State Senator Opponent Rank Cash on Hand-R Cash on Hand-D Bush 2004 2000 Re-elect #
Montana Conrad Burns Jon Tester 5 $2,207,000 $515,000 Bush 59% Burns 51%
Pennsylvania Rick Santorum Bob Casey 4 $9,439,000 $3,709,000 Kerry 51% Santorum 53%
Ohio Mike DeWine Sherrod Brown 4 $6,635,000 $1,209,000 Bush 51% DeWine 60%
Missouri Jim Talent Claire McCaskill 3 $6,922,000 $2,685,000 Bush 53% Talent 50%
Rhode Island Lincoln Chafee Sheldon Whitehouse 3 $846,000 $1,537,000 Kerry 59% Chafee 57%
Tennessee OPEN (Frist)--Corker Harold Ford 3 $1,233,000 $1,844,000 Bush 57% Frist 65%
Virginia George Allen James Webb 2 $5,569,000 $2,731,000 Bush 54% Allen 52%
Democrat Republican Challenger *Rank *
New Jersey Bob Menendez Thomas Kean 3 $2,279,000 $7,392,000 Kerry 53% Corzine 50%
Michigan Debbie Stabenow Michael Bouchard 5 $530,000 $4,369,000 Kerry 51% Stabenow 49%
Washington Maria Cantwell Michael McGavick 5 $2,777,000 $5,121,000 Kerry 53% Cantwell 49%
Maryland OPEN (Sarbanes)--Cardin Michael Steele 5 $3,118,000 $1,625,000 Kerry 56% Sarbanes 63%
District Representative Opponent Rank Cash on Hand-R Cash on Hand-D Bush 2004 PVI* 2004 Re-elect # Ads Comments
TX-22 OPEN (DeLay)--Sekula-Gibbs Nick Lampson 5 $30,000 $2,156,000 Bush 64% R+15 DeLay 55% DCCC
AZ-08 OPEN (Kolbe)--Graf Gabrielle Giffords 5 $82,000 $335,000 Bush 53% R+1 Kolbe 60% DCCC down 45-37  10/4/06
OH-18 OPEN (Ney)--Padgett Zack Space 5 $256,000 $206,000 Bush 57% R+6 Ney 66% down 45-35 10/4/06
PA-10 Don Sherwood Chris Carney 5 $479,000 $301,000 Bush 60% R+8 Sherwood 93% DCCC down 47-38 10/4/06
FL-16 OPEN (Foley)--Negron Timothy Mahoney 4 N/A $344,000 Bush 54% R+2 Foley 68% down 48-41   10/17/06
CO-07 OPEN (Beauprez)--O'Donnell Ed Perlmutter 4 $1,233,000 $253,000 Kerry 51% D+2 Beauprez 55% down 45-39  10/10/06
NC-11 Charles Taylor Heath Shuler 4 $238,000 $669,000 Bush 56% R+7 Taylor 55% DCCC down 51-40 10/4/06
IN-02 Chris Chocola Joe Donnelly 4 $1,554,000 $333,000 Bush 56% R+4 Chocola 54% DCCC down 48-39 10/4/06
IN-08 John Hostettler Brad Ellsworth 4 $270,000 $413,000 Bush 62% R+9 Hostettler 53% DCCC not listening; down 47-34  9/25/06
IN-09 Mike Sodrel Baron Hill 4 $1,139,000 $968,000 Bush 59% R+7 Sodrel 49% DCCC down 46-38 10/4/06
OH-15 Deborah Pryce Mary Jo Kilroy 4 $1,819,000 $775,000 Bush 50% R+1 Pryce 60% DCCC polling within margin of error
NY-26 Tom Reynolds Jack Davis 4 $2,844,000 $63,000 Bush 55% R+3 Reynolds 56% internals within 4  10/4/06
NY-24 OPEN (Boehlert)--Meier Michael Arcuri 4 $571,000 $381,000 Bush 53% R+1 Boehlert 57% DCCC Republican up 42-31
PA-07 Curt Weldon Joe Sestak 4 $1,153,000 $994,000 Kerry 53% D+4 Weldon 59%
OH-02 Jean Schmidt Vic Wulsin 3 $224,000 $25,000 Bush 63% R+13 Schmidt 52% DCCC internals within margin of error
IA-01 OPEN (Nussle)--Whalen Bruce Braley 3 $140,000 $131,000 Kerry  53% D+5 Nussle 55% DCCC internal +8; up 47-34 10/4/06
PA-06 Jim Gerlach Lois Murphy 3 $1,303,000 $1,403,000 Kerry 51% D+2 Gerlach 51% down 43-41  10/4/06
CT-02 Rob Simmons Joe Courtney 3 $956,000 $210,000 Kerry 54% D+8 Simmons 54% DCCC up 44-41  10/4/06
CT-04 Chris Shays Diane Farrell 3 $1,610,000 $812,000 Kerry 52% D+5 Shays 52% DCCC up 46-41  9/25/06
IL-06 OPEN (Hyde)--Roskam Tammy Duckworth 3 $1,340,000 $206,000 Bush 53% R+3 Hyde 56% down 2 10/11/06
PA-08 Mike Fitzpatrick Patrick Murphy 3 $1,133,000 $500,000 Kerry 51% D+3 Fitzpatrick 55%
WA-08 Dave Reichert Darcy Burner 3 $1,301,000 $779,000 Kerry 51% D+2 Riechert 52%
KY-04 Geoff Davis Ken Lucas 3 $1,555,000 $610,000 Bush 63% R+12 Davis 54% up 42-36  10/4/06
MN-06 OPEN (Kennedy)--Bachmann Patty Wetterling 3 $703,000 $801,000 Bush 57% R+5 Kennedy 54% up 46-43  10/4/06
OH-01 Steve Chabot John Cranley 3 $1,387,000 $771,000 Bush 51% R+1 Chabot 60%
WI-08 OPEN (Green)--Gard Steven Kagen 3 $285,000 $146,000 Bush 55% R+4 Green 70% DCCC
NM-01 Heather Wilson Patricia Madrid 3 $1,353,000 $539,000 Kerry 51% D+2 Wilson 54% DCCC even 44-44  10/4/06
VA-02 Thelma Drake Phil Kellam 3 $713,000 $140,000 Bush 58% R+6 Drake 55% DCCC down 46-42  10/4/06
FL-13 OPEN (Harris)--Buchanan Christine Jennings 3 $135,000 $283,000 Bush 56% R+4 Harris 55% up 46-38 September 06
FL-22 Clay Shaw Ron Klein 2 $1,869,000 $493,000 Kerry 52% D+4 Shaw 63% DCCC
NY-29 Randy Kuhl Eric Massa 2 $582,000 $263,000 Bush 56% R+5 Kuhl 50%
CT-05 Nancy Johnson Chris Murphy 2 $1,081,000 $1,022,000 Kerry 49% D+4 Johnson 60% DCCC up 4  10/11/06
KY-03 Anne Northup John Yarmuth 2 $1,542,000 $418,000 Kerry 51% D+2 Northup 60%
NV-03 Jon Porter Tessa Hafen 2 $189,000 $456,000 Bush 50% D+1 Porter 54% DCCC up 47-37    9/25/06
NY-20 John Sweeney Kirsten Gillibrand 2 $795,000 $587,000 Bush 54% R+3 Sweeney 66% DCCC nonpartisan poll up 19
NH-02 Charlie Bass Paul Hodes 2 $503,000 $216,000 Kery 52% D+3 Bass 59% DCCC
TX-23 Henry Bonilla Ciro Rodriguez 2 $2,243,000 ($65,000) Bush 65% R+13 Bonilla 69%
WY-AL Barbara Cubin Gary Trauner 2 $325,000 $333,000 Bush 69% R+19 Cubin 55%
CO-04 Marilyn Musgrave Angela Paccione 2 $932,000 $309,000 Bush 58% R+9 Musgrave 52% up 46-36
NE-01 Jeff Fortenberry Maxine Moul 2 $457,000 $370,000 Bush 63% R+12 Fortenberry 54%
CA-04 John Doolittle Charles Brown 2 $774,000 $74,000 Bush 61% R+11 Doolittle 65%
NY-25 Jim Walsh Dan Maffei 2 $531,000 $137,000 Kerry 50% D+3 Walsh 91% DCCC internals up 4
KY-02 Ron Lewis John Michael Weaver 2 $827,000 $271,000 Bush 65% R+13 Lewis 68%
CA-11 Richard Pombo Jerry McNerney 2 $1,140,000 $152,000 Bush 54% R+3 Pombo 61%
CO-05 OPEN (Hefley)--Lamborn Jay Fawcett 2 $93,000 $47,000 Bush 66% R+16 Hefley 70% tied at 37  10/12/06
NJ-07 Mike Ferguson Linda Stender 1 $926,000 $296,000 Bush 53% R+1 Ferguson 57%
AZ-05 J.D. Hayworth Harry Mitchell 1 $1,349,000 $566,000 Bush 54% R+4 Hayworth 60%
PA-04 Melissa Hart Jason Altmire 1 $1,115,000 $274,000 Bush 54% R+3 Hart 64%
Partisan Voting Index Ranking System
*PVI is Charlie Cook's Partisan Voting Index means that he takes the two major party vote for the 2000 & 2004 Presidential elections and measures the difference between the Presidential election vote in those two combined elections and the country as a wh 5--seat is most likely gone unless significant turn of events
4--leaning Democrat; expect to lose most of these seats unless there's serious change
3--true toss-up, slight wind could push either way; environment is critical to these races
2--leaning Republican; if there's a wave, some could be in trouble
1--should be ok but if there's a wave, we could see a surprise
*DCCC=Dems are running ads *Green=favorable trend
* Most Cash on Hand as of September *White=neutral
*All polling data is from independent and considered legitimate sources *Red=unfavorable trend