : Rally with John Edwards
Toledo, OH : Rally with John Edwards
Warren, MI : Rally with John Kerry

Tuesday, October 26

Albuquerque, NM : Rally with John Kerry
Mason City, IA : Town Hall with Elizabeth Edwards
Minneapolis, MN : Rally with John Edwards

Wednesday, October 27

Rochester, MN : Rally with John Kerry

Thursday, October 28

Madison, WI : Rally with John Kerry

Partial Bush Schedule from hell.com:

Sunday, October 24

Alamogordo, New Mexico: Victory '04 Rally with President Bush

Monday, October 25

Wilmington, Ohio : Vice President and Mrs. Cheney to Host BC '04 Town Hall Meeting
Miami, Florida : Jenna and Barbara Bush Make Remarks at a Miami BC '04 Volunteer Appreciation Event
Palm Beach, Florida : Jenna and Barbara Bush Make Remarks at a Palm Beach Bush-Cheney '04 Volunteer Appreciation Event
Tallahassee, Florida : Jenna and Barbara Bush Make Remarks at a `W Stands for Women' Rally
Greeley, Colorado : Victory '04 Rally with President Bush
Council Bluffs, Iowa : Rally with President Bush
Davenport, Iowa : Victory '04 Rally with President Bush

Tuesday, October 26

Onalaska, Wisconsin : President Bush Delivers Remarks
Richland Center, Wisconsin : Focus on the Economy with President Bush
Cuba City, Wisconsin : Victory '04 Rally with President Bush
Dubuque, Iowa : Victory '04 Rally with President Bush

Wednesday, October 27

Lancaster County, Pennsylvania : Victory '04 Rally with President Bush
Youngstown, Ohio : Victory '04 Rally with President Bush
Findlay, Ohio : Victory '04 Rally with President Bush
Detroit, Michigan : Victory '04 Rally with President Bush

by shlenny on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 05:20:07 PM EST

Iowa (none / 0)

Bush did outpoll Gore on Election Day. The Dem party in Iowa is one of the most organized in the Country. Johnson County, where I am, will easily top the 13000 lead Gore got.

by CVDem on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 05:24:24 PM EST

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