Governor Forecast 2006

By Jonathan Singer
Last Update: November 7, 3:45 PM

Overall: Republicans currently control most governorships, with 28 of the nation's 50 governors being members of the GOP. But this year it appears extremely likely that the Democrats will capture a majority.

Thirty-second forecast: I currently forecast the Democrats netting between six and nine governorships in November. States in which the Democrats are favored to pick-up the governorship are New York, Ohio, Massachusetts, Arkansas, and Colorado, with Minnesota and Maryland currently rated as a toss-up. Idaho, Alaska and Nevada are also on the cusp for the Democrats, currently leaning Republican but very possibly switching parties this year. Republicans are not favored to pick-up any Democratic governorships, though two -- Maine and Wisconsin -- are currently projected as toss-ups. More likely than not, Democrats will hold on to both seats. If the current national winds prevail, I predict the Democrats holding their contested governorships and picking up all seven toss-up and Dem-favored GOP governorships as well as one of the three Republican-leaning governorships yielding a total of 30 Democratic Governors and 20 Republican Governors.

*********

Democratic Targets

Safe Democratic

• 1. New York (Democrat: Eliot Spitzer).

• 2. Ohio (Democrat: Ted Strickland).

• 3. Massachusetts (Democrat: Deval Patrick).

Likely Democratic

• 4. Colorado (Democrat: Bill Ritter). Former Denver District Attorney Bill Ritter appears to have the "Big Mo" in Colorado, consistently polling ahead of GOP Rep. Bob Beauprez in the race to succeed term-limited Republican Governor Bill Owens. This race appears to be on its way to being a real debacle for the Republicans.
  Latest polling: Polimetrix, Ritter 60 - Beauprez 40, November 6; Public Opinion Strategies, Ritter 55 - Beauprez 33, November 3; SurveyUSA, Ritter 57 - Beauprez 35, November 2.

• 5. Arkansas (Democrat: Mike Beebe). This race is very close to the borderline between "Leans Democratic" and "Likely Democratic." The general consensus among pollsters today is that Democratic Attorney General Mike Beebe has a good chance of defeating former GOP Congressman Asa Hutchinson and succeeding term-limited Republican Governor Mike Huckabee, who is likely running for president in 2008. The only question now appears to be what the margin of Beebe's lead is.
  Latest polls: SurveyUSA, Beebe 51 - Hutchinson 42, November 6; Rasmussen Reports, Beebe 49 - Hutchinson 41, October 30.

Toss-Up

• 6. Maryland (Democrat: Martin O'Malley). Maryland's Republican Governor Robert Ehrlich is almost certainly the most endangered incumbent this cycle. Although he is not terribly unpopular, neither is he terribly popular either. In an anti-incumbent and anti-GOP environment and a fairly blue state, Ehrlich is going to have significantly more trouble with Baltimore Mayor Martin O'Malley than he did in 2002 against then-Lt. Gov. Kathleen Kennedy Townsend. And while Ehrlich is coming on strong, it may be too little too late.
  Latest polling: SurveyUSA, O'Malley 50 - Ehrlich 47, November 6; Polimetrix, O'Malley 50 - Ehlich 48, November 6; Mason-Dixon, O'Malley 45 - Ehrlich 45, November 5; Baltimore Sun, O'Malley 47 - Ehrlich 46, Nobember 1.

• 7. Minnesota (Mike Hatch). As Republican Governor Tim Pawlenty's approval rating inched up in recent months, it appeared that he would be able to score a tough, though clear win over Democratic Attorney General Mike Hatch. But the latest polling shows a fairly clear consensus that Pawlenty is stuck in the low to mid-40s in the head-to-head matchup against Hatch, indicating he might have trouble on election day.
  Latest polling: SurveyUSA, Hatch 45 - Pawlenty 45, November 6; Polimetrix, Hatch 49 - Pawlenty 45, November 6; Star Tribune, Hatch 45 - Pawlenty 40, November 4.

Leans Republican

• 8. Idaho (Democrat: Jerry Brady). Democratic gubernatorial candidates throughout the Mountain West are performing remarkably well this year, with Govs. Freudenthal (WY), Napolitano (AZ) and Richardson (NM) all headed for easy reelection, Bill Ritter seemingly on the way to a sweeping victory in Colorado and Dina Titus edging ever closer in Nevada. Could this trend extend to Idaho? Perhaps so. There has been a dearth of public polling from this contest, but both public polling and internal polling from the campaign of Democrat Jerry Brady shows the race statistically tied. Given the fact that Republican Congressmen running for Governor around the country this year are having real difficulty (think Mark Green and Bob Beauprez, for example), perhaps it shouldn't come as a surprise that Rep. Butch Otter is having difficulty in this race. Idaho Republicans still might come home to the party, leaving this race just outside of the toss-up category (at least in my view), but if this race stays as it is for another few days, it probably could go either way. Put simply, the race is still Otter's to lose -- which he very well might do.
  Recent polling: KTVB, Brady 41 - Otter 36, November 3; Mason-Dixon, Otter 44 - Brady 43, October 29.

• 9. Nevada (Democrat: Dina Titus). This race has not yet completely gelled, though Republican Congressman Jim Gibbons appears to have an advantage over the Democratic leader of the state Senate, Dina Titus, in the race to succeed Republican Governor Kenny Guinn, who is term-limited. Titus certainly has a shot -- Nevada is as close of a state as they come and the progressive grassroots in the state is strong -- but Gibbons has been generally favored. But allegations of assault and employment of an illegal immigrant against Gibbons could throw this race into "toss-up" land.
  Latest polling: Polimetrix, Gibbons 51 - Titus 44, November 6; Review Journal, Gibbons 44 - Titus 40, November 1.

• 10. Alaska (Democrat: Tony Knowles). This race has been all over the place, with signs of great potential given the candidacy of former Democratic Governor Tony Knowles and the sub-20 percent approval rating of Republican Governor Frank Murkowski. But with Murkowski having lost badly in the GOP primary to former Wasilla mayor Sarah Palin, this race seemed close to set for the Republicans. However, Knowles is coming on strong late, keeping this race very much in play, though still leaning GOP.
  Latest polling: Rasmussen Reports, Palin 42 - Knowles 40, November 3; Dittman, Palin 48 - Knowles 39, October 26.

Likely Republican

• 11. Florida (Democrat: Jim Davis). The polling from this race shows a moderately tight race between Republican Charlie Crist and Democrat Jim Davis. Nevertheless, Crist has a major fundraising advantage over Davis, Democrats have had real trouble in statewide elections in Florida in recent cycles, Democratic turnout during the September 5 primary was remarkably low, so even the certain reelection of Democratic Senator Bill Nelson might not make a sufficient impact on the governor race. And yet... is this race showing a natural tightening or does Davis still have a chance?
  Latest polling: Polimetrix, Crist 54 - Davis 42, November 6; Strategic Vision (R), Crist 51 - Davis 44, November 6; SurveyUSA, Crist 49 - Davis 47, November 5; Zogby, Crist 48 - Davis 38, November 5; Mason-Dixon, Crist 50 - Davis 43, November 3.

• 12. Rhode Island (Democrat: Charlie Fogarty). Given that there are competitive races for both the Senate and the governorship in Rhode Island this year, there sure isn't a lot of Beltway chatter the state.Polling from this blue state shows that Republican Gov. Don Carcieri's approval rating has fallen below 50 percent, though he now has a somewhat sizeable lead, enough so that this race is in the "likely Republican" category.
  Latest polling: Mason-Dixon, Carcieri 50 - Fogarty 42, November 5.

Safe Republican:

• (In alphabetical order, by state): Bob Riley in Alabama, Arnold Schwarzenegger in California, Jodi Rell in Connecticut, Sonny Perdue in Georgia, Linda Lingle in Hawaii, Dave Heineman in Nebraska, Mark Sanford in South Carolina, Mike Rounds in South Dakota, Rick Perry in Texas (though the race should be interesting with two strong independent candidates), and Jim Douglas in Vermont.

*********

Republican Targets

Toss-Up

• 1. Maine (Democrat: John Baldacci -- ActBlue). Democratic Governor John Baldacci's approval rating is not particularly impressive and he has not been able to woo over more than about 42 percent of the Maine electorate. At the same time, his Republican challenger, State Sen. Chandler Woodcock hasn't really made the sell to Maine voters, and the prescence of a strong independent candidate might mean that 42 percent -- or even 36 percent -- will be enough for Baldacci to secure a second term.
  Latest polling: SurveyUSA, Baldacci 36 - Woodcock 30, November 5; Critical Insights, Baldacci 42 - Woodcock 25, October 27.

• 2. Wisconsin (Democrat: Jim Doyle -- ActBlue). Democratic Governor Jim Doyle, whose approval ratings have settled in the high 40s, is facing a stiff challenge from Republican Congressman Mark Green. While Green is no doubt a strong candidate for the Republicans, he was not necessarily their strongest, with former Gov. Tommy Thompson having flirted with another bid earlier this year. What's more, Green is running as a GOP Rep. in a year in which the Republican Congress is not terribly popular.
  Latest polling: Polimetrix, Doyle 53 - Green 43, November 6; Strategic Vision (R), Doyle 48 - Green 45, November 6; Research 2000, Doyle 50 - Green 44, November 3; Badger Poll, Doyle 50 - Green 36, October 31.

Leans Democratic

• 3. Oregon (Democrat: Ted Kulongoski -- ActBlue). Oregon's Ted Kulongoski is another Democratic Governor who appeared to be on track for defeat earlier in the year only to find himself leading in his race for reelection. In fact, there were questions as to whether or not he would even be able to gain renomination, with two other relatively strong candidates running in the Democratic primary. Kulongoski may have dodged a bullet when the increasingly progressive state Sen. Ben Westlund dropped his indie bid for governor, leaving Republican Ron Saxton and a handful of minor party candidates in the race. Saxton spent big early on negative ads and the RGA pumped at least $1,000,000 into the race. But the negative ads might be backfiring (Oregonians don't seem to like negative campaigns; just harken back to the 1996 special Senate election) as Democrats appear to be going home to Kulongoski and independent voters are also swinging the way of the Governor.
  Latest polling: Polimetrix, Kulongoski 54 - Saxton 46 (third parties not polled), November 6; Oregonian, Kulongoski 46 - Saxton 39, November 2; Rasmussen Reports, Kulongoski 51 - Saxton 44, October 31.

• 4. Iowa (Democrat: Chet Culver -- ActBlue). Democratic Governor Tom Vilsack, who is not running for a third term, has a passable approval rating, but that hasn't abated the anti-incumbent party feeling from hitting Iowa this year as Democratic Secretary of State Chet Culver takes on Republican Congressman Jim Nussle. Data currently available now shows Culver with a noticeable lead going into election day.
  Latest polling: Polimetrix, Culver 54 - Nussle 46, November 6; Des Moines Register, Culver 52 - Nussle 43, November 4; Research 2000, Culver 50 - Nussle 45, November 1.

• 5. Illinois (Democrat: Rod Blagojevich). Questions surrounding the ethics of Rod Blagojevich's administration are causing some hearburn for Democrats in Illinois -- but not enough to make them panic over the possibility of losing the governorship this year. Blagojevich is working hard to paint Republican state Treasurer Judy Baar Topinka as excessively close to President Bush, a tactic that appears to be working. This race is far from over, but even despite the presence of a Green Party candidate receiving more than 10 percent of the vote, the incumbent clearly has the edge.
  Latest polling: Polimetrix, Blagojevich 61 - Baar Topinka 39 (Green cand. not polled), November 6; SurveyUSA, Blagojevich 45 - Baar Topinka 37, November 2; Mason-Dixon, Blagojevich 44 - Baar Topinka 40, November 1; Chicago Tribune, Blagojevich 44 - Baar Topinka 29, October 31.

• 6. Michigan (Democrat: Jennifer Granholm). Earlier this summer, Democratic Governor Jennifer Granholm appeared headed for defeat, at least in part due to the weak state of Michigan's economy. But Granholm got a second wind and began campaigning hard against Amway heir Dick DeVos -- and spending big bucks. Now the race seems to be tilted in her favor ever so slightly, enough so to move it to the "leans Democrat" category.
  Latest polling: Polimetrix, Granholm 55 - DeVos 43, November 6; Strategic Vision (R), Granholm 52 - DeVos 42, November 6; SurveyUSA, Granholm 51 - DeVos 45, October 5; Detroit Free-Press, Granholm 54 - DeVos 41, November 5; Mason-Dixon, Granholm 52 - DeVos 38, November 5; EPIC-MRA, Granholm 52 - DeVos 43, November 3; Detroit News, Granholm 52 - DeVos 42, October 31; WoodTV, Granholm 48 - DeVos 36, October 31.

• (In alphabetical order, by state): Janet Napolitano in Arizona, Kathleen Sebelius in Kansas, John Lynch in New Hampshire, Bill Richardson in New Mexico, Brad Henry in Oklahoma, Ed Rendell in Pennsylvania, Phil Bredesen in Tennessee, and Dave Freudenthal in Wyoming.