Zogby Battleground

by Chris Bowers, Tue Oct 19, 2004 at 06:02:55 PM EST

Maybe the wingers won't be complaining about the new Zogby numbers after all: 
    Kerry   Bush
OR   55.7   42.6
MN   54.2   43.1
WA   54.3   43.9
NM   53.6   44.1
MI   52.6   45.9
PA   51.8   46.1
NH   51.1   46.0
WI   51.3   47.5
IA   51.1   47.9
WV   45.8   48.6
AR   48.4   49.7
NV   45.9   49.8
FL   48.9   50.1
TN   47.8   50.3
OH   47.6   50.6
MO   47.6   50.7
Kerry looks very comfortable in OR, MN, WA, NM, MI, PA and NH, all of which show Bush, as the incumbent, completely out of contention barring a major October surprise. WI and IA are also very good, especially for a challenger (challengers over 51 always win). However, These numbers would lead to a 269-269 tie, as the undecided break in WV, but nowhere else, would push Kerry over the top.

On the plus side, if this is accurate, Kerry has all of the Gore states plus New Hampshire shored up, and can spend the significant majority of his resources trying to flipjust one other 2000 Bush state, all of which are very close. On the negative side, if this is accurate, Kerry comfortably wins the popular vote, but the electoral vote is tied and Bush wins in the House.

I'll see you on the barricades if that happens.




Tags: General 2008 (all tags)

Display:
Permalink :: 29 Comments :: Post a Comment


Wow (none / 0)

What do we make of the fact that OH and FL today had other polls putting Kerry up there, and now Zogby says we're slightly down?

Are these those "trend polls" that average over multiple days?  Maybe the trend still goes in our direction?

It's all the turnout, isn't it?  We've gotta WIN on the ground folks, everyone MUST take off work on Election Day and call, flush 'em to the polls, and harass until our people have voted!  OK, well, maybe not harass.

by Doug in Virginia on Tue Oct 19, 2004 at 06:13:19 PM EST

Ohio (none / 0)

A new ABC poll just showed Kerry ahead. Also, Zogby has actually consistently shown Kerry worse off in Ohio than other outfits.

As for Florida, only the IA poll showed Kerry comfortably ahead recently. This poll just shows it very close.

by Chris Bowers on Tue Oct 19, 2004 at 06:16:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ohio (none / 0)

"A new ABC poll just showed Kerry ahead."
Link?
by bushsucks on Tue Oct 19, 2004 at 06:43:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ohio (none / 0)

Nev-uh Mind! Found it. The link was front and center of ABCNews web site. Duh!
by bushsucks on Tue Oct 19, 2004 at 06:47:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Online poll (none / 0)

This poll was done by Zogby Interactive (and I actually participated in the poll). How accurate are these online polls considered to be by those in the know (meaning you, Chris, or Ruy Teixiera, etc)?
by Knuckles on Tue Oct 19, 2004 at 06:36:12 PM EST

Re: Online poll (none / 0)

I've participated in the last few of these.  Has anyone compared them to "traditional" polls?

by KTinOhio on Tue Oct 19, 2004 at 09:57:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Online poll (none / 0)

  1. About half of them seem to be middle of the pack of all other polls.
  2. About half of them seem to lean slightly towards Kerry.
  3. Ohio seems to lean strongly Bush.
  4. The number of undecideds is much lower (this may explain
#2).  This makes sense-if you volunteer for these polls, you are paying more attention, and are therefore less likely to be undecided.

Whether or not this means they are accurate or not, dunno.

by Geotpf on Wed Oct 20, 2004 at 01:59:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]

on the positive side (none / 0)

I think the momentum is clearly on the side of Kerry.  Compare the midwest numbers to those from a couple of weeks ago.  Don't forget about Colorado.  And as the prior comment suggested, I believe that Dems are going to turn out in droves.  I like the idea of flying under the radar until 11/2.
by shlenny on Tue Oct 19, 2004 at 06:40:38 PM EST

I guess (none / 0)

this is pretty much what was said, but Zogby notes that 6 of Kerry's 9 states are outside the MOE, while NONE of W.'s states are out the MOE. So Kerry is doing better in Gore states than Bush is doing in states he won in 2000.  
by jp2 on Tue Oct 19, 2004 at 06:46:31 PM EST

Internet Polls (none / 0)

I don't trust the Zogby Internet polls at all.  That being said, assuming the numbers posted are correct, I don't see how WV breaks for Kerry.  To get Kerry over Bush, the undecideds would have to break for Kerry by MORE THAN K-4.2%, B-1.4%.  Yes, I believe that undecideds will break for Kerry, but will he win more than 75% of them?  Probably not.
by BigModerate on Tue Oct 19, 2004 at 06:48:58 PM EST

Re: Internet Polls (none / 0)

IIRC, the break in past Presidential elections has been as high as 85-15, so yes, it's possible he could win more than 75%.
Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama for President! Beat McCain!
by Alex on Tue Oct 19, 2004 at 08:06:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Zogby (5.00 / 0)

One thing to keep in mind about this particular Zogby poll is that it was conducted over the period from Oct 13 to 18, so much of the polling comes from the period when the Mary Cheney distraction was having its biggest effect. During the earlier period Zogby had Kerry down by four in his Reuters poll and it only moved to a tie in the last couple of days. So my take is that the results are skewed a bit by that. The second thing to consider is that Kerry is not particularly close in any of the state he has and Bush is quite close in at least Florida and close in a number of others. Third, Zogby seems to have made a flat out prediction of a Kerry victory in the past two days, so assuming he keeps up with the results coming in (and I bet he does) he does not seem to be disturbed by them. Ohio is the only number that disturbs me very much and as others above have pointed out a new poll shows a Kerry lead of 3 in Ohio. That poll is based on more up to date material than Zogby's. I have the greatest respect for Zogby and I expect that his final battleground poll will show Kerry winning.
by herodotus on Tue Oct 19, 2004 at 06:50:33 PM EST

Re: Zogby (none / 0)

great point and further reason to remain positive!
by shlenny on Tue Oct 19, 2004 at 06:56:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby (none / 0)

That also means it was conducted immediately after the third debate.  I would have to think JK's performance in the debate would mean more than the Mary Cheney BS.

by KTinOhio on Tue Oct 19, 2004 at 09:55:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Zogby (none / 0)

The state numbers from Zogby provide grounds for optimism at one level. But they show a downtrend for Kerry from Zogby's last numbers of Oct. 6. Kerry then led in several "Bush 2000" states and was way up in the electoral vote. So comparing Zogby then to Zogby now, Kerry is losing, not gaining, ground. T.J.
by Pempel on Tue Oct 19, 2004 at 07:06:21 PM EST

Hoping for more input on this ... (none / 0)

Putting these numbers as is on the interactive map appears to put Kerry at 264 and Bush at 274.

Also, I am remembering the pollkatz study showing a Zogby 6 point pro-democrat bias. That may be far too broad a brush for this specific race, but more real information about where Zogby's results stand might help.

Barring any other major changes as has been said many times the winner will have to win 2 of the 3 among Penna, Ohio and Florida; and with Zogby saying here that AR also a very possible result flipper.

by leschwartz on Tue Oct 19, 2004 at 07:09:43 PM EST

Re: Hoping for more input on this ... (none / 0)

Poll of polls has the Zogby pro-Kerry bias at around 1.5%

http://pop.goringe.net/bias.html

Why not read Things I've Seen
by tis on Wed Oct 20, 2004 at 12:45:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hoping for more input on this ... (none / 0)

This assumes that the mean of the polls will approximate the actual vote.  Given the demographic changes we all expect this year - e.g., increased participation among younger voters and minorities - is this a valid assumption?

by KTinOhio on Wed Oct 20, 2004 at 12:50:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Colorado (none / 0)

If Colorado's Ammendment passes then it is possible, I think, for Kerry's split of CO's EVs to balance out WV.
by shlenny on Tue Oct 19, 2004 at 07:11:38 PM EST

Re: Colorado (none / 0)

Don't expect the amendment to pass, it doesn't really have a chance.  But don't discount Kerry winning the state outright either.  Depending on who you listen to the state is tied or Bush is ahead by no more than 5pts.  I tend to believe its closer to a tie.  In CO we did an awesome job at registering new voters.  If they show up CO could surprise.
by proudliberal on Tue Oct 19, 2004 at 09:29:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Colorado (none / 0)

Let's check out the numbers for Colorado, Arizona, North Carolina, and Virginia when they become available.  JK led by just over 1% in Colorado (per Zogby) two weeks ago.  He trailed in the other three states by 2-4%.

by KTinOhio on Tue Oct 19, 2004 at 09:59:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Zogby follow-on (none / 0)

http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-battleground04-an1019.html is the url for Zogby--registration required with WSJ. But bottom line is that Oct 6 poll by Zogby had Kerry winning in Nevada, Ohio, and Florid. Now Bush leads in all.
by Pempel on Tue Oct 19, 2004 at 07:12:54 PM EST

There are numbers for th WV poll now (none / 0)

http://www.washingtontimes.com/upi-breaking/20041019-022915-3387r.htm

B 47, K 45, N 2

by demomatt on Tue Oct 19, 2004 at 07:28:13 PM EST

CBS/NYT Poll (none / 0)

CBS news is reporting 47 bush, 45 Kerry and reporting that the total difference of 30 polls in October is 1.3%.  They are also reporting a low approval rating for Bush.  
by Wesc on Tue Oct 19, 2004 at 07:45:47 PM EST

what? me worry? (none / 0)

Arkansas -1.3% lag, 1.9 unsure?
Florida -1.2% lag, 1.0% undecided?
Ohio -3 lag with 1.9 undecided.
give the challenger a modest 2 for 1
break among undecided, that leaves
a little something to overcome.

um, can a good ground game
overcome a 2 point deficit in polls?
if not, why bother with one?
so are we going to have a
good ground game?

Tennessee -2.5% lag, 1.9% unsure.
sweet numbers for a state Kerry
hasn't visited in weeks and months.
no polling here for North Carolina
or Virginia, but take Tennessee
as a proxy -- it's damn close in
these Border States, can we
grab one out of three?

no polling here for Colorado, but
triangulate with sister states in
the Southwestern Strategy --
New Mexico AHEAD by 9.5%
with 2.3% undecided,
in Nevada we lag by only 3.9%
with a large 4.3% undecided.
figures suggesting Colorado
remains well within reach.

keep your refreshments of choice
at hand, we will win it.

by Woody on Tue Oct 19, 2004 at 08:02:03 PM EST

Re: what? me worry? (none / 0)

On average a challenger picks up 3 points in voting over the final national polls, so 2 points is very much within range.  But these aren't the final polls, and states polls don't have the good track record that national polls have.
by PonyFan on Tue Oct 19, 2004 at 08:08:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Gore vs Clinton (none / 0)

Simple plan to get 6, to 11, to as many as 17 EV in our camp, where they belong.

Commission Al Gore and recovering Bill to go do what it takes, in conservative strongholds, to essentially Run and Win in their respective State (again.) (TN 11 Al 6)

Friendly little competition, either one does it, and President Kerry 04 is said and done

Al at first glance would have the tougher sell, but Bill would get the sympathy and attraction quotient

Go!!!

by RF on Tue Oct 19, 2004 at 08:05:27 PM EST

Re: Gore vs Clinton (none / 0)

Should be (TN 11 AR 6)
by RF on Tue Oct 19, 2004 at 08:07:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Don't count on Colorado (none / 0)

The Colorado ref. is not likely to pass, I understand.  Let's get out there and beat the bushe....er, motivate some voters!

Darryl  pawnplay.com

by djholman on Tue Oct 19, 2004 at 08:58:17 PM EST


You are not logged in.

In order to post a comment, you must be logged in. If you have a member account, please log in to comment.

If not, you can make an account right here. It's quick and free.

Login
Username:

Password: