Are the Democrats better off with Tom DeLay or Tom Campbell as the GOP nominee?

Tom DeLay   153 votes - 65 %
Tom Campbell   22 votes - 9 %
Doesn't matter; either way the Democrats are going to win   40 votes - 17 %
Doesn't matter; either way the Democrats are going to lose   20 votes - 8 %
 
235 Total Votes
Display:


Re: Will DeLay's Fate Be Sealed in Two Days? (none / 0)

I believe it's Steve Stockman who is the ex-congressman running as the independent.  David Stockman was Reagan's budget director.

My question is, if Delay loses the primary, would Stockman drop out?  That would be the worst of all worlds, politically speaking, for Democrats.  

Obviously, the political end of Delay is good no matter what, but it would be nice to have that seat.  Nice to help regain the House, and nice to have as a trophy to remind all who see it of the dangers of hubris.


by One Hand Clapping on Sun Mar 05, 2006 at 02:05:20 PM EST

Re: Will DeLay's Fate Be Sealed in Two Days? (none / 0)

That's the second time I've gotten the Stockmans confused. Thanks.


My Direct Democracy
by Jonathan Singer on Sun Mar 05, 2006 at 03:04:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

worst of all worlds, politically speaking (none / 0)

Taking the "San Diego" model as an example, you're right. In heavily Republican San Diego the voters were fed up with their crook Republican mayor, so when the election came around the majority voted for the write-in Democrat candidate Donna Fry. But the Repugs threw out a couple thousand ballots as being invalid because those people did not "check the box" next to the line they wrote her name on and the Repug crook mayor running for re-election was declared the winner by about a hundred votes. A couple of months after he began his second term even more of his sleaze came to light and he was kicked out of office. When they held special elections for mayor some months later with all new Republicans, the people lost their anger and thought "oh, well these other Republicans are different" and Donna Fry the Democrat, who "really" won the first time, lost when she ran again. So yes, it's better for us if DeLay doesn't lose his primary race.


by William Domingo on Sun Mar 05, 2006 at 10:21:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Will DeLay's Fate Be Sealed in Two Days? (none / 0)

I think you have it backwards about newspaper endorsements.  Endorsements follow public opinion, they don't lead it.  If the Houston Chronicle comes out against DeLay, it means DeLay is already screwed.


by drlimerick on Sun Mar 05, 2006 at 02:11:24 PM EST

My guess is that Delay will win the primary (none / 0)

by about 2-5%. Nick Lampson will run away with the Democratic Nomination.


Running the Davis, Nelson Klein team in Florida.
by Liberal on Sun Mar 05, 2006 at 02:15:44 PM EST

Re: My guess is that Delay will win the primary (none / 0)

Nick Lampson will run away with the Democratic Nomination.

One would certainly hope so, since he's unopposed in the primary.


by kuff on Sun Mar 05, 2006 at 06:52:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: My guess is that Delay will win the primary (none / 0)

Yeah it's a good guess i think.


Running the Davis, Nelson Klein team in Florida.
by Liberal on Sun Mar 05, 2006 at 09:26:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

proofreading (none / 0)

bellweather -> bellwether
ciphon -> siphon
of off the GOP nominee -> off of the GOP nominee
on to watch -> one to watch
by cos on Sun Mar 05, 2006 at 02:19:43 PM EST

Re: proofreading (none / 0)

Do you one better--"off of the GOP nominee" should be "off the GOP nominee." "Off of" is always redundant--poor style.

Sorry, but once a teacher, always a teacher.


by Baltimore on Sun Mar 05, 2006 at 02:57:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: proofreading (none / 0)

Thanks.


My Direct Democracy
by Jonathan Singer on Sun Mar 05, 2006 at 03:05:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Will DeLay's Fate Be Sealed in Two Days? (none / 0)

It's not entirely clear to me whether Democratic chances in the district would be affected by a DeLay win or loss in Tuesday's primary... though traditional wisdom would likely state that the Democrats are better off with a wounded, though not defeated Tom DeLay."

I don't think there's any question what would be better here.  Traditional wisdom in this case is dead-on.

Running against an indicted scumbag who stinks of absolutely everything that's wrong with Washington is clearly preferable to running against a 'fresh faced' Republican like Freeman.

In a Republican district like this one, it's critical to Democratic chances of winning that traditional Republican voters be forced to think about their choices.

If Republicans have an indicted scumbag as their nominee, they're forced to consider whether or not they want to represented by a criminal.  

Any Republican who doesn't have DeLay's baggage allows those voters to fall back into their comfortable habit of simply voting for GOPers, regardless of what Lampson does (For similar reasons, the 2004 results in Hyde's district are completely irrelevant now... with a fossil like Hyde not running, it's an entirely new ballgame and a much tougher race to win).  

Stockman being in the race with DeLay as the GOP candidate improves Lampson's prospects, even if only by a little (which might be all Lampson needs), while a Republican who doesn't carry DeLay's thick, foul stench probably marginalizes Stockman's impact.

So, here's to a bruising, ugly election night that sees Tom DeLay stagger to a narrow primary victory.

Cheers.


by Politicalhack06 on Sun Mar 05, 2006 at 02:26:56 PM EST

Re: Will DeLay's Fate Be Sealed in Two Days? (none / 0)

That, and the fact that if they get rid of DeLay in a primary, the national dem party then no longer has as much traction when they try to use DeLay as a figurehead for what the reps stand for.


"You say the world has lost it's love I say embrace what it's made of" -Dar Williams
by Valatan on Mon Mar 06, 2006 at 12:03:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Will DeLay's Fate Be Sealed in Two Days? (none / 0)

I think DeLay is gonna win, I just gotta figure out what odds I can give Nate.


by Jerome Armstrong on Sun Mar 05, 2006 at 03:40:40 PM EST

Re: Will DeLay's Fate Be Sealed in Two Days? (none / 0)

I offered you 10 to 1. Make a counter offer.


by Texas Nate on Sun Mar 05, 2006 at 10:24:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Will DeLay's Fate Be Sealed in Two Days? (none / 0)

For the record, the Chron hasn't endorsed DeLay in any race since 2000. They non-endorsed in the 2002 primary (he was running against Mike Fjetland, who's in this field now and who ran as an independent in 2004), and endorsed Democrats Tim Riley in 2002 and Richard Morrison in 2004. I'd have bet good money on this, and I'll bet they already have their Lampson endorsement ready for October.


by kuff on Sun Mar 05, 2006 at 06:55:12 PM EST

Re: Will DeLay's Fate Be Sealed in Two Days? (3.00 / 1)

My take, for what it's worth:

I think prospects in this district are better for Democrats if Delay wins his primary but with a weak showing.

I think prospects for Democrats nationwide are better if DeLay loses it. That would show that the voters are taking the "corruption" issue very seriously. If an extremely powerful incumbent Congressman is abandoned by his own constituents, then the effects ripple out to a much larger group of races. Rank and file voters nationwide (in both parties) agree that corruption is terrible, but many privately reserve the opinion that nothing can be done about it. If GOP voters do something about it in TX-22, it encourages voters in many other districts to feel that it's an issue that can and should be a make-it-or-break-it factor in how they vote, because getting rid of corrupt incumbents can in fact be done.

So, either way it can be viewed as a gain, as long as DeLay doesn't win by a landslide.


by Christopher Walker on Mon Mar 06, 2006 at 11:06:02 AM EST


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