MyDD :: The Battle for Nevada

The Battle for Nevada

by Chris Bowers, Wed Oct 20, 2004 at 12:40:09 PM EST

Polls out of Nevada have been surprisingly poor, with Bush typically up 4 points and hovering right at 50%. I expected more from Nevada, and thought that this year it might even have a pro-DNC partisan index.

Well, forget the polls. In the only poll that matters, either there is a toss up or Kerry is leading in Nevada:

If three days of early voting can constitute a trend, Democrats think the beginning of the election in Nevada bodes well for a John Kerry victory.

In Clark County, Democrats voted in greater numbers than Republicans on each of the first three days of the 14-day early voting period. Overall, Democrats had a lead of 2,104 voters.

Democrats increased turnout on each of the days, edging Republicans 45 to 41 percent Saturday, 45 to 40 percent Sunday and 46 to 40 percent Monday.

"We don't traditionally vote early," Kerry campaign spokesman Sean Smith said of Democrats. "Our internal polling showed that we would do better with voters on Election Day, so we think this is a very good start for us."

Democratic voters outnumber Republicans by 57,000 in Clark County, according to registration for all eligible voters. Among active voters, the edge for Democrats is 43,000.

The Kerry campaign strategy aims at winning Clark County by 9 percent in order to offset the huge Republican advantage throughout 15 rural Nevada counties and a sizable advantage for the GOP in Washoe County.

Washoe County records also showed a good turnout by Democrats. At the county's only early-vote site, Democrats outnumbered Republican voters 387 to 312, according to Saturday totals.

In Nevada in 2000, Republicans made up 38% of the electorate, Democrats made up 37%, and independents made up 25%. Vote by Party ID broke down as follows:

     Gore  Bush
DNC   79    19
RNC   14    84
IND   45    43

In 2000, these Party ID exit polls were extremely accurate, as they put Gore's total vote at 45.80% (it actually was 45.98%) and Bush at 49.7% (it actually was 49.52%). With a breakdown of 46% Democrat, 40% Republican and 14% Independent, Gore would have narrowed the gap to just 48.24% to 48.36%. Remember, that is with a much stronger Nader attracting large numbers of Democrats, and in an exit poll that just slightly overstated Bush's margin over Gore.

We are in the game in toss-up Nevada, thanks significantly to an excellent GOTV effort. Kerry does not yet seem to have the 9% edge he needs in Clark County to win the state, but since he is leading in Washoe County, that might not matter. It is tight, tight in battleground Nevada.

Tags: General 2008 (all tags)

Permalink :: 11 Comments :: Post a Comment

nv (none / 0)

Thanks for noticing. But don't be misled by those numbers.

First, there are a lot of registered Ds who are voting for Bush (and a good number of Rs voting for Kerry), and those numbers are not vote totals but numbers of voters based on party reg.

And as you point out, we need a bigger margin in Clark than those #s would suggest if we are to carry the state.

Point being we're running here like we're 10 points down. We've been getting a fantastic # of volunteers from CA and other states; anyone who wants to come to Vegas for a weekend (or week) to help with GOTV ...please do. You can sign up on johnkerry.com

by desmoulins on Wed Oct 20, 2004 at 01:03:14 PM EST

Re: nv (none / 0)

It's still tight! We need the large margin in the South to balance out the cow counties, they will crush Kerry. We know in the north that the objective is GOTV, GOTV, GOTV. Whatever we can do to keep that margin as tight as possible!

The Washoe numbers look good but will only remain good if we keep up the effort. What has not been released yet is how many absentee mail ballots have come in, this is where the Republicians excell in getting out their vote.

Having said that, In the north I have 'felt' a sense of mood change since the Michael Moore visit about a week ago. (Biggest political event in county history, and people PAID to get in!) Since then, the Republicians seem more edgy, wanting to pick a fight, pulling yard signs, etc. I sense fear among the Bush supporters. Maybe it's just illusion but this is what I am sensing.

We seem to be more determined, it's a marathon and we are working it. Hopefully...

Kerry visits Friday. I'm interested in the crowd mood then.

Back to the Race.

by NvDem on Wed Oct 20, 2004 at 08:22:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Nevada is a very tight battleground! (none / 0)

Yes, Nevada is a very tight battleground, but I want to reassure everyone that Kerry has a really good fighting chance for our five electoral votes!

Clark County is awash with anti-Bush sentiment. And although I have met some people who say they are too cynical or busy to take the time to do their civic duty and vote, most people I've talked to are going to vote, because they believe in democracy -- and also because most people here in Vegas are optimistic people! This is a gambler's society! We know that you can't win if you don't play! Look at it this way -- consider all the people who live here who think nothing of putting a dollar (or five or ten, or Oh Jesus!) into a video-poker machine at the local gas-station in the hopes of getting back something bigger than what they put in. And then think of how many of those will be willing to take a moment to cast their vote in the hopes of getting a better president -- I mean, wow, that's a huge jackpot right there, and unlike regular gambling, it doesn't even cost a dime! Especially with progressive and non-partisan groups mobilizing voters throughout the state, and with so many people aware of early-voting and absentee-voting options, there are going to be thousands of those kinds of optimistic people going for the Kerry jackpot!

Yes, there are a lot of conservatives in Nevada, I've met more than my fair share of them. But don't forget what else we have here: we have military families unhappy that their loved ones are having their limbs blown off and psyches scarred and lives ended in a war over non-existant WMD. We've got young folks upset about the economy and scared out of their wits about a draft. We've got an African-American population in North Las Vegas that will not abide being disenfranchised or harassed by anyone. And to top it off we've got a lot of disgruntled Republicans who could have sworn that trillion-dollar defecits and heavy-handed foreign policy are not what they voted for in 2000. (A footnote: this isn't the most active state in the union when it comes to the Green Party, but I've met a few Green Party members out here, and we all know that this is a swing state. I predict that Cobb will get less than half the Green vote in Nevada, with most Greens, like myself, voting for Kerry.)

Don't write us off yet! We might very well be glowing bluer than a smurf on November 2nd!

by Nevadangreen on Wed Oct 20, 2004 at 01:40:20 PM EST

Re: Nevada is a very tight battleground! (none / 0)

What, you don't want to house our nuclear waste in your backyard? Quel Shock!

by Loganpoppy on Wed Oct 20, 2004 at 02:48:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Kerry is big winner among children (none / 0)

Check out my journal for full details...
http://www.mydd.com/story/2004/10/20/14124/390

Summary - Kerry won the Nickelodeon contest this time. They have picked the last 4 presidents and 3 of 4 popular vote winners (guess which one didn't win the popular but still stole..I mean won the presidency). The best part is the numbers and the percentage of the votes. I see this as good news...

by yitbos96bb on Wed Oct 20, 2004 at 02:06:01 PM EST

Badnarik in NV (none / 0)

This is one of the States where polls not including Badnarik as an option are garbage.

Democratic Candidate, US Senate, Wisconsin 2012

by benmasel on Wed Oct 20, 2004 at 02:38:22 PM EST

The Battle for Nevada (none / 0)

I would strongly suggest not releasing the numbers in early voting, even if you're getting it from press reports.

I think we should push for laws making the release of early voting numbers illegal, if it isn't already. Part of stealing an election is KNOWING HOW MANY VOTES YOU NEED! Good news on early voting and voter registration is one thing, but we don't want to help the Republicans, if we can possibly help it. PLEASE DON'T LET THEM KNOW HOW MANY VOTES THEY NEED!

by Forsapphus on Wed Oct 20, 2004 at 02:41:25 PM EST

Re: The Battle for Nevada (none / 0)

Its note the Democrats who are releasing the numbers. The State does. They also release the names of those who have voted on a daily basis.

by desmoulins on Wed Oct 20, 2004 at 02:55:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Battle for Nevada (none / 0)

The state should not have the right to release the numbers of those who vote by party. I don't even like releasing their names. The law should be amended. The parties should not know how many votes they think they need.

by Forsapphus on Wed Oct 20, 2004 at 03:04:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Battle for Nevada (none / 0)

I strongly disagree. Without knowing this information, campaigns will continue to bombard (and therefore waste money) on voter contacts that are worthless. It actually makes more sense to release this data, and also generally helps Democrats know who it is THEY need to target to get their vote out, since, as we all know, when more people vote, Democrats win.

by Doug in Virginia on Wed Oct 20, 2004 at 03:11:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Battle for Nevada (none / 0)

I hope you're right that releasing the data helps Democrats. At least then, the parties can find out who has voted, and who hasn't.

The problem I'm having with what you're saying is that these are actual votes, not polls. Wouldn't the polling data be able to tell if the parties are wasting their time?

by Forsapphus on Wed Oct 20, 2004 at 03:26:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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