Thoughts, Quotes, Fact-Checking, Videos and More!

My first thoughts are that Kerry did well, but did not completely blow Bush out of the water. I think on balance Kerry helped himself, if for no other reason than he just look damned good standing next to Bush in that split screen. Bush looked cranky while Kerry looked stoic and engaged. If there really were worries out there about him being commander-in-chief, he did a lot to dispel them tonight. He also had at least two excellent, succinct, clear quotes about his position on Iraq that I hope are repeatedly endless for the next two days. I have those and others in the extended section.

Unlike a lot of pundits, I don't think this debate was anymore "substantive" than debates in other cycles. However, I was surprised by how heated it was. Bush actually was annoyed enough to frequently step away from his talking points. This was usually to his detriment, as his looked angrier and less focused than usual. That could really hurt him.

The rest of my thoughts are in the extended entry, and are a bit on the rambling side. If you want more, Oliver Willis has been kicking a lot of ass tonight. Remember to keep working at the spin, no matter how much you thought Kerry spoke for himself and how often pundits and polls say Kerry won. The right won't let up, and neither should we.

Kerry's Best Line:

I've had one position, one consistent position, that Saddam Hussein was a threat. There was a right way to disarm him and a wrong way. And the president chose the wrong way.

Doesn't get much clearer than that.

Close Second:

my position has been consistent:  Saddam Hussein is a threat.  He needed to be disarmed.  We needed to go to the U.N.  The president needed the authority to use force in order to be able to get him to do something, because he never did it without the threat of force. But we didn`t need to rush to war without a plan to win the peace.

I disagree with Kerry, but he summed it up very clearly and very succinctly, while denting the flip-flop meme.

Close Third

This president just -- I don't know if he sees what's really happened on there. But it's getting worse by the day. More soldiers killed in June than before. More in July than June. More in August than July. More in September than in August.

Kerry needed to more of this. This line was great--attack Bush simply byu pointing out reality.

Bush's worst line:

I`m trying to put a leash on them [his daughters].

What, like in Abu Ghraib?

Close Second:

Well, I think--listen, I fully agree that one should shift tactics, and we will, in Iraq.

Flip-flopper.

Bush's Biggest Lie:

The hardest part of the job is to know that I committed the troops in harm`s way and then do the best I can to provide comfort for the loved ones who lost a son or a daughter or a husband or wife.

Of course, he has not attended a single funeral of a soldier killed in Iraq or Afghanistan, to my knowledge.

 Bush on Nukes

Prior to 9/11, the Bush administration sought to slash funding for the Nunn-Lugar initiative, calling it a waste of money. Since 9/11, the administration has prudently reversed that posture, but despite his claim of a close personal relationship with Russian president Vladimir Putin, it's hard to find any evidence that Bush has made nuclear threat reduction a particularly high priority in U.S.-Russia relations. After the last Bush-Putin summit, the subject wasn't even mentioned in the two leaders' public declarations. Meanwhile, the administration's vaunted homeland security effort has placed an equally low priority on ensuring systematic inspection of cargos entering our country via sea, land, or air for nuclear materials.

Then again, his own statement in the debates on nukes wasn't very good either, although I don't think he said what he meant to say:

Actually, we`ve decreased funding for dealing with nuclear proliferation about 35 percent since I`ve been the president.

Not good dude. This should be in an ad.

Angry Bush

This was really bad for Bush. His petulance might have done serious damage to his national image. He also seems like he's trying to convince himself of what he was saying.

Bush on North Korea

"Charles Pritchard, formerly Secretary of State Colin Powell's top official dealing with North Korea, has warned for months that "the White House lacks an effective strategy to dissuade North Korea from building up its nuclear arms." Under Bush's watch, "North Korea's nuclear arsenal, which was once thought to number one or two weapons, appears to be growing substantially." According to Pritchard, the situation has deteriorated because "the administration has neither offered much of a carrot nor wielded a stick." The administration has refused to engage North Korea in direct negotiations or "put the North Koreans on notice that further developments will trigger economic sanctions or perhaps even military actions."

Bush's Mixed Messages:

Mixed Messages on Winning the War on Terror
"Can't Win The War On Terror"
Asked "Can we win [the war on terror]?" Bush said, "I don't think you can win it. But I think you can create conditions so that the - those who use terror as a tool are less acceptable in parts of the world." [NBC, "The Today Show," 8/30/04]

Mixed Messages on Osama Bin Laden

QUESTION: Do you want bin Laden dead?

BUSH: I want justice. And there's an old poster out west, that I recall, that said, "Wanted, Dead or Alive." [Bush Remarks, 9/17/01, emphasis added]

BUSH: "And [Osama Bin Laden is] just - he's a person who has now been marginalized. His network is -- his host government has been destroyed. He's the ultimate parasite who found weakness, exploited it, and met his match...So I don't know where he is. Nor -- you know, I just don't spend that much time on him really, to be honest with you. I...I truly am not that concerned about him." [Bush Remarks, 3/13/02]

Mixed Messages on Protecting the Homeland

Bush Thought Homeland Security Cabinet Position Was "Just Not Necessary" And Blocked Its Creation.  In October 2001, White House Press Secretary Ari Fleischer said Bush opposed creating Office of Homeland Security position for Ridge. "[T]he president has suggested to members of Congress that they do not need to make this a statutory post, that he [Ridge] does not need Cabinet rank, for example, there does not need to be a Cabinet-level Office of Homeland Security is because there is such overlap among the various agencies, because every agency of the government has security concerns," Fleischer said. [White House Press Briefing, 10/24/01]

The Coming Week

There won't be much time for wingers to re-spin the debate. The weekend is coming up, and the Vice-Presidential debate is on Tuesday (that should be a blowout without a single word being said). Why in God's name is the next debate on a Friday? It's going to be harder for Kerry to win debate number two. He did well playing the expectations game this time. Next week, it will be "can Bush comeback?" That will be difficult for Kerry to overcome. It is also going to be difficult for us to keep expectations low and simultaneously claim that Kerry won. Lots of work to do, but I feel at least temporarily relieved. Bush could have crippled Kerry tonight, but instead Kerry won. Great stuff.


Display:


On Message Til Monday... Kerry Kicked Ass! (none / 0)

The thing about the debates is that anyone with half a brain who doesn't wake up and snort the kool aid knows Kerry just hit a three run homer with 4 innings to go and Bush didn't even seem to get a chance to see the ball let alone be the batter. But all I wanna say is I have a new campiagn: "On Message Til Monday". The Republican Spin  Machine will go into double duty and already has trying to salvage this President's performance as something short of heoric. They will make it sound like he was St. George coming under the fiery breath of the Kerry Draconicus. But only if we let them. The Media will turn away and begin to focus on Tuesday's debate around 9pm est on Monday (kickoff time for Monday Night Football)... Here's the mantra peeps... "On Message til Monday: Kerry Kicked Ass!"
by Loganpoppy on Fri Oct 01, 2004 at 05:25:18 AM EST

Re: On Message Til Monday... Kerry Kicked Ass! (none / 0)

Monday is key, especially until we see most of the polls.  YEAH YEAH YEAH Polls are BS and they don't mean a lot...except they give us somewhat of a picture and the uninformed eat it up like it was kool-aid laced with cyanide.  The polls will tell us a lot.  I 2-4 point bounce will be good news.  Anything higher means Bush screwed up.  At the very least, if it shifts people from Bush back to undecided, then we truly won tonight.
by Michael on Fri Oct 01, 2004 at 09:42:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: On Message Til Monday... Kerry Kicked Ass! (none / 0)

Michael...right on.  We win with a draw since, in the eyes of many viewers a draw brings Kerry up to an even plane with Bush even though Kerry started the night down an average of 5 polling points. BTW, I thought Bush frequently looked like a scared rabbit or a deer in the headlights...hardly the image a strong (?) commander wants to project.  Bush also looked like a midget until Fox changed the camera angle to show nearly a foot more podium to bring the two heads look at the same level.
by hambro on Fri Oct 01, 2004 at 11:10:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Monday is important for another reason (none / 0)

It will be the first day that all of Rasmussen's results will be post-debate.  Kerry better be at least tied (within a point, let's say) in that poll then.

Why is the Rasmussen poll so important?  Because the sample size is HUGE.  There will 1,000 calls placed today, 1,000 placed tommorow, and 1,000 calls place on Sunday in that poll, for a total of 3,000 people surveyed.  So the sampling error is only +/- two points-very small.

Poll is here:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Presidential_Tracking_Poll.htm

by Geotpf on Fri Oct 01, 2004 at 01:59:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Monday is important for another reason (none / 0)

Possible Scenarios and the results:
  1. Bush increases support and Kerry support goes down or stays the same - Unlikely, but I think if this happens we may be in trouble...or the poll is an outlier.
  2. Bush stays the same and Kerry increases by taking some of the undecided vote - A definate win.
  3. Bush Decreases and Kerry stays the same - A good setup for us as that means people are being open minded.
  4. Bush Decreases and Kerry Increases - A big win and huge momentum as Kerry gains undecideds and some Bush leaners.
  5. Both stay the same - Not as bad as the first scenario, but increases pressure on Kerry.  I don't see this as likely though.
Based on what I have seen today, I am predicting either scenario #2, 3 and 4.  Most likely I think we will see scenario #2; just a gut feeling but I am hoping for #4 obviously.  Any of #2,3, and 4 and a strong showing in Debate #2 could be just what we need to propel us to victory.  Comeback Kid comming back.

What are you predictions?

by Michael on Fri Oct 01, 2004 at 07:32:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Right about the Right (none / 0)

You are correct Chris, the right wing spin has begun.  The Tribune company, owners of the LA Times and Chicago Tribune, have an editorial in today's paper saying the debate was a draw, but reading between the lies...I mean lines... you can see the right is trying to spin this as Kerry looked better but Bush had more substance.  Their editorial devotes space saying Kerry is wrong to want Bi-lateral talks.  Also, very little criticism of Bush.  The reports may have "liberal bias" but the guys who write the checks are conservatives and they are starting the spin.  

If anyone has another Tribune owned paper in their town such as the times, what did their editorial have to say?  The analysis was fair, the editorial (two seperate articles) was biased and patently untrue.  The Chicago version of the evil empire.  

by Michael on Fri Oct 01, 2004 at 09:34:11 AM EST

Line to Repeat (none / 0)

The Kerry campaign now needs to hammer home this line:

"Being certain is one thing.  But you can be certain and wrong."

I also like a slight variant on that idea:
Bush says he's worried about sending mixed messages.  He should worry more about sending the wrong message.

by Kash on Fri Oct 01, 2004 at 10:02:40 AM EST

Re: Bush Putting His Daughter's on a Leas. (none / 0)

Chris, I agree that this was a bad line for Bush, especially when compared to Kerry's response:

BUSH: I'm trying to put a leash on them.

KERRY: Well, I know. I've learned not to do that.

This exchange reveals a lot about their parenting styles and helps explain the differences between the two pairs of daughters.

by EvanstonDem on Fri Oct 01, 2004 at 10:43:15 AM EST

Re: Bush Putting His Daughter's on a Leas. (none / 0)

Anyone else think Jenna Bush was a punchboard in college?  One of these days, pictures will surface or a video...
by Michael on Fri Oct 01, 2004 at 12:54:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Bush Putting His Daughter's on a Leas. (none / 0)

I'm sure she would have been if she hadn't had the bodyguards; having the secret service around tends to cramp a person's style.  I doubt they ever let her go to guy's room drunk after a party, or let one stay in her room in the same circumstance.
Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama for President! Beat McCain!
by Alex on Fri Oct 01, 2004 at 01:27:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Bush Putting His Daughter's on a Leas. (none / 0)

Yeah, but if Secret Service was watching that closely, don't you think they would have kept them from using the fake ideas.
by Michael on Fri Oct 01, 2004 at 07:34:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Bush Putting His Daughter's on a Leas. (none / 0)

I would guess they tightened the leash after that embarrassing incident.  Anyway, buying drinks with fake IDs is one thing; going into a situation where they might conceivably be raped, impregnated, and/or contract an STD is something else entirely.  The Secret Service team on whose watch that happened would probably find themselves looking for counterfeiters on the North Slope of Alaska, or somewhere equally pleasant.
Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama for President! Beat McCain!
by Alex on Fri Oct 01, 2004 at 08:29:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Bush Putting His Daughter's on a Leas. (none / 0)

Punchboard, HA!, that's funny stuff Michael.
by Just Karl on Fri Oct 01, 2004 at 03:30:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

blink blink (none / 0)

All good points. Thought I'd mention one more thing that my wife and I both noticed and sort of creeped us out: the way Bush just kept blinking while he spoke at the end in his closing statement.

It was rapid-fire: blink-blink, blink-blink, blink-blink.

Now I don't know if that means he was lying, or if he was just really nervous after being so thoroughly creamed by Kerry. But it certainly didn't inspire trust. That kind of thing hits home on a subconscious level. People are finally watching Bush and holding him accountable, and he's nervous as hell about it.

by drewthaler on Fri Oct 01, 2004 at 12:18:44 PM EST


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