Senate Forecast 2006

By Chris Bowers
Last Update: November 6th, 8:45 pm eastern

Notes: While Zobgy Internet polls are included in Pollster.com's poll averages, I will not use them as the "latest non-partisan poll." Rasmussen is also a partisan Republican organization, and as such will also not be used as the "last non-partisan poll." Zogby phone polls do have that option. Also, in some races I have been forced to use more or less than five polls in the five-poll average because multiple polls were conducted on the same day. If the polls were old, I dropped all of them. If the polls were new, I used all of them, but restricted myself to using only the most recent poll from each individual polling firm.

Overall: Republicans currently control the Senate 55-43-2. Democrats need at least a net total of six seats in order to take control, assuming both Senate Independents caucus with Democrats. One incoming Independent, Bernie Sanders (I-VT), has indicated he will caucus with the Democrats. One Independent, Joe Lieberman (CfL-CT), claims he will caucus with Democrats if he wins, but that is far from a guarantee.

Thirty-second forecast. Democrats are really pushing me to the edge of optimism now. Continued Democratic advancement in New Jersey has basically put that state out of reach. Democrats are also holding steady in Pennsylvania and Ohio. While we are struggling in Tennessee, we are gaining in Arizona. As very blue states in a very blue year, Maryland and Rhode Island have grown strangely worrying. However, perhaps more importantly, Democrats have large leads in the final polls form Virginia, Missouri and Montana. Throw it all together and the Senate will be decided in five states: Rhode Island, Maryland, Montana, Missouri, and Virginia. While Democrats need all five to win control by one seat, they actually have small to decent polling leads in all five. Further, they have the benefit of the incumbent rule and the blowing breeze theory in all three. Thus, when looking at each race in isolation, it seems reasonable to favor the Democratic candidate in each of these campaigns. And I have done just that.

However, looking at the odds in a broader context, it does not seem reasonable to me to expect that Democrats will pull out all of these close races. Thus, while on a seat-by-seat level I forecast a six-seat gain for Democrats, overall I forecast only a five seat gain. In other words, I forecast six Democratic pickups in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Rhode Island, Montana, Virginia and Missouri. I also forecast Democrats to hold every seat where Republicans are challenging. However, I think Missouri, Virginia, Montana, Maryland (and maybe Rhode Island) are all so close, I think it is more likely than not that we will lose one of those races. I just can't pick which one we will lose (probably not Rhode Island).

This means that overall, I still forecast Republicans narrowly holding the Senate 50-48-2. If Lieberman caucuses with Democrats, Dick Cheney will cast the tie-breaking vote. The forecast stays at a Democratic pickup of five seats, with a four to six seat confidence range. Apart from the pickups I listed above, I forecast all other seats to remain with their current party, including Vermont (Independent) and Connecticut (Connecticut for Lieberman). This is by far the closest I have ever come to predicting a Democratic takeover of the Senate, and right now I would place the odds at around 40% that Democrats take the chamber. We will find out tomorrow night.

*********

Democratic Targets
Lean Democratic

• 1. Ohio. (Democrat: Sherrod Brown). Two weeks ago, Sherrod Brown suddenly, and shockingly, moved clear in this race. Last week, it seemed as though the lead was holding. Now, the NRSC and the RNC have abandoned the seat, and the lead continues to hold. DeWine doesn't even lead Brown in money anymore, since he hasn't paid for his air time and Brown has. This portion of the Republican "firewall" has been thoroughly demolished. Ohio and Pennsylvania are the two best Democratic pickup opportunities, just like they were at this time last year. The more thing change, the more they stay the same.
  Money race as of 9/30: DeWine $4.5M, Brown $1.2M
  Pollster.com five poll average: Brown 54.3%, DeWine 42.0%. Six polls used for dating purposes.
  Latest Non-Partisan Poll: Univeristy of Cincinnati, November 5: Brown 56%, DeWine 44%.
  
  
• 2. Pennsylvania. (Democrat: Bob Casey) This is the first time I have ever placed any pickup, House or Senate, Democratic or Republican, in this category. However, I feel it is absolutely deserved. Casey is up 10.2% across five polls and ahead in cash. First Santorum went dark because he ran out of money, and then he came back with some really lame ads about how much he likes Hillary Clinton. That will help him with his base. Whatever flaws Casey may have as a candidate, this is his year. Mark this one down. Bye bye little Ricky. Keep talking about Hobbits.
  Money race as of 9/30: Casey $3.7M , Santorum $3.6M.
  Pollster.com five poll average: Casey 51.3%, Santorum 40.2%. Six polls used for dating purposes.
  Latest Non-Partisan Poll: Mason-Dixon, November 2: Casey 52%, Santorum 39%

Lean Democratic

• 3. Rhode Island. (Democrat: Sheldon Whitehouse). Out of the frying pan for Chafee, into the deep fat fryer. With the help of every NRCC staffer east of the Mississippi, Chafee edged out a primary win against Laffey. However, Whitehouse had more votes than Chafee and Laffey combined on primary night, despite his race not being seriously contested. Further, Rhode Island is also one of the bluest states in the nation, making me feel pretty good about where the undecideds will break. While some polls have sown a much closer race, the overall average is still heavily in favor of Whitehouse. Chafee can't win if he never gets over 46%. I'm keeping this one "Lean Dem." We will find out soon enough if that is a mistake.
  Money race as of 9/30: Whitehouse $1.4M, Chafee $0.6M. Chafee with ability to self-finance.
  Pollster.com five-poll average: Whitehouse 49.3%, Chafee 42.8%. Only four polls recent enough to use in the average.
  Latest Non-Partisan Poll: Gallup, November 3: Whitehouse 48%, Chafee 45%

Toss-up

• 4. Montana: (Democrat: Jon Tester). Conrad Burns has clearly made up a lot of ground in this race, and now the NRSC is dumping a lot of its remaining funds into Montana. The state's conservative nature might finally be catching up with the limits of what a people-powered movement can do. Mind you, Burns does have a sub-40 approval rating, Tester still leads, and I expect Tester to win. However, this race has clearly become a lot closer, and we are going to have to fight right until the end to take this seat.
  Money race as of 9/30: Burns $1.7M, Tester $0.6M
  Pollster.com five-poll average: Tester 48.8%, Burns 45.8%
  Latest non-partisan poll: Gallup, November 4, Tester 50%, Burns 41%
  
  
• 5. Missouri: (Democrat: Claire McCaskill). This see-saw, nip and tuck race has once again swung back slightly toward Talent McCaskill Talent McCaskill Talent McCaskill. Missouri is still a heavily targeted "firewall" state by both the RNC and the NRSC. The Republican Noise Machine is trying to come down hard in this race by attacking Michael J. Fox, but it didn't work. The last five polls all now show either a tie or a very slight McCaskill lead. Further, the recent Zogby poll showed Talent's re-elect is under 40%, which should give McCaskill some very real hope. Right now, the battle for Senate control is being waged in Missouri, and so it is here that both Democrats and Republicans are making their stand. This race has been close for a long, long time, and it looks like it will stay that way until the very end. Then again, McCaskill does lead by nine in the final Survey USA poll.
  Money race as of 9/30: Talent $4.2M, McCaskill $0.2M
  Pollster.com five-poll average: McCaskill 48.6%, Talent 46.6%
  Latest Non-Partisan Poll: Survey USA, November 5: McCaskill 50%, Talent 44%
  
  
• 6. Virginia (Democrat: Jim Webb). First, Allen had a large lead. Next, Webb rose quickly. Then, Allen pulled away a little. A little later, Webb is again caught up quickly. Now, at long last, Webb has seized the lead. With only a week to go before the election, the timing of this latest development could not be any better. The campaign smacks of the 2005 Virginia Governor's race, where Kaine pulled ahead right at the end and went on to a fairly comfortable victory. The same could happen here as Allen's thuggish, racist behavior (combine the two and you get fascist) seems about to bring an end to his political career. The polls are converging for Webb, as is the people power. This rapidly becoming a major upset and a major netroots victory. I favor Webb.
  Money race as of 9/30: Allen $5.6M, Webb $2.7M
  Pollster.com five-poll average: Webb 48.6%, Allen 47.4%
  Latest Non-Partisan Poll: Survey USA, November 5, Webb 52%, Allen 44%

Leans Republican

• 7. Tennessee: (Democrat: Harold Ford). Ford's internals still show him ahead, but independent polling has turned against him in a big way. Corker has comfortable leads in all recent independent polls, even if the trend has stabilized rather than continuing to move downward I still wonder if, even now, Ford's polls could be inflated slightly. Might there be a tendency among a small but significant percentages of the Tennessee population who would say they might vote for Ford, but never actually cast a vote for an African-American when they are in the voting booth? Considering what appears to be the success of Corker's overtly racist campaign against Ford, I am inclined to believe just that.
  Money Race as of 9/30: Ford $0.8M, Corker $0.5M. Corker with ability to self-finance.
  Pollster.com five-poll average: Corker 50.8%, Ford 44.4%
  Latest Non-Partisan Poll: Gallup, November 4, Corker 49%, Ford 46%
  
  
• 8. Arizona. (Democrat: Jim Pederson). Pederson has made up some ground in this race, and every voting suggests yet greater Democratic strength. Here at MyDD, we had a lot of hope for this race early on. For a while, not much was happening, but clearly Joel Wright's early confidence proved well warranted. After the DSCC downgraded this race, they have now jumped back in. Still, while the momentum favors Pederson, it would be a surprise if he were to win.
  Money race as of 9/30: Kyl $5.0M, Pederson $1.2M. Pederson with ability to self-finance.
  Pollster.com three-poll average: Kyl 50.0%, Pederson 42.2%
  Latest Non-Partisan Poll: Mason-Dixon, November 2, Kyl 49%, Pederson 41%

********

Republican Targets
Lean Democratic Toss-up

• 1. Maryland (Democrat: Ben Cardin). Ahh, the race that won't go away. Steele has continued to slowly close the gap, and now trails by less than four points in the five-poll average. I certainly have my doubts about Cardin's ability as a candidate (as I also did with Mfume, which is why I stayed neutral in the primary). Still, overall Cardin holds a decent, if not solid, lead in the five-poll average, and no polls has ever shown Steele ahead. Combine this with the huge turnout in the Maryland Democratic primary and Maryland being a blue state, and Cardin is still barely the favorite here.
  Money race as of 9/30: Steele $2.1M, Cardin $1.6M
  Pollster.com six-poll average: Cardin 48.8%, Steele 45.4% (Six polls used for dating reasons)
  Latest Non-Partisan Poll: Survey USA, November 5: Cardin 49%, Steele 46%

Lean Democratic

2. New Jersey, (Democrat: Robert Menendez). The NRSC has dumped $5M into the state. That was a waste of money, as New Jersey continues to tease Republicans with the possibility of a pickup. The last twenty-four polls, including partisan republican polls, have shown Menendez ahead in this race. For Kean to be behind in the polls, behind in cash, but ahead in name ID is a really bad combination for him. Throw in the general tendency for the electorate in New Jersey to be much bluer than the Democratic polling universe, and I have no qualms about strongly favoring Menendez. Republicans will break through in New Jersey sometime, but at least right now it doesn't look like it will happen in 2006. Sorry Taegen.
Money race as of 9/30: Menendez $5.5M, Kean $3.2M
Pollster.com seven-poll average: Menendez 49.0%, Kean 42.4%. Seven polls used for dating reasons.
Latest Non-Partisan Poll: FDU, October 31, Menendez 48%, Kean 38% Likely Democratic

• 3. Washington, (Democrat: Maria Cantwell). Since this race is actually closer than Ohio and Pennsylvania, and nearly equal to Rhode Island, I had to put it back on the board. Don't read that as an implication that Cantwell is in any danger. The NRSC abandoned McGavick, Cantwell is still well over 50%, and this is still a blue state in a blue year. All it means is that in order to be consistent, I have to put this race back on the board.
  Money race as of 9/30: Cantwell $3.6M, McGavick $2.1M. McGavick with ability to self-finance.
  Pollster.com five-poll average: Cantwell 53.8%, McGavick 42.5%. Six polls used for dating reasons.
  Latest Non-Partisan Poll: Mason-Dixon, November 2, Cantwell 54%, McGavick 38%
  
  
• 4. Michigan (Democrat: Debbie Stabenow). I had taken this race off the board, but now that Pennsylvania and Ohio have equal leads to Michigan, it makes more sense to keep it on the board. Also, I heard from a source that Bouchard might actually have more cash than Stabenow presently. I hated Stabenow's ads, and this has not been quite the slam-dunk campaign it seemed to be six weeks ago. With a ten-point lead in a blue state in a blue year, Stabenow will win this thing, but her victory will probably end up being closer than it should have been.
  Money race as of 9/30: Stabenow $1.3M, Bouchard $0.6M
  Pollster.com six-poll average: Stabenow 52.2%, Bouchard 40.2%
  Latest non-partisan poll: Survey USA, November 4: Stabenow 52%, Bouchard 42%

*********

Misc.

• Connecticut: (Democrat: Ned Lamont). Clearly, this does not look good for Lamont, but the race isn't over. There are stories of a big Lamont. Combine that with big Democratic turnout, Republicans coming home to Schlesinger, and Schlesinger's ballot position, and who knows.
  Money race as of 9/30: Lieberman $4.7M, Lamont $0.3M. Lamont with ability to self-finance.
  Pollster.com Five poll average: Lieberman 49.4%, Lamont 39.2%, Schlesinger 7.4%
  Latest Non-Partisan Poll: Quinnipiac, November 5 Lieberman 50%, Lamont 38%, Schlesinger 8%

Non-competitive

• Democratic held: Akaka (HI), Bingaman (NM), Byrd (WV), Carper (DE); Clinton (NY); Conrad (ND), Feinstein (CA), Kennedy (MA), Klobuchar (MN), Kohl (WI), Nelson (FL), Nelson (NE)
  
  
• Independent held: Open (VT) is projected to go easily to Bernie Sanders (I-VT)
  
  
• Republican held: Ensign (NV), Hatch (UT), Hutchison (TX), Lott (MS), Lugar (IN), Snow (ME), Craig (WY).