MyDD :: Kerry Up Big in Iowa

Kerry Up Big in Iowa

by Chris Bowers, Mon Oct 11, 2004 at 01:11:39 AM EST

Iowa is the #2 pickup opportunity for Bush, behind only Wisconsin. A big Kerry lead in Iowa makes things difficult for Bush, and a big lead in Iowa is exactly what Kerry has. Best of all, the lead is in the only poll that matters:

Kerry's team, aided by the state party, has put a huge effort into banking votes before Nov. 2 through Iowa's early voting program, which began on Sept. 23.

As of the middle of last week, about 270,000 Iowans had requested absentee ballots, Culver said. State Democratic Party officials say Democrats hold a 2 to 1 edge in those requests and an even larger advantage among those who have returned ballots.

Republicans argue that Democrats are just banking votes from Democrats who otherwise would show up at the polls, and that they have adopted a different tactic in the ground war, which is to limit their efforts on absentee ballots to GOP voters who are not likely to vote on Election Day.

"They are going to exceed us in pretty good numbers on the absentees," said state Senate President Jeff Lamberti (R). "We are taking another strategy and one we believe in. But you do see those numbers, and it does give you some concern about who they are turning out." Vilsack said the Democratic Party's canvassing suggests that as many as 40,000 Democratic absentee voters would not otherwise have voted were it not for the early voting option.

I hope this effort is being matched in other swing states, because within the next week more than half of all swing states will begin voting. In fact, at least five percent of all votes will be cast less than seven days after the final debate on Wednesday. By November 1st, probably twenty percent of all votes will have been cast. Republicans can try to shrug off Democratic efforts on this front all they like, but the fact is that the more votes we bank now, the more resources we will have to GOTV over the final seventy-two hours and on Election Day itself. Further, considering the Incumbent Rule, Republicans strategists are insane for not making this a huge priority of their own.

Tags: General 2008 (all tags)

Permalink :: 8 Comments :: Post a Comment

Whistling past the graveyard (none / 0)

If there is a decent vote by mail effort on our side, the GOP is screwed. By mail, turnout increases greatly (ex: Oregon) and that only helps our side. Our experience in CA, starting with Feinstein who was our modern pioneer in her race with Huffington, is that it is much easier to put id'd votes in the bank. You can walk people through it. You id them, you send them pre-filled reg form to sign, you get them to request absentee ballots, you call them to close the loop. Bing, bang, boom, people who WORK FOR A LIVING have a chance to vote from the kitchen, and a lot more of them get to be part of our democracy.

This make the other side berzerk. Our people are the ones who are busiest and working hardest. They run from work to pick up the kids, buy food, help with homework, go to a second job, make dinner.

The GOP hates it when these people get to vote!

Go Iowa!

by Pacific John on Mon Oct 11, 2004 at 01:43:21 AM EST

Strange (none / 0)

I have always heard that absentee ballots and early balloting trends more toward the conservative, at least here in CA. Whenever the race is close and absentee ballots haven't yet been counted, you can be pretty sure that the Republican will gain votes as the absentee ballots results come in.

Is it different in Iowa, or is this really whistling past the graveyard as the previous poster implied?

by PonyFan on Mon Oct 11, 2004 at 02:43:54 AM EST

Well, I'm one of them (none / 0)

I registered this year (been living overseas for ages). Only when I found my old address was I able to register (federal law says last legal residence before going overseas is registration place).

Needless to say, my vote went straight Democrat.

by Saint Fnordius on Mon Oct 11, 2004 at 05:13:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Strange (none / 0)

It only depends on who is behind it. 'use to be that the old folks in O.C. were the absentees. Now, targeted vote by mail campaigns favor us.

by Pacific John on Mon Oct 11, 2004 at 10:04:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]

More is better! (none / 0)

Higher voter volume always favors the Democrats. When the turnout is lower, the Republicans do better. When the turnout is higher, the Democrats fare better. And with new registration numbers hitting record highs in many states, that must be a good sign for Kerry. New registration is hitting records in Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania and more. And these numbers are not counted in the polls "likely voters" category.