MyDD :: Electoral College Update

Electoral College Update

by Chris Bowers, Tue Oct 19, 2004 at 02:26:10 PM EST

There might be a trend here:

Electoral-Vote.com Kerry 284, Bush 247, 7 tied (October 19)
2.004k.com Kerry 289, Bush 232, 17 tied (October 19)
Race 2004.com Kerry 218, Bush 205, 115 too close to call (October 19)
Sam Wang: Kerry 300, Bush 238 (October 19)
Rassmussen 16-State Kerry 48.8, Bush 46.1 (October 19)
Slate Kerry 284, Bush 254 (October 19)
Mine Kerry 316, Bush 222 (October 19)

This is going to make it a little more difficult for Republicans to whine about the Zogby Battleground tracking tonight. My numbers are better for Kerry because I factor in the pro-challenger undecided break. As of 2:40 p.m., Kerry also leads 47.34-46.10 in a national poll constructed from the latest polls from every state.

Is it too late for an October surprise?

Tags: General 2008 (all tags)

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Polling (none / 0)

Our own internal polling here in the Progressive Strategy Center gives Kerry a 5 point margin in Florida (50% to 45%), with a margin of error of 3.5%. West Virginia, the race is a dead heat (47% to 47%).

These are major shifts in our polling before the debates, which showed Kerry down two in Florida and down six in West Virginia.

by sharris0512 on Tue Oct 19, 2004 at 02:31:22 PM EST

send to the media? (none / 0)

How about we pound this into the email boxes of Chris Matthews, CNN cranks, and whoever else keeps saying Bush is in the lead. I would say we do the same to Ron Fournier, who writes (inaccurate) AP articles on the horse race but I'm not sure he can read.

by DonBinTN on Tue Oct 19, 2004 at 02:38:37 PM EST

yeah, the media (none / 0)

two things:

1.) it will fun to watch the media focus on Gallup tonight (yeah, you, Chris "Hardhead" Mathews...you moron).

2.) Maybe we should try to keep this quiet for as long as possible. We don't want the GOP to use this to rally their base. We can call this Operation Trojan Horse.

by shlenny on Tue Oct 19, 2004 at 02:48:01 PM EST

Re: yeah, the media (none / 0)

I agree 100%

by yitbos96bb on Tue Oct 19, 2004 at 09:06:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

RealClearPolitics (R) shows narrow Kerry lead.... (none / 0)

On their front page, RCP lists the EC as 227-200 Bush leading. But their battleground toss-up states list consists of NM, OH, PA, WI, IA, and FL. Of those, NM is tied and they have Kerry leading in all except FL.

That'd make it 279-254 for Kerry, with NM's 5 a toss-up.

Bonus: in their zeal to claim battleground status for PA, note that they list PA's margin as 2.8 - a toss-up - but solidly Blue Minnesota's margin is only 2.4! Inconsistency? Cocooning? you decide...

by Silent E on Tue Oct 19, 2004 at 02:53:17 PM EST

Too late for October surprise? (none / 0)

It will never be too late while it's still October. But it may take one King Kong of a surprise to do much to the current movement toward Kerry.

by larryrant on Tue Oct 19, 2004 at 03:03:15 PM EST

Oct surprise (none / 0)

For an October surprise:

How about a large military assault? I read a report this morning about a tightening ring around Fallujah (sp). If they're desperate, and I'm sure they are, mightn't they risk a wag-the-dog ploy with the intention of reinforcing the impression that Bush is a 'war president?'

by sarany on Tue Oct 19, 2004 at 03:09:48 PM EST

Re: Oct surprise (none / 0)

I'm not sure they would even see it as a "risk". Just part of doing business in their world.

by larryrant on Tue Oct 19, 2004 at 03:14:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Oct surprise (none / 0)

I suspect that, as all else seems to be failing, they may concentrate on trying to demonize Terese Heinz Kerry. "Foreign billionaire who supported terrorism (that would be Nelson Mandela) has hypnotized Kerry."

Indeed, it strikes me as odd that they haven't been noticeably chipping away at her. Makes me wonder if they're holding 'something' back for just such a last minute emergency.

by AM on Tue Oct 19, 2004 at 03:15:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Oct surprise - Terror Threat (none / 0)

I think it will be a terror threat. No doubt. That's what they did after the Dem Convention to slow momentum.

Check out Yahoo! News
http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=544&u=/ap/20041019/ap_on_go_pr_wh/terror_threat_si lence_1&printer=1

by turnpikekid on Tue Oct 19, 2004 at 04:40:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Cheney speech today a new "surprise"? (none / 0)

Today, Dick Cheney gave a speech in Ohio in which he clearly was trying to scare the hell out of people. In essence, he warned that terrorists may try to use nuclear bombs on American cities and that Kerry isn't up to handling it. It was a shameful, fear-mongering speech, and I suspect it was but the first of several designed to scare wavering (swing) voters into voting Republican. Here's a link to the Washington Post story.

by Doofus on Tue Oct 19, 2004 at 03:18:25 PM EST

What else is new? (none / 0)

Just what, exactly, has the current administration done to enhance homeland security in the three years since 9/11?

Homeland security costs money, and we can't afford it. Have to keep cutting taxes on the millionaires, you know...

by KTinOhio on Tue Oct 19, 2004 at 03:40:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

new "surprise"? (none / 0)

That's pretty much what I wrote for my guess in Name the October Surprise (whatever happened to that site anyways?).

by patch in bklyn on Tue Oct 19, 2004 at 03:42:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Cheney speech today (none / 0)

I love how they accuse us of spreading fear about the Flu shots...What a bunch of Hypocrites.

by yitbos96bb on Tue Oct 19, 2004 at 09:09:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

October surprises (none / 0)

I can think of only two possibilities that would be anywhere near certain to save Bush: capturing Osama bin Laden, or another major terrorist attack on U.S. soil. Now, if I were an Al-Qaeda planner, I would certainly contemplate the latter, since Bush is such an asset to the international radical Islamist movement. It could backfire, though, because it would represent a failure of Bush's homeland security policy, and refute the "fight them there so we don't have to fight them here" B.S. rationale for the Iraq war. On the other hand, if I were an Iraqi guerrilla leader who didn't give a damn about bin Laden's international movement and just wanted the U.S. military out of my country, I might hit the Green Zone with something like the truck bomb that demolished the Marine barracks in Beirut; a big attack there would probably hurt Bush. I just hope the Kerry camp has good responses in reserve for all of these eventualities.

Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama for President! Beat McCain!

by Alex on Tue Oct 19, 2004 at 03:37:37 PM EST

Re: October surprises (none / 0)

I suspect that if they don't have a big card on tap, they might 'make do' with a constellation of numerous small but devastating (they hope) attacks.

-questioning Kerry's discharge
-Theresa
-terrorist alerts
-a ground troop assault in Fallujah
-who knows what else?

Heck, I think they'll try any and all of these no matter what else they might have.

by sarany on Tue Oct 19, 2004 at 03:43:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: October surprises (none / 0)

Atrios and Digby have been talking about potential "surprises" and I agree with them that the most likely would be a surprise Bush visit to Iraq. He would dominate news coverage for 2-3 days at the most important time of the election cycle.

by danielj on Tue Oct 19, 2004 at 03:43:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: October surprises: Kerry's Ramstein visit (none / 0)

My idea for a Kerry campaign response or initiative would be to visit the military hospital at Ramstein base in Germany where the US wounded soldiers from Iraq are. Take a plane full of journalists with you and take care one of them asks the question: 'are you planning to fly ahead to Iraq?', the answer must be 'no comment'.
I'll bet the Dems are watching AF1 closely, and when it leaves secretly towards Iraq, the Ramstein plan can be executed publicly.
Could make for some nice tv. And it's only a 7 hours flight. Could energize the Dems abroad also.

by pleunis67 on Tue Oct 19, 2004 at 07:27:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: October surprises: Kerry's Ramstein visit (none / 0)

Remember, as the nominee, Kerry is protected by the Secret Service. It's unlikely they could execute an "under the radar" visit to a US military installation overseas without tipping off the WH in some way, due to the SS's draconian advance-planning requirements these days.

by Dan Hartung on Tue Oct 19, 2004 at 07:41:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

polls - election (none / 0)

The most useful aspect of polls that look good for Kerry is that they make it harder for the Repugs to steal the election. I am sticking with my Chaos Theory; Rove and his brownshirts will create such confusion, controversey, and chaos that the legitmacy of the election will be in doubt. He will then try to win the subsequent slugfest in the courts. It could be a very long while before a winner is declared, and I anticipate all sorts of ugliness, particularly in Florida. The Democrats need to be out there at every polling place with video gear to document the shitstorm. Those videos could prove invaluable in court proceedings.

At this point I think the DNC ought to commit a major portion of their resources to insuring that we get something that resembles an honest election. Putting a lot more effort and money into trying to convince a few security moms and soccer dads to vote for Kerry/Edwards is not going to pay off if the votes are not counted properly. The Democrats won all four debates, they are leading in the endorsements category, and they are doing much better in the GOTV department. To a large extent the battle has been won, but we are going to lose the war if all the ballots are not counted.

by global yokel on Tue Oct 19, 2004 at 03:55:09 PM EST

There might be a trend here (none / 0)

Yes, the trend is that the Democratic sites post pro-Kerry breakdowns, and the pro-Bush sites post pro-Bush breakdowns.

See, e.g.,

Gerry Daly (http://www.dalythoughts.com/ecb.htm): B-222, K-207
Election Projection (http://www.electionprojection.com/elections2004.html): B-274, K-264
RealClearPolitics (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/): B-227, K-220

The polls are what they are. At least half a dozen states are within the margin of error. So we can consider the election tied, and it probably will be until election day.

by BigModerate on Tue Oct 19, 2004 at 05:25:13 PM EST

What??? (none / 0)

This is what I found on the bushie website. So Kerry has given the election to bush?????? In yet another sign of the President's momentum, the Kerry campaign pulled its advertising out of West Virginia on Friday, making it the latest in a string of their retreats from former "battleground" states. In fact, the Kerry campaign and its allies have now conceded victory to the President by pulling out of Arizona, Arkansas, Louisiana, Missouri, North Carolina, and Virginia, after they combined to spend $36 million on ads in those states.

by liberalforever on Tue Oct 19, 2004 at 05:36:40 PM EST

Can I play, too? (none / 0)

I get Kerry 282, Bush 256

(using electoral-college.com's data as of Tuesday morning)

http://www.pollkatz.homestead.com/files/electoral-landscape.GIF

by drlimerick on Tue Oct 19, 2004 at 05:53:38 PM EST

October Surprise (none / 0)

DON'T EVEN JOKE ABOUT THAT!!!!

by yitbos96bb on Tue Oct 19, 2004 at 09:06:01 PM EST

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