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| MyDD
2006 House Forecast |
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| By
Chris Bowers |
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| Final
Update, November 6, 8:45 pm eastern |
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| Current
Projection: |
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| Democratic
Gain of 23-29 |
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| Democratic
Majority of 226-232 |
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| Key |
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| Seats
are listed alphabetically by tier. The order of seats within a tier does not
imply a ranking within the tier |
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| PVI
= Partisan Voting Index. Negative numbers indicate a Republican advantage.
R's indicate that redistricting has taken place since 2004 |
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| PVI
was created by the Cook Political Report and is reprting here courtesy of the
Cook Political Report |
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| Dem
Cash % = The percentage of cash the Democrat has relative to the Republican
in the race |
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| In
the polls column, the number next to the poll indicates which party is ahead.
The number next to the word "internal" indicates which party
commissioned the poll |
| If
a poll does not have "internal" next to it, it was an independent
poll |
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| Previous
= winning margin for incumbent party in previous election |
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| Open
= Open Seat |
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| Frosh
= This seat is held by a freshman |
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| 2nd
Run = Challenger has run for seat before |
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| Overall Projected Gains: 14-20 |
Projected Gains: 26-31 |
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DEMOCRATIC TARGETS |
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| District |
Status |
Republican |
Democrat |
PVI |
Dem Cash % |
Polls |
Previous |
Open |
Frosh |
2nd run |
Notes |
| Tier 0 |
Projected Gains: 11-13 |
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| AZ-08 |
Lean Dem |
Graf |
Giffords |
-1.4 |
148% |
|
54-41 D, 53-41 D, 48-38 D |
24.0% |
X |
|
NRCC concedes this seat |
| CO-07 |
Lean Dem |
O'Donnell |
Perlmutter |
2.3 |
50% |
|
54-38 D, 54-40 D, 51-46 D |
11.9% |
X |
|
Colorado progressive movement should be able to take this |
| CT-05 |
Lean Dem |
Johnson |
Murphy |
3.7 |
34% |
|
46-43 D, 46-42 D, 51-43 D |
22.0% |
|
Another Murphy American looking strong |
| FL-22 |
Lean Dem |
Shaw |
Klein |
3.6 |
26% |
|
49-40 D, 50-48 D |
28.0% |
|
Early voting gives me pause, but not much |
| IN-02 |
Lean Dem |
Chocola |
Donnelly |
-4.3 |
33% |
|
50-47 D, 52-39 D, 48-45 D |
9.7% |
|
X |
Donelly holding steady |
| IN-08 |
Lean Dem |
Hostettler |
Ellsworth |
-8.5 |
153% |
|
53-43 D, 50-43 D |
8.4% |
|
Internal NRCC memo says Hostettler "not listening" |
| IA-01 |
Lean Dem |
Whalen |
Braley |
4.8 |
281% |
|
56-35 D, 49-42 D |
11.9% |
X |
|
NRCC conceedes this deat |
| NM-01 |
Lean Dem |
Wilson |
Madrid |
2.4 |
40% |
|
50-48 D, 49-45 D, 53-44 D |
8.9% |
|
Madrid with edge, but Wilson has survived before |
| NY-20 |
Lean Dem |
Sweeney |
Gillibrand |
-2.5 |
92% |
|
46-43 D, 53-42 D |
32.0% |
|
Sweeney is toast after latest scandal |
| NY-24 |
Lean Dem |
Meier |
Acuri |
-0.6 |
122% |
|
53-42 D |
23.0% |
X |
|
Arcuri way up in only indy poll |
| NY-25 |
Lean Dem |
Walsh |
Maffei |
3.4 |
26% |
|
45-41 D, 53-44 D |
100.0% |
|
Had a great time knocking on doors for Maffei |
| NC-11 |
Lean Dem |
Taylor |
Shuler |
-7.1 |
177% |
|
52-43 D, 48-43 D, 53-44 D |
9.8% |
|
Better politician than QB? |
| OH-18 |
Lean Dem |
Padgett |
Space |
-6.1 |
57% |
|
53-33 D |
32.0% |
X |
|
Space has it now |
| PA-06 |
Lean Dem |
Gerlach |
Murphy |
2.2 |
73% |
|
49-44 D, 51-46 D |
2.0% |
|
X |
Close race in '02 and '04, but '06 is a Dem year |
| PA-07 |
Lean Dem |
Weldon |
Sestak |
3.6 |
138% |
|
51-42 D, 45-44 D |
18.4% |
|
New scandal is final stitch in Weldon's straight jacket |
| PA-10 |
Lean Dem |
Sherwood |
Carney |
-8 |
62% |
|
50-38 D, 47-38 D |
100.0% |
|
Forget 50%--Sherwood under 40% |
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| Tier 1 |
Projected Gains: 11-12 |
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| AZ-05 |
Toss-up |
Hayworth |
Mitchell |
-3.7 |
42% |
|
48-46 D |
22.0% |
|
Mithcell mo' in latest poll |
| CA-11 |
Toss-up |
Pombo |
McNerney |
-3 |
28% |
|
48-46 D |
22.0% |
|
X |
NRCC has spent close to a million here now |
| CO-04 |
Toss-up |
Musgrave |
Paccione |
-8.5 |
33% |
|
44-43 R, 48-45 D |
6.2% |
|
Paccione moves into position |
| CT-02 |
Toss-up |
Simmons |
Courtney |
7.6 |
22% |
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48-47 D, 47-42 R, 51-45 D |
8.4% |
|
X |
2nd bluest seat held by a Republican |
| CT-04 |
Toss-up |
Shays |
Farrell |
5.4 |
50% |
|
51-44 D, 52-43 R, 47-43 D |
4.8% |
|
X |
Seriously conflicting polls here |
| FL-13 |
Toss-up |
Buchanan |
Jennings |
-4.1 |
51% |
|
49-47 D |
10.6% |
X |
|
If the $5M Buchanan has already spent isn't enough, then? |
| FL-16 |
Toss-up
|
Not Foley |
Mahoney |
-2.4 |
108% |
|
48-41 D, 50-43 D |
36.0% |
X |
|
Republicans win big ruling, race could be a suprirse |
| IL-06 |
Toss-up
|
Roskam |
Duckworth |
-2.9 |
14% |
|
54-40 D, 48-47 D, 46-42 R |
11.6% |
X |
|
DCCC goes in for $3M here |
| IL-10 |
Toss-up
|
Kirk |
Seals |
3.6 |
34% |
|
48-46 D |
28.0% |
|
Seals's own internals are not this optimstic |
| IN-09 |
Toss-up
|
Sodrel |
Hill |
-7.1 |
86% |
|
46-44 R, 48-46 D, 51-43 D |
0.5% |
|
X |
X |
Former incumbent Hill lost by 0.5 in 2004 |
| KY-03 |
Toss-up
|
Northup |
Yarmuth |
2.4 |
27% |
|
50-45 D, 52-46 D, 48-42 R |
22.0% |
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First race to wtch when the polls close |
| KY-04 |
Toss-up
|
Davis |
Lucas |
-11.7 |
23% |
|
49-43 R, 45-42 D, 50-46 D |
10.5% |
|
X |
X |
If we don't win KY-04 this year, 2012 will be next chance |
| NH-02 |
Toss-up
|
Bass |
Hodes |
2.7 |
43% |
|
44-39 D, 47-46 R, 47-44 R |
20.0% |
|
X |
Hodes makes up thirty points in two months |
| NY-19 |
Toss-up
|
Kelly |
Hall |
-1.5 |
20% |
|
49-47 D, 48-46 R internal D |
34.0% |
|
Dance with me… |
| NY-29 |
Toss-up
|
Kuhl |
Massa |
-5.2 |
61% |
|
53-42 D |
9.9% |
|
I've decided to wait for a confirming poll on this race |
| NC-08 |
Toss-up
|
Hayes |
Kissel |
-3 |
0% |
|
48-44 D |
12.0% |
|
This would be a huge grassroots upset |
| OH-01 |
Toss-up
|
Chabot |
Cranley |
-0.5 |
16% |
|
48-46 D |
20.0% |
|
Others are downgrrading this--not sure why |
| OH-15 |
Toss-up
|
Pryce |
Kilroy |
-1.1 |
39% |
|
53-41 D |
20.0% |
|
I've decided to wait for a confirming poll on this race |
| PA-08 |
Toss-up
|
Fitzpatrick |
Murphy |
3.4 |
142% |
|
47-42 R, 50-47 D |
11.0% |
|
X |
|
You can trust Patrick Murphy |
| TX-22 |
Toss-up
|
Write-ins |
Lampson |
-14.5 |
425% |
|
36-28 D |
14.0% |
X |
|
X |
Strange ballot situation is why we can win this |
| VA-02 |
Toss-up
|
Drake |
Kellam |
-5.9 |
23% |
|
51-43 R, 50-45 D, 46-44 R |
10.3% |
|
X |
|
Yet more conflicting polls |
| WA-08 |
Toss-up
|
Reichert |
Burner |
2.3 |
60% |
|
51-45 R, 49-47 D |
4.8% |
|
X |
|
This should have been easier for Burner |
| WI-08 |
Toss-up |
Gard |
Kagen |
-3.7 |
51% |
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51-45 D, 43-43 |
40.0% |
X |
|
Self-financing Kagen with poll lead, but turnout a worry |
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| Tier 2 |
Projected Gains: 4-5 |
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| AZ-01 |
Lean Rep |
Renzi |
Simon |
-2.2 |
14% |
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48-46 R, 45-32 R |
23.0% |
|
Not seeing the movement here I would have expected |
| ID-01 |
Lean Rep |
Sali |
Grant |
-18.9 |
64% |
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38-34 D, 39-37 R, 49-43 R |
40.0% |
X |
|
What will air traffic control do with so many pigs flying? |
| IA-02 |
Lean Rep |
Leach |
Loebsack |
6.9 |
23% |
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50-48 R |
19.7% |
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Should have stayed with my gut and never moved this down |
| KS-02 |
Lean Rep |
Ryun |
Boyda |
-7.3 |
41% |
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50-41 D, 45-41 R, internal D |
15.0% |
|
X |
Both polls are internals |
| KY-02 |
Lean Rep |
Lewis |
Weaver |
-12.9 |
28% |
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46-43 D, 50-36 R |
36.0% |
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Both polls are internals |
| MN-01 |
Lean Rep |
Gutknecht |
Walz |
-0.9 |
37% |
|
50-47 R |
25.0% |
|
Map expander race |
| MN-06 |
Lean Rep |
Bachmann |
Wetterling |
-5.1 |
142% |
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49-42 R, 52-42 R, 48-47 R |
8.0% |
X |
|
X |
This one is going south |
| NV-02 |
Lean Rep |
Heller |
Derby |
-8.2 |
66% |
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47-39 R, 48-40 R |
40.0% |
X |
|
Seat is red, but open |
| NV-03 |
Lean Rep |
Porter |
Hafen |
1.0 |
242% |
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46-39 R, 51-44 R |
14.0% |
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Reid aide Hafen with large cash lead |
| NJ-07 |
Lean Rep |
Ferguson |
Stender |
-0.6 |
32% |
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46-43 R |
15.3% |
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Stender creeping up |
| NY-03 |
Lean Rep |
King |
Mejias |
2.1 |
9% |
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51-44 R |
26.0% |
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No Republican in New York is safe |
| NY-26 |
Lean Rep |
Reynolds |
Davis |
-3.5 |
4% |
|
50-46 R, 47-46 R |
12.0% |
|
X |
Davis isn't exactly the most energtic campaigner |
| OH-02 |
Lean Rep |
Schmidt |
Wulsin |
-13.1 |
117% |
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48-45 D, 51-46 R |
4.0% |
|
X |
|
Once again, the pigs are taxing on the runway |
| OH-12 |
Lean Rep |
Tiberi |
Shmansky |
-0.7 |
72% |
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51-46 R |
24.0% |
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Could be an Ohio wave this year |
| PA-04 |
Lean Rep |
Hart |
Altmire |
-2.6 |
25% |
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51-47 R, 46-42 R |
27.0% |
|
Big blue wave in PA |
| VA-10 |
Lean Rep |
Wolf |
Feder |
-5.3 |
72% |
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47-42 R |
28.0% |
|
This is a shcok--but that is the way this year is going |
| WY-AL |
Lean Rep |
Cubin |
Trauner |
-19.4 |
102% |
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44-40 R, 44-37 R |
13.5% |
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Already weak Cubin collapsing |
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| Tier 3 |
Projected Gains: 0-1 |
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| CA-04 |
Likely Rep |
Doolittle |
Brown |
-10.9 |
32% |
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50-43 R, 49-46 R |
30.0% |
|
A progressive in a very red seat |
| CA-50 |
Likely Rep |
Bilbray |
Busby |
-4.6 |
167% |
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55-41 R |
4.5% |
|
Doesn't look like it will happen for Busby |
| CO-05 |
Likely Rep |
Lamborn |
Fawcett |
-15.7 |
115% |
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51-42 R, 47-40 R |
44.0% |
|
Never did trust the poll with 26% undecided |
| FL-24 |
Likely Rep |
Feeney |
Curtis |
-3.1 |
5% |
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45-43 R |
100.0% |
|
More surprises pop up every day |
| IL-14 |
Likely Rep |
Hastert |
Laesch |
-4.8 |
2% |
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52-42 R |
38.0% |
|
Hastert manages to throw everyone else under the bus |
| NH-01 |
Likely Rep |
Bradley |
Shea Porter |
-0.1 |
11% |
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51-37 R, 48-40 R |
26.0% |
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If she wins, Carol Shea Porter will become a legend |
| WA-05 |
Likely Rep |
McMorris |
Goldmark |
-7.1 |
124% |
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51-46 R |
20.0% |
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DCCC is giving Goldmark support |
| Others: |
CO-06, FL-08, FL-09, IL-11, IL-19,
IN-03, MI-07, MI-08, MI-09, MI-11, MN-02, NE-01, NE-03, NY-13, NY-23, TX-23,
WV-02 |
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| Overall |
Projected Gains: 2-3 |
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REPUBLICAN TARGETS |
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|
Status |
Republican |
Democrat |
PVI |
Dem Cash % |
Polls |
2004 |
Open |
Freshman |
2nd run |
Notes |
| Tier 1.5 |
Projected Gains: 1 |
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| GA-12 |
Toss-up |
Burns |
Barrow |
-2 |
177% |
|
42-39 D |
NA |
|
X |
X |
Barrow won this lean-dem district as an open seat in 2004 |
| IN-07 |
Toss-up |
Dickerson |
Carson |
8.7 |
1485% |
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48-43 D, 45-42 R |
10.0% |
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WTF?! Is Carson sick or something? |
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| Tier 2 |
Projected Gains: 1-2 |
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| GA-08 |
Lean Dem |
Collins |
Marshall |
-8 |
190% |
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50-34 D, internal D |
NA |
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After redistricting, Marshall switched from GA-03 to GA-08 |
| IL-08 |
Lean Dem |
McSweeney |
Bean |
-5.2 |
47% |
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50-45 D, 42-39 D, 50-31 D |
3.4% |
|
X |
|
Bean hasn't exactly kept the base excited |
| IA-03 |
Lean Dem |
Lamberti |
Boswell |
1.4 |
48% |
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53-41 D
|
10.5% |
|
If Boswell can't win this year, he doesn't deserve seat |
| VT-AL |
Lean Dem |
Rainville |
Welch |
9.1 |
221% |
|
51-41 D
|
NA |
X |
|
I'm just not seeing this, but the polls are kind of close |
| WV-01 |
Lean Dem |
Wakim |
Mollohan |
-5.7 |
77% |
|
52-42 D |
36.0% |
|
NRCC porbably dropped race because of Wakim cash |
| Others: |
AR-02, CO-03, OH-06,
OH-13, SC-05, TX-17 |
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| Mean
PVI of top 69: -3.0 |
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| DCCC
Cash on hand: $35.93M |
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| NRCC
Cash on hanf: $39.16M |
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