MyDD :: A Winning Strategy

A Winning Strategy

by Chris Bowers, Sun Oct 17, 2004 at 09:17:53 PM EST

2% of the vote has already been cast in the election. Tomorrow, another 1% will be cast. By the time it is finally November 2nd, around 20% will already have been banked.

The early indications form Iowa are that we have taken a sizable lead there. If the internals of the latest Newsweek poll are to be believed (and considering some of the internals, that is a big if), we will be taking a sizable lead nationwide as well. Ruy Teixeira has the details:

Newsweek provides a number of interesting subgroup horse race numbers for their 3-way RV matchup that are worth taking a look at:

1. Independents favor Kerry/Edwards by 11 points, 51-40.

2. First-time voters favor Kerry/Edwards by 21, 57-36.

3. Early voters favor Kerry/Edwards by 9, 52-43.

4. Young voters (18-29) favor Kerry/Edwards by 9, 50-40, and seniors (65+) favor Kerry/Edwards by 15, 54-39.

5. Men favor K/E by 50-46 and women favor Bush-Cheney by 49-43.

Numbers 1, 2 and 3 indicate that the Democratic election strategy is working perfectly. We are appealing to more independents, banking more votes before Election Day, and winning big among newly registered voters. This is a formula for success and it is very exciting indeed.

Of course, before any champagne is opened, keep in mind that the poll has Kerry winning among men and Bush winning among women, so the whole thing might just be a piece of junk.

Tags: General 2008 (all tags)

Permalink :: 19 Comments :: Post a Comment

I will believe it on Nov 3` (none / 0)

I still don't buy number 5. I will believe it if that holds up on Nov 3.

by yitbos96bb on Sun Oct 17, 2004 at 09:39:40 PM EST

Re: I will believe it on Nov 3` (none / 0)

Men favor K/E by 50-46 and women favor Bush-Cheney by 49-43.

Neither do I.

by Jerome Armstrong on Sun Oct 17, 2004 at 11:57:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I will believe it on Nov 3` (none / 0)

Yeah, that's crazy and totally ahistorical.

by Matt Stoller on Mon Oct 18, 2004 at 12:49:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]

election (none / 0)

Those internals make it real clear why the GOP wants to suppress voter turnout.

by global yokel on Sun Oct 17, 2004 at 09:47:23 PM EST

No. 5 (none / 0)

Is clearly wrong. Maybe it's a typo or maybe their poll is completely worthless. In any case, I'm not taking it seriously.

Now Zogby saying that Kerry polled better than Bush yesterday, that I will believe.

by PonyFan on Sun Oct 17, 2004 at 09:51:21 PM EST

Newsweek Poll (none / 0)

Yeah - I saw that number on Men and Women and assumed it was a typo. I do like the numbers on early voters. I suspect the main reason newly registered voters break heavily our way is that groups like ACT have signed up big numbers of Dems and Indies in the swing -states. That being the case, I bet new registrants break our way even more dramatically in swing states than nationally. These groups are now working full-time to get them to the polls and I expect they will do a good job.

by JBPitt on Sun Oct 17, 2004 at 09:57:08 PM EST

early returns? (none / 0)

I don't see how you can conclude that.

by Matt Stoller on Sun Oct 17, 2004 at 10:28:17 PM EST

OT: Why is Bush taking a day off from campaigning? (none / 0)

This has been nagging me all day, and I am not sure I understand. Why would the Bush campaign take him off the trail with 16 days to go and the race this tight?

Anyone else notice this?

by Marvin42 on Sun Oct 17, 2004 at 10:41:02 PM EST

Why is Bush taking a day off from campaigning? (none / 0)

If i recall currently Bush took election day in 2000 off, while Gore was calling into talk shows all day,etc.

I guess Bush gets kinda lazy and loves those vacations.

Tennesseans for Feingold

by ben114 on Sun Oct 17, 2004 at 10:50:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Why is Bush taking a day off from campaigning? (none / 0)

The other interesting this is (I don't know if this has been blogged anywhere, just got an email about it) that Bush hasn't been in Ohio since the 4th of October. What's up with that?

The suggestion is that Bush's numbers go down when he visits Ohio!

by Jerome Armstrong on Sun Oct 17, 2004 at 11:59:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Why is Bush taking a day off from campaigning? (none / 0)

I don't know where else he could go. Honestly, you can only mine for the gold that is in those dem dar mountains... he has been to every major population area, minor population area and village that could break his way and it's not clear if he can pick off anyone in Cuyahoga or Franklin counties (Cleveland and Columbus) that hasn't already made up there mind about Bush, The thing that no one talks about is even before 2004 he came to Ohio almost 20 times before hand. If he hasn't mobilized his base by now in Ohio he never will. He's better to spend his time in Florida given that he needs Ohio and Florida to win since I think Pennsylvania is in Kerry's column (and I think if the GOTV works in Ohio, Kerry wins that as well, but that is a different story).

For what it's worth, Kerry is going back to those "Bush counties" in Ohio and getting quite a reception (thousands of people in Xenia yesterday, which must have been exciting for a town best known as the location of Gummo and tornados). He did the same in Wisconsin yesterday and the strategy is clear... energize those in the area and keep those numbers down.

by Loganpoppy on Mon Oct 18, 2004 at 12:49:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: OT: Why is Bush taking a day off (none / 0)

For the same reason a banner hung on an aircraft carrier saying "mission accomplished". These people have "God" and the Pope on their side. What can go wrong? Whats me worry? Let them take the day off. That could mean the difference between winning and loosing.

by Kramer on Sun Oct 17, 2004 at 11:18:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

GOP Voters - Poll? (none / 0)

I'd really like to see some polling data on a demographic that isn't getting enough attention: registered Republicans who plan to vote for Kerry, or are so disgusted with Bush that they will just stay home on Nov. 2. Perhaps the polling firms could design a survey that samples this segment of the electorate? My gut instinct tells me that this might be the Mother of All Internals....

by global yokel on Sun Oct 17, 2004 at 11:30:43 PM EST

OT: Endorsements (none / 0)

I am embarrassed but my home paper the Chicago Tribune endorsed Bush. Not that this should surprise too much (nor does it worry me since Kerry will win Illinois...If he doesn't, then I will assume Kerry already lost when they read that announcement or Hell froze over), since the Tribune Company is made up of a bunch of GOP fasicists who support almost every right winger out there. I swear if they endorse Keyes over Obama, I may cancel my subscription. I don't care if they are wingnuts, you don't endorse a carpetbagger over a local pol, unless the local pol is a total crook or scumbag, both of which we know Obama is not. There entire editorial board (except maybe Page) needs to be fired and replaced with some people who aren't just promoting the corporate agenda. No wonder all the White Sox fans hate the tribune.

by yitbos96bb on Mon Oct 18, 2004 at 12:15:41 AM EST

Do we want to advertise Iowa early voting results? (none / 0)

It's encouraging for Dems, but could also backfire by giving lazy Dem voters a reason to stay home, and could induce Repug voters to vote in order to catch up.

by Conshieguy on Mon Oct 18, 2004 at 05:57:59 AM EST

Re: Do we want to advertise Iowa early voting resu (none / 0)

We'd rather believe we are in a little political junkie bubble here and get to say things as we see them.

by Jerome Armstrong on Mon Oct 18, 2004 at 10:14:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]

early voting (none / 0)

One problem with early voting is the inevitable exit polls that will hound all the early voters and the spin that two sides will put on them. Watch for the networks to start reporting these exit results. This is probably a good reason for both sides to get their guys to the early polls early so they could try to hype the results.