Well, we haven't seen a hit piece from the Associated Press yet, but I can tell you this: John McCain's speech wasn't a hit -- just ask the delegates.

Sleepy? Our colleague Patrick Healy reports from the floor: There is a delegate in the Utah section and a delegate in Puerto Rico who are both drooping, eyes closed - look asleep - both are men.

It's possible that this speech is the inverse of Sarah Palin's last night -- boring for the crowd inside, but more palatable for the general viewership. I say possible, though, for a reason; McCain's delivery was decidedly underwhelming, and the staging by his campaign -- particularly the lime Jell-O green screen that shone behind McCain during the beginning of the speech, only to turn to a color that at least to the television viewer might be described as blue raspberry -- was similarly unsuccessful.

McCain certainly tried to embrace the "change" label. Will it work for a candidate who hugged George W. Bush both figuratively and literally in recent years, voting at least 90 percent of the time for the most unpopular President in the history of polling? Color me unimpressed. But we shall wait and see...

What were your thoughts?

Update [2008-9-4 23:28:57 by Jonathan Singer]: Hillary Clinton's thoughts:

"The two party conventions showcased vastly different directions for our country. Senator Obama and Senator Biden offered the new ideas and positive change America needs and deserves after eight years of failed Republican leadership. Senator McCain and Governor Palin did not.

"After listening to all of the speeches this week, I heard nothing that suggests the Republicans are ready to fix the economy for middle class families, provide quality affordable health care for all Americans, guarantee equal pay for equal work for women, restore our nation's leadership in a complex world or tackle the myriad of challenges our country faces.

"So, to slightly amend my comments from Denver: NO WAY, NO HOW, NO McCAIN-PALIN."

That's unequivocal and really well said. Kudos to Senator Clinton for her grace and magnanimousness in working for the Democratic ticket this fall.

Cindy McCain us speaking now. Anyone watching? Joe Scarborough said that after the thrill of last night in the hall, the Excel Center feels like a "a mid year rules committee conference of the platform committee."

My Twitter feed is HERE.

John McCain should be speaking in about a half hour.

Update [2008-9-4 22:17:44 by Jonathan Singer]: Lime Jell-O!

Update [2008-9-4 22:24:34 by Todd Beeton]:Whoah, Code Pink in the house. McCain has lost control.

Update [2008-9-4 22:29:31 by Todd Beeton]:Wow, he's focusing an awful lot on people other than himself. When does the speech start?

Update [2008-9-4 22:40:0 by Todd Beeton]:Zzzzzz. Sarah, can you help him out out there, please?

Here's video of Barack at a townhall in York, Pennsylvania today.

"They've had a lot to say about me. But they haven't had anything to say about you."

Here's video of Barack at a press conference in York to reiterate the message.

"They haven't spent any time talking about the problems that ordinary Americans are going through every single day...Now I understand they don't have much of an agenda to run on but I think the American people deserve better..."

Here's a fundraising ask the Obama campaign sent out hitting back against Palin's mockery of community organizers.

With the nation watching, the Republicans mocked, dismissed, and actually laughed out loud at Americans who engage in community service and organizing. [...]

What you didn't hear from the Republicans at their convention is a single new idea about how to make the healthcare system work, get our economy moving for the middle class, or improve education.

Just attacks -- on me, and on you.

But what the McCain attack squad doesn't understand is that people like you -- who devote part of their busy lives to organizing and building their communities -- have the power to change this country.

I've gotten a lot of fundraising asks from Barack Obama this year but I have to say this one inspired my biggest donation yet.

Who's with me?

Update [2008-9-4 20:44:59 by Todd Beeton]:Interesting, looks like I'm not alone. MSNBC is reporting that the RNC has raised $1 million for John McCain since Sarah Palin's speech while Barack Obama has raised $8 million.

So, whose base is Palin exciting again?

Update [2008-9-4 21:11:54 by Todd Beeton]:Ambinder on Twitter reports that the Obama campaign is saying they've raised $10 million since last night.

I get to be the one that delivers the news to the 8% of Americans (of which the blog readers here appear to be high in margin) who think Palin got an F last night that, well, you don't represent the American majority viewpoint. Surprise.

That's the early result from the SUSA poll out today:
"What grade do you give her on the speech? An A, B, C, D, or an F?"

60 percent, including Joe Biden, gave it an A.

Overall, for being an asset and reflecting well on McCain, Palin comes off about the same as Biden does for Obama. A wash yea, but a huge bump for Palin:

I expected that much. What's more disturbing though, is questions 7 & 8 in the SUSA poll.

If you were placing a bet today, would you bet that Barack Obama will be elected president? Or, John McCain will be elected president?

I've not seen a single one of these that favor McCain, but this does, by a slim 48-45 margin.  

And this is just insane:

Is the media rooting for Barack Obama? Rooting for John McCain? Or trying its best to be fair to both?

Barack Obama  54
John McCain    8
Being Fair    35
Not Sure       4

The media has been busy digging a grave for us this past week, by following up on the vicious personal smears that have been pushed by prominent liberal blogs into the mainstream. Not only did they mostly backfire by not being true, but they confirmed the popular opinion that the media favors Obama. It's become conventional wisdom. This presents two huge problems.

First, McCain can basically wield whatever attacks he'd like, and not have to worry about the critique of the media. They are not seen as objective judges in the matter.

Second, the only way that the media can change this public opinion is to go overboard the other way, by attacking Barack Obama with multiple feeding frenzies.

HCDI (which now has the Barack Obama live evaluation) basically confirms the SUSA findings that Palin reached deep into Republicans and also into Independents- "Among the independents who watched her speech, respondents who report that they will “probably” or “definitely” vote for McCain increased by 10% across both genders..."

Also, notice that the CBS poll is out, and it follows exactly what I talked about in the previous post, highlighting what Palin means for the Republicans.

Yes, CBS showed movement from a 48-40 Obama lead to a 42-42 tie in a matter of days after Palin became the VP. Why? Because Republicans, especially many white Christians, who were sitting out the election are not going to vote, now are off the bench and on the field for McCain-Palin.

Those party ID numbers don't come out of a hat, they are self-selected at the beginning of the poll by asking whether people are going to vote or not.

Look at the shift that happened (and this was prior to the speech):

                 CBS Now       CBS Last Week
Democrats        35            35
Republicans      31            26
Independent      34            38

And look, if we pull out a 4% spread on election day, I'll be very pleasantly surprised. It's much more likely that we are going to see the same result as in '04 and '06, a tie or 2% lead. That's it.

Marc Ambinder and his readers make an interesting catch:

Several readers noticed the disclaimer at the end of John McCain's new ad, "Alaska Maverick."

They're paid for from his general election account. That's the law; from September 1 onward, those ads can't come from the primary kitty. McCain '08 becomes McCain-Palin '08 on Friday, but the ad -- which will air on national cable -- CNN and Fox -- tonight -- comes from the $84 million grant McCain will receive from the government.

Jonathan Martin notes that as this ad is running in "key states" it may in fact amount to one of the "video press release[s]" the McCain campaign has so often released in the hopes of conning the Beltway media to disseminate their message largely free of charge. Fair enough. But this does mark a turning point in the campaign in which the McCain campaign -- unlike the Obama campaign, which did not opt into the public financing system -- but go up against a spending ceiling. Yes, John McCain can benefit from advertisements by the Republican National Committee. However, because these independent expenditures by law are not allowed to be coordinated with campaign headquarters, McCain and his closest advisors cannot have a hand in their creation -- a problem, as noted a moment ago, not faced by Barack Obama.

Of course Obama needs to raise serious money in order to make this tradeoff pay off -- much more than the $47 million raised by the McCain campaign in August (we don't yet have Obama's August numbers, but here's to hoping they exceed any and all expectations, which they might as they could for the first time include serious general election dollars, which the Obama campaign has yet to put much effort into raising). But if Obama can continue to break fundraising records, this monetary and control disparity could be one of the most noticeable differences between the campaigns going forward.

Last night my first reaction to Sarah Palin's speech was that it was a good one, perhaps a great one, but that it might have been a little too hot for the audience. Judging by the reports on focus groups that watched Palin's speech, it looks like my reaction might not have been that far off. First, here's Jake Tapper:

The Detroit Free Press invited a panel of Michigan voters to weigh in on Gov. Sarah Palin's speech last night. Their reactions run the gamut, but the independents didn't seem to care for her very much.

Now here's Seth Colter Walls:

In two different focus groups of Clinton-supporting Nevada women -- married and unmarried -- conducted immediately after Gov. Sarah Palin's Wednesday night speech to the Republican National Convention, a few common reactions quickly took shape.

First, women in both groups were impressed with Palin's speaking ability and poise. But they were hardly convinced that she was qualified to be vice president, or that she truly represented the "change" they were looking for, especially in light of what was deemed an overly harsh "sarcasm" pervading her address.

I'd recommend you reading through both stories to get a fuller picture of the reaction of these largely undecided voters, but what comes out is what is reported in the lede: Palin may have delivered a barnburner, and she might have gone far in helping John McCain shore up the Republican base, but when it came to wooing skeptical voters her performance was underwhelming -- and perhaps even counterproductive.

Americans aren't looking for another Newt Gingrich -- a hyper-partisan fire-breather who puts ideology and party over country -- but from the sounds of last night's speech, which again was very impressive, Palin might be just another Gingrich (or Spiro Agnew, if you prefer). Let's wait to see the polling before jumping to too hard of conclusions, both because these initial reactions are preliminary and unrepresentative and because the coverage of the speech matters nearly as much as the speech. But for now it looks like the speech might not have been the great success many within the GOP had hoped for.

Update [2008-9-4 18:54:10 by Jerome Armstrong]: Well, take te Detroit one with a large dose of skeptcism. Looks like they got played for 'Independent' alright.

38,379,000 watched Obama

37,244,000 watched Palin

24,029,000 watched Biden

Will John McCain come in last tonight?  But that many people watched Palin. So, we will quickly see the results of this in the polling, or not.

The latest Democracy Corps/Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (D) poll (852 LVs, Aug. 20-26) shows real trouble for Elizabeth Dole and John McCain in North Carolilna this November.

First off, in a head to head match-up, Elizabeth Dole is now running 5 points behind her MyDD Road to 60 challenger Kay Hagan.

Hagan 50
Dole 45

This appears to be more an anti-Dole vote than a pro-Hagan vote. First of all, only 46% of those polled are even familiar with Kay Hagan but they appear to really want Dole gone: her job approval rating is down to 38%.

Public Policy Polling, which conducted a poll around the same time and found Hagan up 3 points over Dole, attributes Hagan's lead to DSCC's strong ads against Dole:

What the DSCC is doing to Elizabeth Dole right now is the political equivalent of a punch in the gut from Muhammad Ali.

Kay Hagan has taken a narrow lead in North Carolina's Senate race after trailing by 14 points just two months ago.

There's not much doubt where the momentum is coming from. 69% of voters in the state have seen the television ads about Elizabeth Dole's #93 ranking for effectiveness in the US Senate, and among those folks Hagan has an even wider 45-39 lead. Dole's saving grace is voters who don't watch much tv- she leads 45-34 with those who have not seen the ad.

At the presidential level, while John McCain is still holding Barack Obama off, albeit by a measley 3 points (47-44), there are some real warning signs for the Republican, namely that his message simply is not getting out to North Carolina voters. Not only does Obama do better than McCain on the issues of the economy and jobs, energy and even taxes, on a personal level:

Over half (55 percent) of North Carolina voters believe the statement "has good judgment" describes Barack Obama and a majority of voters (54 percent) reject the notion that "not ready to lead" describes Obama.

In other words, Barack Obama's message about himself is getting through, John McCain's message about Obama is not.